VBelo Preseason Report: MIVA
VBelo Preseason Report: MIVA
It's a bird, it's a plane...it's the MIVA!
Welcome to the VBelo Preseason Report for the Midwestern Intercollegiate Volleyball Association (MIVA)! In this 8-part series, we will look at the state of Men’s Volleyball as we begin the 2023 NCAA season. Each conference profile will give a quick overview of how those teams look as they head into their 2023 campaign.
If you want to see the other conference profiles, I will update links as they are released:
Preseason Ranking
Disclaimer
VBelo only knows the information that is fed into it. Since there have been zero matches in 2023 so far, it doesn’t have a complete picture of teams yet. The best it can do is see where a team finished last season and adjust for players lost in the offseason. The model will learn more about these teams the same way we all will: seeing who wins matches. While these preseasons rankings don’t foretell where the teams will end the season (it can’t predict the future), it shows us where VBelo thinks they are starting from relative to the rest of the nation.
So let’s get to it! Here is how the MIVA teams stack up to begin the season.
This is the fourth in the series of VBelo preseason profiles and the MIVA has the largest variance from VBelo to the coaches’ poll.
Just like Miley Cyrus, the MIVA came into last season like a wrecking ball1. Ball State had an all-round fantastic season, finishing 4th nationally in both hitting percentage and digs per set while also coming in 2nd in blocks per set. It appeared that it was Donan Cruz's world, and we were all just living in it (and I'm not complaining.) They did lose some important players (particularly all-American setter Quinn Isaacson) but they still find themselves on top of the coaches' poll and the VBelo preseason rankings.
The MIVA looks to be very competitive this year, with 3 teams receiving multiple first place votes in the coaches’ poll. Looking at VBelo, Ball State has some clearance between #2 Lewis. However, 2 through 6 look to be relatively grouped together which means any of those teams could easily climb several spots quickly. Ohio comes in lower in VBelo which may point to an important part of the VBelo model. VBelo doesn’t care about reputation. The upside of this is that it treats every team exactly the same. The downside is that the model doesn’t know that this is The Ohio State and can very easily challenge for the MIVA title on any given year. The model also doesn’t know (yet) how much of an impact a single player leaving could mean. For Lewis, this means the true impact of losing all-American Tyler Mitchem is probably not fully shown yet in the ratings.
Roster Retention
To help make sense of the Roster Retention scores above, here is a deep dive into how this metric is calculated.
The national average for the retention metric this year was 0.38 which translates to every team losing about 2 full time starters. In the MIVA, all but one team (Purdue Fort Wayne) is above this average. It is clear that this will be a different MIVA than we saw last year. The good news, in terms of competition, is that most teams lost about the same amount of experience points. Obviously not all players are created equally, but the equality in loss will hopefully help keep the strong parity in the conference.
The one team that stands out is Quincy. The Hawks have the second highest roster loss of any team in the nation. This is not great for a team that finds itself at the bottom of the rankings. While their VBelo rating and retention metric don’t look great, I will be the first to say that these numbers do not capture everything. At the end of the season, it will be worth seeing how their VBelo score changed relative to their preseason rating.
There are too many incredible players to name that left the MIVA this offseason. This just means that there are that many more spots for newer players to appear and make a name for themselves and their programs. The MIVA is ready for some new stars and fans are ready to cheer them on.
Watchlist
Here are some interesting story lines and things to watch for this season:
Kaleb Jenness - He was on another level last season with 4.65 K/set (2nd nationally). If he is asked to carry a greater load of sets, there is a possibility of improving on this number.
Purdue Fort Wayne - If I had to make a sleeper pick to throw the MIVA into (amazing) chaos, it’s the Mastodons. They return a lot of talent and led the conference in Aces/set. Keep an eye on them.
Quincy - Having the goal to not finish last is tough only because the MIVA is stacked with good teams. We could see Quincy make some solid improvements this year, even if their overall record doesn’t show it.
Coach Hawks - Loyola has a new head coach in John Hawks (formerly UCLA Assistant Coach). The Ramblers have produced some incredible talent the last few years and Hawks will surely add to this program’s strength.
Conclusion
Last season, the MIVA was the conference to watch. It had everything you wanted. Great players. Thrilling comebacks. Underdog wins. With the departure of so much experience, we may see the MIVA revert back to the mean a little bit. If Ball State comes back to earth and Quincy shows improvement, the parity of this conference would be phenomenal. Given the relatively high VBelo ratings, there is a lot to love in this conference. They may be in the middle of the country, but they can definitely work their way to the top of the rankings.
Bonus: MIVA Media Day
The fine people at Off the Block sponsored a great media day for the MIVA this week. Teams brought coaches and players to answer questions and talk about the upcoming season. Below is a link to a playlist of all of the videos. Enjoy!
Wrecking Ball State would be a great Before & After puzzle for Volleyball Wheel of Fortune.