VBelo Scouting Report: February 22, 2023
Volleyball thy name is parity
I wrote about the Conference Carolinas yesterday and they did not disappoint on the court! Mount Olive, who has struggled in conference play this year, was able to hold off an early challenge from Barton. Belmont Abbey got the important home victory over Emmanuel which was a fairly even match in VBelo but looking at how these two teams are playing wasn’t that surprising. A few minutes later, Erskine knocked off reigning conference champ North Greenville in a four set upset. Of the three teams tied at 4-2 in the CC, Erskine holds the head-to-head advantage over both. If this is what parity in the Carolinas looks like, then sign me up!
In case you are wondering, the Carolina convergence is alive and well after yesterday’s matches. Three teams (Erskine, Emmanuel, and Mount Olive) are all within 6 VBelo points of each other right now. They are not all trending in the same direction and we are seeing some important shuffling going on. Don’t worry, I made an update graph (because I love charts).
We have 3 of the 4 remaining unbeaten teams in action today. Hawai’i will be hosting Long Island for the second year in a row. Grand Canyon will begin a very tough series at #7 Pepperdine. And Benedict (who is 3-0) will have their first match since February 7th against the Reinhardt Eagles from the NAIA. VBelo has it at about a 32% chance that all three teams win today.1
We also have two great matches in the MIVA. Loyola has been perfect in conference play and would very much like to keep it that way. They will be on the road against a tough Lewis squad. In the closest VBelo matchup of the day, we have Purdue Fort Wayne visiting McKendree. Both of these teams are 1-3 in the MIVA, but don’t let that fool you. The home team Bearcats hold the slightest (basically non-existent) edge at 50.3% for this match. This shouldn’t be a surprise by now, but watching the MIVA is almost always the right decision.
Match Recaps
ConfCarolinas
Erskine (33%) def. North Greenville (67%)
3-1 (16-25, 25-20, 25-22, 25-21)
Jason Sall (Ersk) with a phenomenal double-double (17 kills & 13 digs) in the huge upset win for the Flying Fleet.
Belmont Abbey (47%) def. Emmanuel (53%)2
3-0 (26-24, 25-16, 25-18)
Ethan Rehmann (BAC) had a career high 8 blocks in the sweep.
Mount Olive (84%) def. Barton (16%)
3-1 (23-25, 25-19, 25-19, 25-16)
Mount Olive had an all-around team effort with 4 players with double-digit kills and 3 players with double-digit digs.
Non-conference
Concordia-Irvine (36%) def. UC San Diego (64%)
3-1 (25-23, 22-25, 25-15, 25-21)
Uriel Batista (CUI) finished with a match high 20 kills. This was his 4th match this season with at least 20 kills.
Missouri Baptist (26%) def. Maryville (74%)
3-1 (23-25, 25-17, 25-14, 25-16)
Missouri Baptist is ranked #11 in the NAIA and the next poll comes out today.
Match Projections
MIVA
Purdue Fort Wayne (50%) vs McKendree (50%)
Loyola Chicago (55%) vs Lewis (45%)
MPSF
Grand Canyon (49%) vs Pepperdine (51%)
Non-conference
Long Island (8%) vs Hawai'i (92%)
Westcliff (23%) vs CSU Northridge (77%)
Reinhardt (30%) vs Benedict (70%)
Tweet of the Day
As is always the case, the match involving an NAIA team is not as well calibrated as the other matches so this projection has a larger margin of error than usual.
Yesterday’s newsletter had the wrong home team so the projections have been updated here.
