George Mason Stuns Anteaters in Irvine
The Patriots earned a hard-fought victory over #3 ranked UC Irvine in a dramatic 5-set match.
Let's get straight to the point today. George Mason made a statement yesterday. This was UC Irvine's first match of the season, so there were some question marks on what this team would look like. Coaches thought highly of the Anteaters, however. On Monday, the latest AVCA Coaches Poll had UC Irvine in 3rd, behind only UCLA and Long Beach. This poll meant nothing to George Mason as they looked for a major win early in the schedule.
The word upset gets thrown around a lot, but this looks like an upset to VBelo. In terms of percentages, this is the second-biggest upset of the early season. George Mason had a 20% chance (1 in 5) of winning the match, but that was all they needed. The largest upset this season was Loyola Chicago defeating Hawaii with only a 7% chance, according to VBelo.
The question becomes, how do we interpret this match? For starters, we should acknowledge that this is only one match. Seasons are not defined by one match. That is part of the usefulness of a probabilistic model, like VBelo.1 Teams have an overall rating that moves up and down. It is not as simple as saying, "Team X beat Team Y, therefore, Team X is the better team." We do know that the team that won was the better team that day, in that match.
So, how do we interpret this match? It was a great performance by George Mason who got the points they needed when they needed them. Even though GMU was the better team in yesterday’s match, we need more data to say who is the better team throughout the season. So here are my two, not very sexy, takeaways:
UC Irvine is beatable - regardless of rankings or their star player having a double-double (Hilir Henno: 17 kills & 11 digs).
George Mason can beat top teams - regardless of rankings or if they are out-hit and out-blocked.
What are your takeaways from this match? Or from upsets in general?
Match Recaps
IVA
Lincoln Memorial (96%) def. Thomas More (4%)
3-0 (25-12, 25-18, 25-23)
Non-conference
George Mason (20%) def. UC Irvine (80%)
3-2 (21-25, 25-22, 21-25, 25-23, 15-12)
Princeton (67%) def. Queens (33%)
3-1 (20-25, 25-19, 25-17, 25-12)
Match Projections
Non-conference
Emmanuel (1%) vs Hawai'i (99%)
Saint Francis (28%) vs UC Irvine (72%)
Erskine (66%) vs Tusculum (34%)
Long Island (68%) vs Concordia (32%)
Stevens Institute of Technology (9%) vs Sacred Heart (91%)
This is part of the reason I have not released any VBelo ratings or rankings. The season is still too young for those numbers to have significant meaning for how this season will end. Give it some time and more matches. They will come.
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