Round One to the Rainbow Warriors
Round One to the Rainbow Warriors
But it was fantastic to watch and I am so glad we get to do it again on Friday. But first, great matches today.
In the late-night matchup, two top programs in the country matched up on O'ahu. After dropping the first set, Hawai'i stormed back and won the next three sets by a combined 26 points over Stanford.
At this early point in the season, Freshman Setter Tread Rosenthal is serving up a storm. Nationally, he leads all setters in aces per set. He added two more to his total last night on 20 errorless serves.
Today, we have some very close matchups according to the VBelo model. There are three matches where the “favorite” has less than a 60% chance of winning. We even have a 50/50 match between UCSD and Concordia!
I love it when close VBelo matches turn into close matches. So I decided to look quickly at what happened to close VBelo matches last season. I only looked at matches where the VBelo projections were in the 40-60% range. This is how the matches panned out.
These matches definitely skew away from being a sweep, compared to overall averages. Can I guarantee that close vBelo matches will not be a sweep? No. Can I say it is more likely they will be close? Absolutely! If you are interested in some of the numbers of how likely sweeps and 5-set matches are in general, I wrote about that last month.
Match Recaps
MIVA
Ohio State (64%) def. Lewis (36%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-21, 25-23)
Jacob Pasteur (OSU) continues to shine as he finished with 17 kills. He has had double-digit kills in all nine matches he has played in this season.
Non-conference
Hawai'i (86%) def. Stanford (14%)
3-1 (21-25, 25-15, 25-22, 25-12)
Alaka‘i Todd & Tread Rosenthal (Hawaii) combined for 34 errorless serves and 3 aces. That is scary consistent.
CSU Northridge (96%) def. UC Merced (4%)
3-1 (19-25, 25-21, 25-15, 25-20)
CSUN got the win, but Kyle Hobus did not get a break. He led all players with 14 kills.
UC Irvine (83%) def. Southern California (17%)
3-1 (19-25, 25-22, 30-28, 27-25)
Hilir Henno (UCI) had a career-high 29 kills. Interestingly, this was his first match since 3/10/2023 without an ace.
Rivier (68%) def. American International (32%)
3-1 (22-25, 25-21, 25-20, 25-22)
AIC had two players (Alejandro Miranda & Robert Santana) who had at least 16 kills and hit over .450!
Lindenwood (71%) def. Missouri S&T (29%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-20, 25-22)
Lindenwood had a season-high 8 team blocks and a season-low 70 attacks. The best offense is a good defense, am I right?
Match Projections
MIVA
McKendree (47%) vs Quincy (53%)
McKendree is scrappy on defense. They are second in the nation with 9.79 digs per set.
NEC
D'Youville (16%) vs Daemen (84%)
D'Youville is one of the three undefeated teams in the country. This will be their toughest test so far this season.
Non-conference
Pepperdine (58%) vs UC Santa Barbara (42%)
Get used to hearing the name Geste Bianchi (UCSB). He (still) leads the nation in kills per set at 4.74. (Second place is at 4.18 kills per set.)
UC San Diego (50%) vs Concordia (50%)
Concordia is currently tied for the fewest matches played in the country at 4.
Mount Saint Vincent (39%) vs Dominican (61%)
After their impressive 30 ace match, Dominican is currently 3rd in the nation in aces per set.
NJIT (81%) vs Sacred Heart (19%)
NJIT is currently enjoying a 9-match win streak against Sacred Heart.
Long Island (15%) vs BYU (85%)
Long Island may be a long shot, but they already have their first win over a ranked opponent this year.
Long Island may be the oldest team depending on who starts on the floor tonight by average age and that's saying something 😀
Hawaii/Stanford was a fun one, and totally worth staying up. Tread is a beast already. Very curious to see if/how Charlie uses Louis on Friday.