It's Time for VBelo Rankings
This is probably over-due, but the wait is over. Let's take a look at how the VBelo Model sees the Men's Volleyball landscape.
We are well into March and it is (finally) time to talk about the VBelo ratings and rankings. I still haven’t finished a proper explainer of how the model works, but I’m tired of holding onto these numbers until I find time to write more. Also, there are just so many fun graphs to make!
Before we get to it, let’s start with some housekeeping.
These Numbers Aren’t Like Other Numbers
I want to make sure this is clear. VBelo cares about winning. If a team wins, their score goes up. If they lose it goes down. There are a lot of other factors, but that is the basic concept. Beating a good team, according to VBelo, is weighted more than beating an average team. Beating a team in a sweep is better than beating them in five.
There will likely be some surprises in the rankings. VBelo has a good memory and isn’t swayed by recency bias. But that also means it might be a little slower to reflect shifts. In the same way, a team has to earn points to move up, it also has to lose points to go down.
Is this a poll? No. Do polls provide a view of the league? Yes. Does VBelo provide a different view that you can use in conversation with polls and your gut? 100%
Okay, now let’s get to the actual rankings.
2024 VBelo Rankings
Yesterday, Hawaii was crowned the newest #1 by the AVCA Coaches Poll. Despite their four losses, VBelo still thinks that UCLA is at the top. This was in large part due to how strong VBelo thought they were to begin the season. The model wasn’t alone in this as UCLA started the season off as the heavy favorite in the polls.
At the top, UCLA, Hawaii, and Long Beach are all grouped pretty close together. It seems clear to VBelo that those are the three best teams in the country right now. The next four spots are grouped tightly as well. These are all serious contenders who can win on any given night against any given team. But, sometimes they don’t win.
I won’t go through the entire list, but one thing I appreciate about the model is that both the IVA and NEC made it into the top 20. I think the polls vastly underestimate conferences that don’t go to the National Tournament. There are good teams all over the league and it is a (mathematical) crime that they do not get their dues in the polls.
But enough from me, what do you think of the ratings? What surprised you? What seems about right?
Also, you can check out the entire rankings at the link below.
Post Match Press Conference - Hawaii
Here is the press conference from Hawaii’s victory over UC Irvine on Sunday.1
Match Recaps
Non-conference
Loyola Chicago (75%) def. Princeton (25%)
3-1 (25-18, 22-25, 25-17, 25-21)
Maryville (96%) def. Clarke University (4%)
3-0 (30-28, 25-22, 25-19)
Thomas More (40%) def. Edward Waters (60%)
3-0 (25-15, 28-26, 25-14)
Saint Francis (95%) def. Tusculum (5%)
3-0 (25-15, 25-23, 25-22)
Match Projections
Non-conference
Harvard (51%) vs UC San Diego (49%)
D'Youville (76%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (24%)
I had some technical problem after the match so it took me a little longer to upload than expected.
I'll start by noting that I graduated from UCSB many years ago (all of the home matches were at Robertson Gymnasium since this was pre-Thunderdome). I was surprised to not see UCSB in this Top 20 until I remembered that current VBelo #20 Daemen University won (3 to 2) against UCSB at the Harvard Invitational. UCSB's win against UCLA earlier this year was noteworthy but it's very interesting to see the VBelo Model's current "landscape" results. Keep up the good work. (And a very big "Go Bows!")
I do feel that the polls are good for publicity. The chart showed which teams are doing solid work all season. Winning matters and sometimes losing too many times to strong opponents means that one lost. A team must win some of those tough contests and SFU, Daemen, LMU and others in the 10- 20 range have done so.