VBelo Scouting Report: May 7, 2022
Match #779 - For all the marbles
Today the 779th match of the 2022 season will be played and it will be for a national championship. In the hundreds of matches that have been played this year, we have seen some truly incredible volleyball played all over the United States. There will be time for more season reflections later, but today is all about the rematch: Hawai’i vs. Long Beach - Part 4.
While there has been some coaching news recently, the biggest rumblings in the men’s volleyball world yesterday came in response to the NCAA’s continued silence. Fans have long criticized the governing body of not doing enough to promote the sport of men’s volleyball. After the official NCAA Men’s Volleyball twitter account removed its bio and picture earlier this year, it was clear they had no intention of talking about the sport. Thanks to a great interview by Long Beach coach Alan Knipe and the social media efforts of Off the Block and fans like you, the NCAA’s official account did finally tweet about a sport they apparently forgot they sponsor. It is better than nothing, but there is still a long way to go.
But enough about the politics of it all, let’s talk about the match today!
Match Projection
(1) Long Beach (38%) vs. (3) Hawai’i (62%)
This match will be broadcast on ESPN 2. Tell your friends to turn it on!
It all comes down to Long Beach and Hawai’i, again. These teams last played each other 14 days ago in Hawai’i for the Big West championship. Their rivalry is well established and one of the strongest in the men’s volleyball world. For most of the season, Long Beach and Hawai’i were in the top 4 for the coaches and media polls. On paper, there is a lot of good reasons to think either team could win this.
VBelo has Hawai’i as the favorite. They have been one of the strongest teams all season and their 26-5 record definitely reflects that. They come into this match 1st in the nation in blocks/set, 2nd in aces per set, and 6th in hitting percentage. Their loses this year came at Ball State (x2 and infamously shorthanded), at UCSD, and at Long Beach (x2). They are 5-0 this season on neutral courts and are currently on an 8 match win-streak.
Long Beach comes into the match 21-5, having played a shorter schedule than most teams in the country. Nationally they are 2nd in hitting percentage and 3rd in blocks/set. They also have the reigning National Player of the Year in Alex Nikolov. Their loses this year came against Penn State (at home), at UCLA, at UC Irvine, at UCSD, and at Hawai’i (in the Big West championship.) Long Beach 2-1 on neutral courts this year with all of those matches coming in the postseason.
VBelo points to Hawai’i having the edge because of their continued performance this season. That being said, both teams have shown that when they are on their game, they can easily defeat the other. The true question is who will perform at their highest potential later today.
Tournament Projection
Here is a gif of the round-by-round projections as they were updated.
At the beginning of the tournament, both Hawai’i and Long were within 1% of each other in terms of their chances to win the championship. As we reach the final match, both squads still have a strong chance of winning. While VBelo gives the advantage to Hawai’i, the odds definitely feel closer than 62/38.
It is moments like this that a model is really helpful. It can be easy to be sucked in by recency bias. Hawai’i looked dominant when these teams last played. But that can be easily accounted for because home court advantage is so strong in Hawai’i and this year it has been incredibly strong across the country (63%). But you could also point to the fact that Long Beach already beat them twice and the match will be much closer to their fan base (a 33 minutes drive without traffic.) Both teams have a slew of All-Americans and future professional players. How is someone supposed to figure out who is likely to win? That is were VBelo comes in to help navigate all of this and let us know how likely a team is to win. Just because a team is more likely to win doesn’t mean their fate is sealed, however. The great thing about volleyball is that it’s not over until that last point is scored.
(As a little experiment, I ran the numbers to see what it would look like if this match was played at Long Beach. VBelo say it would be closer, but Hawai’i would still have the sight edge 55% to 45%.)
Tweet of the Day
The tweet heard ‘round the volleyball world.
