VBelo Scouting Report: May 5, 2022
VBelo Scouting Report: May 5, 2022
Rematches in the semifinals
It is time for the semifinals! By the end of today, we will know who will be vying for the top prize in men’s college volleyball on Saturday. These four teams could all win, which makes this tournament all the more exciting. A lot has been written about both of today’s matchups, so I will stick to what I know best, VBelo.
But first, AVCA awarded the Player of the Year to Alex Nikolov (OH, Long Beach) yesterday. He is the first freshman to win this award and let’s just say his season was impressive. Not “impressive for a freshman.” Just straight up impressive. He is first nationally in aces/set and third in kills/set. The fact that Long Beach will have him for several years means that the rest of the Big West (and country) will have to figure out what his weaknesses are and attempt, as best they can, to keep him at bay. Congrats, Alex!
So, let’s get to some match projections!
Match Projections
(1) Long Beach (38%) at (4) UCLA (62%)
This is one of those moments where VBelo probably doesn’t align with a lot of people. Sure, UCLA beat Long Beach at home, but Long Beach looks really good. Not to mention they have the newly crowned Player of the Year. But UCLA has such a deep roster this year and have been ranked #1 (in the coaches poll) for a good portion of the year.
This is probably a good time to mention the home court win percentage this season: 63.5%
(2) Ball State (45%) vs (3) Hawai’i (55%)
This is the rematch Hawai’i has wanted for months. The constant narrative is that Hawai’i is a much different (and better) team than they were in January. Here is the thing, though, Ball State is also a much better team than they were in January. This match will feature 8 All-Americans. Expect some very fast offenses and some of the best volleyball this season has to offer.
The Path to the Final Four
The top four seeds of the NCAA tournament all made it to the final four. This is not that surprising, but let’s look what each of their seasons have looked like.
There is a lot going on here, so let’s break it down. First off, Hawai’i came into the season well above these other teams. They were in first place (in terms of VBelo) for most of the season, but their overall gains are fairly limited. The paths of Ball State, Long Beach, and UCLA all follow a similar trajectory. The biggest difference being Long Beach between late February and late March. This is largely due to scheduling, as Long Beach has played only 25 matches this year (tied for 33rd most among all D-I/II schools.)
At the end of the season, there is a pretty nice grouping for these three programs. Hawai’i still sits atop, followed by Ball State, UCLA, and Long Beach. For the sake of the tournament, the odds basically follow this same ranking except the home court advantage lifts UCLA into the lead.
The national VBelo average is added to help give some context. These teams are very good. (Currently, the most “average” team, the one closest to the national average, is Saint Francis University.) You might notice that the average goes up slightly over the course of the season. Because of the calculations involved with VBelo, it is not a true closed system and ratings trend up every season. (Don’t worry, this inflation is mitigated in off-season calculations.)
Depending on how these next three matches in the tournament go, we could see an even greater convergence of VBelo ratings!
Tournament Projections
Nothing has changed since yesterday. Just a reminder of what the projections look like for the rest of the tournament.
Here is another way to look at the chances of winning the tournament.
What a time to be alive. So much parity at such a high level is a great sight to see. And I hope it only gets better!
