Number of the Day
0.1412 - Today’s number is very in the weeds. I was curious to see how the model was performing this season, so I looked at Mean Squared Error (read the article from the beginning the season if you want to learn about it). Specifically, I wanted to look at matches that only feature D-I/II teams. There have been 253 of those matches this season so far, and the MSE = 0.1412. This is 0.0002 “better” than last season, which is technically on pace to be the best season yet for the model. We will see how that holds up.
VBelo Model Talk: 2026
The season is right around the corner and there is so much volleyball to talk about. But before the first serve, we need to talk about the engine under the hood. I’ve spent the offseason overhauling the VBelo Model, the math that powers the win probabilities you see in your inbox every morning.
Yesterday’s Scores
MPSF
Pepperdine (99%) def. Vanguard (1%)
3-0 (25-12, 25-14, 25-21)
Non-conference
Edward Waters (42%) def. Warner (58%)
3-1 (16-25, 25-20, 25-18, 25-20)
Kentucky State (36%) def. Midway (64%)
3-0 (33-31, 25-20, 25-17)
UMES (84%) def. Thomas More (16%)
3-1 (25-13, 25-12, 27-29, 25-16)
Saint Xavier (38%) def. Roosevelt (62%)
3-1 (25-22, 31-33, 25-14, 25-18)
Today’s Match Projections
ConfCarolinas
Erskine (3%) vs Belmont Abbey (97%)
Non-conference
UC Merced (35%) vs Simpson (65%)
Kentucky State (32%) vs Midway (68%)
Warren Wilson (48%) vs King (52%)
Southern California (23%) vs UC Irvine (77%)
Concordia (7%) vs UC San Diego (93%)
Will Belmont Abbey become a 3 time NCAA team? The march starts today.
UMES has been winning this can be something.