VBelo Preseason Report: MPSF
VBelo Preseason Report: MPSF
The hunt for the elusive trophy
Welcome to the VBelo Preseason Report for the Mountain Pacific Sports Federation (MPSF)! In this 8-part series, we will look at the state of Men’s Volleyball as we begin the 2023 NCAA season. Each conference profile will give a quick overview of how those teams look as they head into their 2023 campaign.
If you want to see the other conference profiles, I will update links as they are released:
Preseason Ranking
Disclaimer
VBelo only knows the information that is fed into it. Since there have been zero matches in 2023 so far, it doesn’t have a complete picture of teams yet. The best it can do is see where a team finished last season and adjust for players lost in the offseason. The model will learn more about these teams the same way we all will: seeing who wins matches. While these preseasons rankings don’t foretell where the teams will end the season (it can’t predict the future), it shows us where VBelo thinks they are starting from relative to the rest of the nation.
So let’s get to it! Here is how the MPSF teams stack up to begin the season.
In a surprise to basically no one, UCLA is the clear front-runner in the MPSF. There is almost a 100 point VBelo gap between them and the second place team, Pepperdine. There is actually quite a bit of agreement between the coaches’ poll and the VBelo preseason ratings.
The only real difference is the Stanford Cardinal. VBelo still has them down in 6th while the coaches bumped them up to number three. The separation between teams 3-6 in VBelo is pretty tight so it’s not unreasonable to have Stanford in third, especially with a crazy low Retention metric (more below).
Stanford is a great example of why I am a fan of elo models. From watching them play last season and knowing that they are returning basically the entire team, I would say they are absolutely a top 3 team in the MPSF (and totally deserve the one #1 vote they received). But here is the thing: they haven’t actually proven that they are that good yet. As mentioned in the disclaimer, these rankings are not where these teams will end the season, but where they begin. It is up to the players and coaches to perform and show the model how strong their teams really are. Then, VBelo will adjust appropriately.
There is no way around it, last season was rough for BYU. Over the course of the season, they dropped over 130 VBelo points! In fact, they started the season at the top of the MPSF in VBelo by about 100 points. I mention this not just to point out that this will be an important year for the Cougars, but to show that performance really can have a major impact on a team’s VBelo throughout the season.
Lastly, one of the major moves this season (apart from Kevin Kobrine transferring from UCLA to USC) was the departure of Head Coach David Hunt from Pepperdine. Hunt wasted no time as the Associate Head Coach at Texas by winning the Women’s D-I National Championship. Pepperdine is now under the leadership of Jonathan Winder, former national player of the year and NCAA champion with the Waves. Since this hire was announced way back in May, Winder has likely had ample time to build the chemistry and ethos that he wants for this storied program.
It is also worth mentioning that both Pepperdine and Concordia Irvine have a retention metric over 0.5, which means they lost over half of their starting lineup. Although they both lost quite a bit, their goals this season will likely look different. Pepperdine will be looking to establish a new coaching era and stay near the top of the MPSF, while Concordia will hope to gain momentum to move out of the bottom spot in the conference.
Roster Retention
To help make sense of the Roster Retention scores above, here is a deep dive into how this metric is calculated.
USC had an incredible roster in 2022 and they have lost a huge portion of it for 2023. With a retention metric of 0.89 (4th highest nationally), the Trojans lost close to the equivalent of 5 1/2 full time starters. With such major turnover, it will be interesting to see how they do this season, especially early on.
On the complete other end of the spectrum, Stanford has the lowest non-zero retention metric at 0.01 despite the fact that they will be missing two players that saw court time last season.1 This is the same program that was disbanded after the 2021 season but rose from the ashes in glorious fashion. After just missing out on the national tournament last year, this team is poised to make a big splash this year.
Watchlist
Here are some interesting story lines and things to watch for this season:
Trophy Hunt: 2023 - Although the MPSF is one of the strongest conferences in the country, they have not won the national tournament since 2013. In that same time they have been the runner-up 5 times.
Stanford - Tons of returners. Momentum from last year. The memory of being cancelled. This team has all of the pieces for a movie-ready script. Get your popcorn.
Outside Lopes - Janke and Gianni might be the best OH pair in the country. Facing one is scary, let alone two! GCU will likely ride or die on their shoulders this year.
BYU - This will be a telling year for where BYU is in the rebuilding process. Are they still putting the pieces together or are they ready to climb to the top of the Mountain (PSF)?
Conclusion
Even though there was a lot of experience lost in the offseason, there is so much talent in this conference. UCLA is positioned to be a power house, yet again, as they look towards Fairfax, VA, the site of the national championship in 2023. Even though there is a clear favorite, I would say that there are 6 teams in the MPSF who could win their conference tournament. Due to the strength and parity here, I wouldn’t be surprised if there are two MPSF teams in the national tournament come May.
Gabriel Miranda & Aaron Li played in 4 sets/3 matches & 1 set/1 match, respectively.