VBelo Scouting Report: May 3, 2022

First Round Matches

May 03, 2022

The tournament continues today with two first round matches (that I can’t officially call quarter finals, but I really want to.) The winners of these matches will make it to the semifinals where the number 1 and 2 seed are patiently waiting.

While it is not tournament related, it is still worth mentioning that Indiana officially made boy’s volleyball an emerging sport yesterday. This is a huge victory for everyone out there trying to #GrowTheGame. The more states that support volleyball at the high school level, the greater pressure to add more collegiate teams.

Other big news that came out yesterday morning was the AVCA All-American teams. Some very well-deserved awards earned all across the country. (The announcement is at the bottom of this newsletter if you want to see all the names.)

But you aren’t here for a news roundup, you are here for projections. So let’s project!

If you enjoy the VBelo Scouting Report, go ahead and let someone who loves volleyball know about it.

Numbers before teams are their seeds in the tournament. Technically the only two seeded teams are 1 and 2, but the NCAA can’t stop me from saying what we all know to be true.

#5 Pepperdine (34%) at #4 UCLA (66%)

UCLA is the favorite to win this match, which no one is surprised about. Even without the home court advantage, VBelo has them as a stronger team. Nate Ngo (USA Volleyball) has a really great breakdown of some of the advanced stats between these two teams. Highly recommend checking out the thread.
The winner of this match will face Long Beach in the semifinals on Thursday.

#3 Hawai’i (62%) vs #6 North Greenville (38%)

After showing their strength on Sunday, North Greenville has better odds at pulling off the upset over Hawai’i than Pepperdine does against UCLA. These two teams have never faced each other, but VBelo doesn’t care about things like that. That being said, Hawai’i has never lost to a Conference Carolinas team.
The winner of this match will face Ball State in the semifinals on Thursday.

Tournament Projections

As a reminder, here is where the tournament projections stand right now.

Interestingly, the teams with the best odds to make the finals are currently Ball State and Long Beach. This might not be too surprising since they are the top two seeds, but depending on today’s outcomes, these projections change fairly dramatically.

So let’s take a look.

What If…

Time to play a fun/terrifying game where we look into the future at potential scenarios. With the first round matches being played later today, let’s take a sneak peak into what could happen.1

If a cell is red, it decreased by more than 4%, if it is dark green is increased by more than 4%.

UCLA & Hawai’i Win

This is the most likely scenario. Both favorites win and thus increase their odds while the top two seeds see their chances fall. There is still room for anyone to win, but this is where we start to see some separation.

UCLA & North Greenville Win

If Cinderella continues to dance, that would definitely help UCLA and (of course) North Greenville. Long Beach sees a small loss in its finals chance, but both Long Beach and Ball State see their chances to win the tournament stay pretty flat.

Pepperdine & Hawai’i Win

Again, Long Beach and Ball State see their championship odds stay the same. This scenario is interesting because it produces the two closest matchups in the finals.

Pepperdine & North Greenville Win

This is the chaos scenario. All of the remaining teams see their odds go up. The chances of any team winning it all basically becomes 1 in 4. This happening is…unlikely.

Who To Cheer For

Hawai’i Fans

Pepperdine - this gives the Rainbow Warriors the best chances in the finals.

North Greenville Fans

Pepperdine - the chaos scenario benefits the Cinderella Crusaders the most.

Pepperdine Fans

North Greenville - the Waves also need the chaos scenario to stay in contention.

UCLA Fans

North Greenville - having Hawai’i out of the picture only helps the Bruins.

Ball State & Long Beach Fans

Not UCLA & Hawai’i - The Cardinals and the Beach are helped most by the chaos scenario but really the only outcome that hurts their odds is UCLA and Hawai’i winning, the most likely scenario.