VBelo Scouting Report: May 6, 2022
VBelo Scouting Report: May 6, 2022
And then there were two
There was a lot of hype heading into yesterday’s semifinal matchups, and they did not disappoint. Two #cincosets on Cinco de Mayo! You can’t make this stuff up! For UCLA and Ball State, their championship dreams ended, but what a year both of these teams had.
We now will have the 4th matchup between Big West rivals, 1 seed Long Beach and 3 seed Hawai’i. Long Beach leads the series this year 2-1 with both teams winning at home. It will be interesting to see how playing on a neutral court pans out. Long Beach is significantly closer to Los Angeles than Hawai’i, but the Rainbow Warrior faithful are known to travel strong. It should be a loud and exciting matchup.
With just one match left in the season, it seems incredibly safe to say it has been a good year for men’s volleyball. Last night was just another example of the high level of play this sport is producing.
Match Recap
(1) Long Beach (38%) def. (4) UCLA (62%)
(18-25, 18-25, 25-15, 25-10, 16-14)
If you only watched the first two sets, you might be very confused on Long Beach winning this match. UCLA looked unstoppable. They controlled the tempo, were hitting lights out, and were able to keep Nikolov, recently named Player of the Year, in check. But winning a third set was not in the cards for UCLA.
Long Beach brushed off their sluggish start and went into overdrive. In sets three and four, they hit .591 and .647! They even kept UCLA to -.188 hitting in the fourth set. Everything was working for them and UCLA had no answers. Nikolov could not be held down the entire night and finished with a match high 20 kills. This is the type of team that wants to win a national championship.
(3) Hawai’i (55%) def. (2) Ball State (45%)
(28-26, 19-25, 20-25, 25-20, 15-11)
Hawai’i looked unstoppable at times (but they also looked very stoppable at other times.) Ball State, on the other hand, looked very good the entire night. Numerous seniors ended their career last night for the Cardinals, but they should be proud of this season. In addition to having the best record in the regular season, winning their conference regular season title, and winning their conference tournament, this team proved that Ball State is a contender, not just in the MIVA, but nationally. Ball State looked like the better team for most of last night, but in the end, they came up just short.
Hawai’i had a very hot start and finish to the match. The in-between sets were pretty shaky. They will need to clean that up if they want to win against a tough Long Beach squad tomorrow.
Hawai’i will look to defend their national championship on Saturday against rival Long Beach. You can watch the broadcast on ESPN 2! (National TV coverage!)
Updated Tournament Projections
The finals are set and Hawai’i is the 62% favorite over Long Beach. Interestingly, this is the same percentage that Long Beach had to beat UCLA and we saw how that turned out.
VBelo thinks that Hawai’i is the stronger team, even with having to travel across the ocean (which does affect match probabilities in VBelo.) Part of this is due to Long Beach’s shorter schedule (that I mentioned yesterday). The other factor is that Hawai’i started off the season with a higher VBelo than Long Beach so the Beach had more distance to make up in less matches.
Hawai’i comes into the finals with a VBelo of 1909, the first and only team to reach the 1900 mark in the past 3 seasons. Even though Long Beach’s VBelo looks so much lower than Hawai’i, it is clear from watching them play that you can expect a competitive finals.
Tweet of the Day
The call that ended the semifinals.
