How long can Long Beach stay undefeated?
With just one undefeated team left in the country, it's time to look at the odds of keeping the winning ways alive for the Beach.
A Clear Number One
The unanimous #1 team for the past several weeks has been Long Beach State University. Maybe it is because they have a generational talent in their setter, Moni Nikolov. Maybe it is because their team stats rankings are otherworldly.1
Hitting Percentage (.410%) - 1st
Aces Per Set (2.41) - 1st
Blocks Per Set (2.511) - 2nd
Kills Per Set (13.41) - 2nd
Realistically, it is because they haven’t lost a match. With their win yesterday, Long Beach is now 15-0 to start the season. Now that they have made it to conference play with an unblemished record, let’s take a snapshot of the rest of their schedule. Quick note: the VBelo odds will change since all of these teams will play matches between now and their future matchups (so don’t carve these numbers in stone!)
The Path Ahead
With their 13 remaining regular-season matches, Long Beach has 8 home matches in the Pyramid. This will definitely help their chances. But, two of those road games are at Hawaii. So things could definitely get interesting. Here is what Long Beach’s schedule looks like today.
Sacred Heart (1%) at Long Beach (99%)
CSUN (8%) at Long Beach (92%)
Princeton (3%) at Long Beach (97%)
NJIT (2%) at Long Beach (98%)
NJIT (2%) at Long Beach (98%)
UC Irvine (17%) at Long Beach (83%)
Long Beach (73%) at UC Irvine (27%)
Long Beach (95%) at UCSB (5%)
UCSB (3%) at Long Beach (97%)
Long Beach (61%) at Hawaii (39%)
Long Beach (61%) at Hawaii (39%)
Long Beach (87%) at UCSD (13%)
UCSD (8%) at Long Beach (92%)
Here is a look at this matches visually. The green columns are matches that have already happened and the blue matches are the matches yet to come.
The only match this season where Long beach did not have more than a 50% chance of winning was against UCLA, back in mid-February. Needless to say, the model likes their chances of winning, in general.
So, what are the odds?
Now it is time for some very rough calculations. I am going to look at the chances that Long Beach reaches different milestones this season. This will be done by multiplying the odds that the Beach wins those games (anyone else having flashbacks to combinations and permutations in school?) So, here we go.
Long Beach goes 20-0: 85% chance
All of these next matches are at home, so that is a huge help. Twenty is a nice round number.
Long Beach goes 24-0: 47% chance
This would mean that Long Beach is undefeated when they arrive in Hawaii for a giant Big West showdown.
Long Beach goes 28-0: 14% chance
Undefeated regular season. Enough said.
But can it be done?
I mean, yes. It can be done. A 14% chance of going undefeated the rest of the year feels like a conservative estimate at this point. Put another way, that is slightly better than 1 in 8 odds of finishing the regular season undefeated.
A lot of things have to go right, but this is a team with enough skill and experience to pull it off. They just handled the #7 team in the country in straight sets. The more time they have together as a team, the scarier they will be for their opponents.
So what do you think? How do these odds seem to you? What would you put the chances at? When do you think Long Beach will be handed their first loss, if at all? Let me know down in the comments.
Meet the LeMoyne-Owen Magicians
Since the daily email where this went out was significantly delayed, I wanted to make sure and highlight it again here. It is a longer video, but it is worth your time.
I had the privilege of talking with one of the newest programs in NCAA Men’s Volleyball: LeMoyne-Owen. Head Coach Tyrell Jamison, along with three players (Daryl McClain, Alendy Sincoul, and Jacqson Lesure) spoke of the culture of this new program, the challenges they have faced, and their hopes for winning the SIAC. And yes, Memphis BBQ came up.
One of the best ways of growing the game of men’s volleyball is supporting new teams. If you want to learn more about LeMoyne-Owen, this is a great look into a brand new program. Ooh yeah, they are also 2-0 to start conference play in the SIAC. They may be new, but they will put up a fight every single match.
Rankings Update
VBelo Rankings
The fact that Lincoln Memorial has risen to #5 is surprising, even to me. I am all about making sure the IVA gets some love, but five seems like a stretch. That being said, they are also 1 of only two teams with just a single loss (the other being #3 Hawai’i).
I have said it before, but VBelo rewards winning, and LMU is winning. What really makes me upset is that we won’t get to see them in the national tournament. I want to see LMU take on UCLA in Ohio. That sounds like a dream come true, if you ask me. Maybe one day.
Coaches’ Poll
With their two sweeps of Irvine, Hawaii returns to the #3 spot in the coaches poll. But the actual big mover in the Big West is CSUN, now up to #7. That means 4 of the top 7 are in the Big West.
McKendree continues their climb to #11. I still think this is a top 10 team, so I can’t wait for the poll to catch up to that. I also want to give a big shout out to Lincoln Memorial. They are 13-1 and are much better than the #18 rank their received.
Media Poll
Loyola at 7 seems like a bit of a surprise. I know the MIVA is incredible, but right now the best team in the MIVA is McKendree. I know I sound like a broken record, but we need a media poll beyond the top 10.
Still Way-Too-Early RPI
I still think it is too early for this to be overly meaningful, but hey, I like putting data out there. So here is the latest RPI calculations for matches through 3/5/2025. McKendree sure is making it hard to ignore them, right there in fifth place currently.
In’s & Out’s
A section for all of the random things that don’t fit anywhere but belong somewhere.
AVCA Player of the Week: Kristian Titriyski (Opposite, Hawai’i)
Triple-Double Watch 2025: sitting, waiting, wishing
These numbers are as of 3/4/2025.