National Tournament Seeding Predictions
Time for some good, old-fashioned (amateur) bracketology.
When asked about the VBelo model, I repeatedly try to emphasize that it doesn’t say what will happen, but what is likely to happen. The percentages that the model spits out aren’t predictions. I don’t deal much in predictions.
That being said, I am going to talk about seeding predictions. The irony of that is not lost on me. I don’t have any special insight into what the committee is thinking and I don’t have a special model just to figure out the at-large bids and the seeds. But, I do think that we can intuit a good deal about the tournament while we (im)patiently wait.
The NCAA Selection Show will air today (4/27) at 4 pm ET / 1 pm PT / 10 am HT on NCAA.com
National Tournament Seeding Predictions
Long Beach
Hawaii
UCLA
Loyola
Pepperdine
Penn State
Fort Valley State / Belmont Abbey (Opening Round)
Daemen
Disclaimer: I could definitely be wrong about these.
Prediction Rationale
Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up.
#8 Daemen - The Wildcats are the Cinderella of the 2025 tournament. They have the lowest RPI of any AQ team. Even though they don’t have the resume of some of the other teams, that doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous. I know Billy Wieberg doesn’t care what the odds are and that this team will fight to the very end.
#7 Fort Valley State / Belmont Abbey - The NCAA has a strong preference for only paying for bus travel and not air travel for the play-in match.1 If Daemen is the #8 seed, the closest distance team to the Wildcats is Penn State. When I look at Daemen and Penn State, it doesn’t make sense to have those two teams compete for the same spot in the Elite Eight. Penn State just has a better overall resume and comes from a stronger conference. The next pair of teams that are physically close is FVSU and BAC. These two teams are closer in terms of RPI so I think the committee will have them play the Opening Round match.2
#6 Penn State - In terms of RPI, the Nittany Lions are very close to both Belmont Abbey and Fort Valley State. Since they come from a stronger conference, I think they get slotted in into the sixth seed.
Let’s jump to the top now.
#1 Long Beach - It felt like Long Beach was a lock for the top spot before the Big West Tournament even began. They have been dominant this season, with just 3 losses. Even though they are 1-2 against Hawaii, I think the rest of their resume still gives them the top spot in Columbus.
#2 Hawaii - The Big West has been the strongest conference all season. For Hawaii, they have the second best RPI (behind LBSU) and are one of only 2 teams to hand Long Beach a loss. And they did it twice! They probably have an argument to be the top seed, but I think they get placed at two. This would mean the next possible Hawaii/Long Beach match would be for a national championship. The drama!
#3 UCLA - When UCLA lost in the MPSF semifinals, they removed the chance of there being three Big West teams in the tournament. UCLA has put together an incredibly strong season and finish third in RPI. They are also 2-0 in the their head-to-head matchups with UC Irvine this season (the next closest team to getting an at-large). The chance at the three-peat is alive for the Bruins.
#4 Loyola - The Ramblers have shown that they are a powerhouse from week 1 of the season. They are one of only two teams to win their conference tournament as a one seed. I would be very surprised if they fell any lower than four.
#5 Pepperdine - Given everything above, the MPSF champion was going to get this spot, regardless of who won. The Waves definitely fall above Penn State, but they just don’t have the wins to justify putting them above Loyola.
We will see how well this ages in a few hours. Who do you think the committee will select? What seeds will everyone get? What will it take to get more teams in this tournament?
The cutoff is 400 miles for when the NCAA pays for land vs air. FVSU and BAC are 250 miles away from each other.
This match should be at Ohio State and it is ridiculous that this match is cast to the side like this.