VBelo Scouting Report: April 22, 2023
It's time to crown some champions and punch some tickets
Let’s start with the big news out of the SIAC. Congratulations to the Edward Waters Tigers on claiming their first SIAC Tournament Championship. EWU ends their season on an 8-match winning streak after going undefeated in conference play and their conference tournament. In just its second year, it looks like we are starting to get a nice MVB rivalry between Central State and Edward Waters. This is exactly what growing the game looks like!
The Conference Carolina finals are set with North Greenville and King vying for the crown. Although King was the lower seed, they were favored by VBelo in their match yesterday. This was in no small part due to their home court advantage from hosting the CC tournament.
Over in the Big West, Hawaiʻi took care of business and UC Irvine shocked many by taking down Long Beach. VBelo gave the Anteaters a 32% chance of winning this match. Interestingly, this was the third time these teams have played and UCI has now won a third of them (33%). With a top team going down in conference semifinals, this could lead to some interesting decisions tomorrow depending on how today pans out.
RPI Updates & What If…
Heading into the final matchday, the top 10 teams all stayed the same for RPI.
We will have all of the matches for RPI by the end of the day, but let’s play some fun what if scenarios.
Chalk: All the #1 seeds win
I know it’s not exciting but let’s at least see what it looks like.
In terms of RPI, Long Beach and Grand Canyon would have the edge for the at-large bid, in terms of RPI.
West Coast Chaos: UCLA and Hawaiʻi lose
If all the other #1 seeds win, I think it would be pretty clear that UCLA and Hawaiʻi would get the at-large bids. But what if we add more chaos…
Top 3 Chaos: UCLA, Hawaiʻi, and Penn State lose
This is where things start to get rough. For RPI, UCLA and Penn State have the clear advantage. If I were the committee, I would be praying extra hard to the volleyball gods that this doesn’t happen. If one of these three teams isn’t in the national tournament, then the best teams will not be in the tournament.
Lower Seeds FTW: All the #1 seeds lose
Here is my big take away: the top 5 seem pretty locked in, no matter what happens. If the selection committee weights RPI highly, then the two at-large bids will be clear.
The fine folks over at Off The Block put out their latest Bracket Projection and it looks like RPI is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. The biggest factor will be the outcome of the three top teams: Hawaiʻi, UCLA, and Penn State.
Match Recaps
Big West
Hawai'i (87%) def. UC Santa Barbara (13%)
3-0 (25-18, 25-19, 25-18)
UC Irvine (32%) def. Long Beach (68%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-17, 25-20)
ConfCarolinas
North Greenville (71%) def. Belmont Abbey (29%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-22, 25-21)
King (63%) def. Erskine (37%)
3-0 (25-17, 25-21, 25-21)
SIAC
Edward Waters (53%) def. Central State (47%)
3-1 (25-17, 25-21, 22-25, 25-21)
Match Projections
Big West Championship
Hawai'i (75%) vs UC Irvine (25%)
ConfCarolinas Championship
North Greenville (58%) vs King (42%)
EIVA Championship
Princeton (17%) vs Penn State (83%)
MIVA Championship
Ohio State (36%) vs Ball State (64%)
MPSF Championship
UCLA (82%) vs Stanford (18%)
NEC Championship
Long Island (39%) vs Saint Francis (61%)