The Mighty Can (and Will) Fall
The Mighty Can (and Will) Fall
On any given day, every team is beatable. Parity is great for the sport and great for competition.
For the second straight week, the #1 ranked team in the country falls. The newly crowned Ohio State hosted Penn State and lost 3-1. The Buckeyes were without the services of their star outside Jacob Pasteur. This helped Penn State keep their opponent to a lowly .200 hitting percentage. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions hit .341
This was a major turnaround for Penn State who averaged less than .200 hitting at the First Point Collegiate Challenge last weekend. They were already a top team in the country, but an away win against MIVA-favorite Ohio State will look great on the Penn State resume come April.
The health of Jacob Pasteur will be something to follow. Ohio State said that this "lower-body injury" would keep him out of the lineup "indefinitely."1 Hopefully, it is a quick turnaround, and he can return to the court to help this strong Ohio State squad.
HUGE Upset
Sure, the #1 team being beaten was surprising, but VBelo had it as a fairly close match (60/40). The upset of the night went to UCSB pulling off the improbable over defending champs UCLA in Westwood! The 5-set stunner sent a message to the country: everyone is beatable.
For anyone who read yesterday's post on "go-to hitters", Geste Bianchi led the way with 60 attacks! I guess he wanted to increase his league-leading attack total even more. Bianchi finished with a double-double (27 kills & 11 digs) to lead the Gauchos.
On the other side of the net, Sophomore setter phenom, Andrew Rowan, continues to impress. He finished with an impressive and well-balanced stat line.
56 assists, 3 kills, 3 aces, 9 digs, & 7 blocks.
We have not had a triple-double since 2022, but Rowan is on the shortlist of players who might be able to pull it off, given the right conditions.
In terms of VBelo, this was MASSIVE. UCSB had a 3% chance of winning. I saw another model that had them even lower at a 1% chance.2 This is the single largest upset for VBelo, surpassing the 5% upset of Grand Canyon by Concordia last season.
Personally, I am thrilled to see this huge of an upset in the model. A 1% chance doesn't mean something can't happen. It means that if these teams played 100 times, UCSB would win once. Yesterday was the once. If UCLA were to win, the model would not have learned as much from this match. Winning is the biggest contributor to increasing a team's VBelo rating. I don't see this as the model being "wrong." Instead, it shows how impressive of a win this was for UCSB.
I will write more about this soon, but the point of the VBelo model isn’t to predict who will win. The point is to show the probability of each team winning. Without knowing who is likely to win, we have to guess when a win is impressive. When each team has a VBelo Rating (kind of like a power ranking), the model can tell us how likely they are to win against different teams in different situations (e.g. home, away, neutral courts). Some of the newer readers may be wondering exactly how this model works. Don’t fear, I’m planning a massive explainer soon. For now, just know that this win by UCSB has a significant impact on UCLA’s VBelo rating.
Friday Pick Three
Pepperdine at Long Beach - In the battle of unbeatens, who will reign supreme? This match may give us our best look of the season for both of these teams. VBelo doesn't have this as particularly close, but I could see this turning into an interesting match.
Harvard at Sacred Heart - VBelo has this as the closet match of the day. Harvard comes in just ahead of SHU at 53%. This could be a fun back-and-forth one to watch earlier in the volleyball day.
UC Irvine at BYU - The Cougars have had a fantastic start to the season. The Anteaters are looking for a resume-building win in Provo this weekend. VBelo likes BYU at home, but you can't count UC Irvine out as long as Hilir Henno is on the court.
Match Recaps
Non-conference
Hawai'i (83%) def. Purdue Fort Wayne (17%)
3-1 (22-25, 25-13, 25-21, 25-14)
UC Santa Barbara (3%) def. UCLA (97%)
3-2 (30-28, 23-25, 25-23, 23-25, 15-13)
Penn State (40%) def. Ohio State (60%)
3-1 (25-21, 21-25, 25-19, 29-27)
Maryville (21%) def. Lindenwood (79%)
3-1 (26-24, 25-22, 25-27, 25-22)
Southern California (91%) def. Central State (9%)
3-0 (25-13, 25-12, 25-16)
Daemen (96%) def. Warner (4%)
3-0 (25-12, 25-7, 25-19)
Match Projections
Non-conference
Hawai'i (85%) vs Purdue Fort Wayne (15%)
Pepperdine (14%) vs Long Beach (86%)
UC Irvine (26%) vs BYU (74%)
UCLA (94%) vs UC San Diego (6%)
Emmanuel (6%) vs Lincoln Memorial (94%)
Erskine (68%) vs Benedict (32%)
King (45%) vs McKendree (55%)
American International (13%) vs Merrimack (87%)
D'Youville (64%) vs Dominican (36%)
St. Thomas Aquinas (10%) vs Fairleigh Dickinson (90%)
George Mason (32%) vs Lewis (68%)
Harvard (53%) vs Sacred Heart (47%)
NJIT (30%) vs Saint Francis (70%)
Morningside University (16%) vs Missouri S&T (84%)
Missouri S&T (84%) vs Viterbo University (16%)
Long Island (26%) vs Loyola Chicago (74%)
Long Island (26%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (12%)
Eastern Mennonite (12%) vs Mount Olive (88%)
Eastern Mennonite (12%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (63%)
Mount Olive (84%) vs Virginia Wesleyan (16%)
https://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/news/2024/1/25/mens-volleyball-no-1-ohio-state-fall-3-1-to-no-9-penn-state
https://masseyratings.com/cmvol2024/8141