VBelo Scouting Report: May 06, 2023
VBelo Scouting Report: May 06, 2023
Match #832 - A clash of titans for all the marbles
121 days ago, Lincoln Memorial traveled to Malibu, CA to face the Pepperdine Waves and the 2023 season officially began. Today, 4 months later, the 832nd match of the season will be played to crown the newest champion in NCAA Men’s Volleyball. The UCLA Bruins are searching for their record-extending 20th title, while the Hawaiʻi Rainbow Warriors hope to be the first team in nearly 4 decades to win three championships in a row. Hollywood writers may be on strike, but it sure feels like this match was written for maximum drama.
It would be a shame not to give a huge shoutout to both Penn State and Long Beach on their phenomenal seasons. Both of these programs had excellent teams and could have easily been in the finals themselves. I am a little sad that the tournament doesn’t have a third place match any longer. So I went ahead and had VBelo run the numbers for this imaginary match. Penn State comes out slightly ahead with a 61% chance of winning, but that is far from a sure thing. Even though they will not add a championship trophy to their resumes, their seasons were everything but a failure. Well done!'
Quick programming note
Today’s watch will be nationally televised on ESPN2. If you aren’t able to make it to the game in-person, I hope you are able to turn on a television to the match. The more viewers, the bigger the impact it could have on the NCAA on their support of this sport. Tell your family. Tell your neighbors. Go to the local sports bar and change all of the TVs to ESPN2. Get creative!
VBelo and the Finals
This match is close and I mean really close!
Some of you might be wondering why this match is so close. If you aren’t interested in some of the math, you can probably keep scrolling. For everyone else, here is what is going on in the model.
Hawaiʻi has 12 more elo points than UCLA. This is about a 1% advantage, if nothing else was added into the calculation. Since this match will be on a neutral court, there is no home court advantage added to either team. There is travel though, and that is reflected in VBelo. Simply put, the farther a team has to travel, the more elo points they lose for the calculations. This doesn’t affect their actual VBelo rating, just their rating used to project individual matches. For this match, UCLA is about 2,300 miles from Pauley Pavilion and Hawaiʻi is a whopping 4,800 miles from the Stan. After subtracting the travel penalty, these two teams are only separated by 1 elo point! *dramatic gasp*
To be fair, there are tons of things that aren’t factored into the model. Most of them are difficult to gauge the impact of so they probably never will be. For instance, fatigue. Not only did UCLA have the earlier match on Thursday, but their match only went to 3 whereas Hawaiʻi started later and had to play 5 sets. The model also doesn't know that Dimitrios Mouchlias was set a season high 44 times less than 48 hours ago. Or that UCLA had a season low 6 service errors in their last match. There are a ton of story lines (like Thelle winning Player of the Year or Rowan being a freshman) that can’t be measured, and that is fine. That is where analysts can add their take into what could happen in this match. No matter what way you look at it though, these two teams are elite.
Keys to the Match
Serve and Pass
This is the obvious answer. UCLA is known for strong service pressure. This leads to keeping their opponents out of system, but it also leads to a lot of service errors. If the Bruins keep the service errors low (like they did against Long Beach), this could be a very short match.
That being said, Hawai’i struggled with their passing against Penn State but they had the personnel to overcome that. In complete contrast to UCLA, Hawai’i had their most service errors in a match this season (21) against Penn State in the semifinals. They will need to clean that up or at least stay even with UCLA to stay in the match.
Middles
Good passing leads to more attempts by middles. Whoever is able to get their middles going consistently will very likely win this match. Both sides have top tier middles that will take advantage of any and all mistakes from the other side of the net. I wouldn’t be shocked if the set outcomes are directly linked to the hitting performance of the middles.
Poise
This is a big stage and both of these teams know it. Neither program is used to losing this year. Both Hawai’i and UCLA have only played 1 match that has gone to 5 sets. Keeping their minds and bodies focused will be key for both sides. This is one of those areas that you can’t measure and that is mostly unseen. But being able to face adversity and keep going is probably the most important thing.1
Match Projections
Non-conference
Hawai'i (50.18%) vs UCLA (49.82%)
This is about volleyball and this is also not about volleyball.