The Final Day
Match #845 for all the marbles
After 844 matches, we have come to the grand finale. When the season began, the coaches thought the top two teams in the country were UCLA and Long Beach. As we reach the end of the season, those same teams are vying to be the 2024 National Champions.
In terms of VBelo, these are the top two teams in the country. Not only are they at the top, but there is a gap of almost 100 VBelo points between them and the next closest team. AND these two teams are only separated by only 9 points! This is the setup for a great matchup.
In terms of projections, VBelo has this as exceptionally close. Since the match will be played at Long Beach, the model is giving the Beach a slim edge with a 56% chance of adding to the trophy case. With these odds, it is almost a coin flip.
I went one step further to answer two “what-if” questions. First, what if the match was played at UCLA? In that situation, UCLA would be the favorite at 58%. Still not an overwhelming likelihood. Second, what if this was a neutral court? In this scenario, UCLA held the slimmest edge at 51.2%! I mention these what-if scenarios to point out the obvious: these teams are very evenly matched.
In the regular season, these two teams had a home-and-home series where (unsurprisingly) the home team won. The overall series between these two programs leans slightly in favor of the Beach at 20-16. You add that to the All-American presence on the floor. The championship match will contain 6 of the nation’s 12 first-team All-Americans! Star-studded is an understatement.
I didn’t need a model to tell me that this match could go either way. But, it is fun to know that the model aligns with the general thought that these two teams are elite. Serving will be a huge storyline. The middles will be looking to get active early and often. The comparisons of Liberos will be constant. This is the championship!
Tune in to ESPN to watch the match at 2 pm Pacific / 5 pm Eastern / 11 am Hawaii.
The more eyes the better. Tell your friends. Tell your enemies. Ask bars to turn all of their TVs to ESPN. Show the NCAA that this sport deserves more airtime.
Match Projections
Non-conference
UCLA (44%) vs Long Beach (56%)
Great coverage all season!