Early Season Performances
Early Season Performances
Let's look at who is running up the set scores and how teams are doing against their VBelo Strength of Schedule. That means graphs!
We had great matches yesterday all across the country. Ohio State is doing its best to make the lives of poll voters difficult. The Buckeyes defeated #13 USC in another dramatic 5-set finish. Despite these big victories, Stanford comes away from Texas with the best finish, in terms of set differential. (More on set differential below.) Thank you, First Point, for a great tournament. And thank you to all of the teams that gave us fans great volleyball to watch.
Since we don't have any matches today, I wanted to look at a specific stat: Point Differential per Set. This is the average margin of victory (positive number) or defeat (negative number) for each set a team has played. This is just one way to measure the performance of a team.
These charts look best on a computer instead of mobile. If you view them on Substack, you can mouse over the points to find specific teams.
Right now, Charleston is leading the way. They have won each set by an average of 9 points! They are firing on all cylinders early on. Down at the bottom of the chart, Sacred Heart appears to be the most unlucky. Despite being winless, they are only being outscored by less than 3 points per set.
Right in the middle, there are three teams: George Mason, Lincoln Memorial, & Dominican. They have a .500 win percentage and their point differentials are practically zero. These teams are just small changes away from moving up this chart. Unsurprisingly, there is a fairly clear connection between point differential and winning. It turns out, having more points typically leads to winning matches.
What about schedule differences?
There is another factor we can add to the mix: Strength of Schedule (SoS). For this, I used the average opponent VBelo rating of each team. This functions as an easy way to see how difficult a team's matches have been. When comparing point differential per set and SoS, the goal is to be in the upper right quadrant.
This is the area where opponents have been above average and the point differential is positive. Not only have the matches been tough, but those teams have performed well under the pressure.
Stanford stands out as having an incredibly tough schedule and still averaging 3 more points per set than opponents. Going undefeated in Austin (and overall) sure helps! Currently, Emmanuel has played the toughest schedule, with two of their three matches being played against Hawaii.
Again, LMU finds itself right in the middle. The IVA powerhouse will likely move to the right, but their schedule will dictate if they can get to the top right quadrant. This should be a fun team to watch this year so see where they end up.
What stands out to you from these charts? Anything surprising?
Match Recaps
First Point Collegiate Challenge
Ohio State (82%) def. Southern California (18%)
3-2 (25-20, 25-21, 20-25, 18-25, 15-12)
Stanford (61%) def. Ball State (39%)
3-1 (25-9, 21-25, 30-28, 25-18)
UCLA (69%) def. Penn State (31%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-19, 25-15)
Saint Francis Tri-Match
Saint Francis (96%) def. Dominican (4%)
3-0 (25-13, 25-16, 25-21)
Dominican (23%) def. Central State (77%)
3-1 (25-15, 23-25, 25-14, 25-20)
Saint Francis (89%) def. Central State (11%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-10, 25-17)
Non-conference
Long Beach (87%) def. NJIT (13%)
3-1 (31-29, 23-25, 25-16, 25-22)
BYU (77%) def. UC Santa Barbara (23%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-20, 27-25)
Queens (74%) def. Erskine (26%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-14, 25-16)
Lincoln Memorial (76%) def. North Greenville (24%)
3-2 (21-25, 25-19, 25-14, 20-25, 15-11)
Daemen (97%) def. American International (3%)
3-0 (25-9, 25-19, 25-18)
Charleston (74%) def. Edward Waters (26%)
3-0 (25-10, 25-14, 25-13)
George Mason (78%) def. Sacred Heart (22%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-21, 26-24)
Lewis (99%) def. Kentucky State (1%)
3-0 (25-13, 25-9, 25-14)
Lindenwood (30%) def. Long Island (70%)
3-0 (25-23, 33-31, 25-23)
Loyola Chicago (92%) def. Merrimack (8%)
3-0 (25-17, 25-19, 25-16)
Pepperdine (86%) def. McKendree (14%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-23, 25-23)
Fort Valley State (70%) def. Truett-McConnell (30%)
3-1 (25-14, 25-12, 26-28, 25-13)
Truett-McConnell (76%) def. Morehouse (24%)
3-0 (25-10, 25-19, 25-14)
Lees-McRae (71%) def. Wittenberg (29%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-23, 28-26)
Southern Virginia (27%) def. Lees-McRae (73%)
3-0 (25-14, 25-19, 25-15)
Match Projections
No matches tomorrow. It happens sometimes.