And The Strongest Conference Is...
And The Strongest Conference Is...
It's time for a nerdy look at all of the conferences, in terms of VBelo.
Now that the VBelo ratings are out in the wild, a whole new world of information is at our disposal. Today, I wanted to take a look at conference strength. Let’s start with the least interesting way to look at the conferences: average.
The top two conferences are not a huge surprise. The MPSF and the Big West are neck and neck. Not only are these teams well-represented at the top of the polls, but they are well represented in the VBelo rankings.
The next tier of conferences is also tightly grouped. The MIVA and EIVA have some top teams but also have more teams outside of the rankings. This got me interested in how we can look at the differences between these conferences that have close average VBelo ratings. So I turned to the often-forgotten but much beloved (at least by me) Box-and-Whisker plot.1
This might be the first box-and-whisper plot you have seen in a while. So here is a very quick way to read this chart. The box represents the middle 50% of the data. The line in the middle of the box is the median. The bars (whiskers) at the top and bottom are the high and low. Anything outside of the whiskers are outliers.
The MPSF is interesting because they are one of the tightest-grouped conferences in the country. Because of this tight grouping, they are the only conference with outliers on the top and bottom. What does this mean? It means exactly what we have seen. The MPSF is incredibly competitive and anyone can win on any given day.
In direct contrast to the MPSF, the Big West has a big box. The strength of these teams is much more spread out. Looking at the Big West, there is a top 3 and a bottom 3 and nothing in between. This is less obvious, but still present, when you look at the polls.
I am also interested in the EIVA and the Conference Carolinas. Both of these conferences have a lot of programs grouped together. This is going to lead to upsets and surprises and maybe even some drama in conference tournaments. I am going to be keeping an eye on these conferences.
Enough of my rambling. What do you make of these charts?
Match Recaps
Big West
UC Irvine (88%) def. UC Santa Barbara (12%)
3-0 (25-14, 25-22, 25-20)
Non-conference
Queens (73%) def. Barton (27%)
3-2 (25-21, 21-25, 25-20, 22-25, 15-6)
Harvard (70%) def. Concordia (30%)
3-2 (18-25, 25-23, 18-25, 25-19, 15-9)
Thomas More (67%) def. Central State (33%)
3-1 (25-17, 25-18, 21-25, 25-20)
Match Projections
Big West
CSU Northridge (31%) vs UC San Diego (69%)
MIVA
Ball State (26%) vs Ohio State (74%)
McKendree (32%) vs Lewis (68%)
Quincy (4%) vs Loyola Chicago (96%)
MPSF
Southern California (29%) vs Pepperdine (71%)
Non-conference
Kentucky State (34%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (66%)
I’m hopeful that the next version of this graphic will include school logos.