Are Sweeps More Common This Year?
Are Sweeps More Common This Year?
Does it feel like the early season is just a bunch of sweeps? How different is this from recent seasons? Some answers and more questions.
Yesterday, we started another great week of volleyball. The weather has been playing a role in several postponed matches in the Northeast. Scheduling is already difficult, but finding time for postponed matches is even harder. Best of luck to all the programs looking to alter their schedules at this point in the season. I believe in you!
One stat I am keeping a close eye on this season is Aces. Ben Harrington (who you might remember from his NCAA record-setting performance) continues to serve up a storm. Yesterday, he added three more aces, bringing his season total up to 20. So far, we are getting an incredible season from the service line, and I can't wait to see more of it.
How Sweep It Is?
I noticed yesterday that all the matches were sweeps. That got me thinking about how many matches have been sweeps this season. Early season matches have a wide variety in competitiveness. It is not uncommon to think non-conference matches can be very one-sided. But has this season been any different?
So, I looked at the numbers since 2022. Both 2022 and 2023 had remarkably similar results in terms of how often matches had 3, 4, or 5 sets. A little over half of all matches finished in a sweep. The fan-coveted 5-set match happened less than 20% of the time.
This season, the numbers are very similar. Even with the very small sample size (91 matches), the percentages look to be about the same. There have been slightly more sweeps, but not by much. Interestingly, the 5-set percentage is exactly the same as last year. If anything, we are seeing fewer 4-set matches.
I would imagine the percentages will revert to the mean of the past two years, and we will get fewer sweeps and more 4-set matches going forward. What do you think though? Will 2024 be the year of the sweep? Or will 5-setters rule the season?
Match Recaps
Non-conference
CSU Northridge (91%) def. California Lutheran (9%)
3-0 (25-15, 25-15, 25-23)
Princeton (69%) def. UC San Diego (31%)
3-0 (25-18, 25-21, 25-21)
Ball State (98%) def. Trine (2%)
3-0 (25-16, 25-20, 25-19)
Thomas More (40%) def. Central State (60%)
3-0 (25-17, 25-21, 25-21)
Match Projections
Non-conference
Long Beach (96%) vs Merrimack (4%)
McKendree (10%) vs UC Irvine (90%)
Lees-McRae (17%) vs Queens (83%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (62%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (38%)
Quincy (38%) vs Central State (62%)
It will be a pleasure to be in the gym as Roberts Wesleyan begins their inaugural season this evening.