VBelo Scouting Report: May 2, 2022
History is made & an interview with Kaleb Jenness
What a way to open the tournament. Volleyball fans don’t have a lot to complain about with that opening match between North Greenville and Princeton. The Crusaders made history by earning the Conference Carolinas its first NCAA tournament win. There is more to talk about for this match, but this moment is huge for men’s volleyball.
Since getting an automatic bid to the national tournament, ConfCarolinas was 0-6 and only picked up 1 set victory in those losses. North Greenville smashed all of that with its sweep of EIVA champions Princeton. Not to mention, North Greenville’s first and only coach, Fred Battenfield, announced earlier this year that he would be retiring after this season. Regardless of what happens next, Coach Battenfield, North Greenville, and the Conference Carolinas have put their stamp on the men’s volleyball world. (Has anyone optioned this story to Hallmark yet?)
We are now down to 6 teams, but before we get to the updated tournament projections, let’s talk about yesterday’s match.
Match Recap
North Greenville (60%) def. Princeton (40%): 3-0
(25-21, 25-18, 40-38)
I kept seeing the word “upset” about this match, but I think that is too simple and it sells North Greenville short. It was an emotional/metaphorical upset because it was the Conference Carolinas’ first victory in the tournament. The ConfCarolinas has been viewed as weaker than other, older conferences, so for many this match felt like David beating Goliath.
But there is more to this match than conference history. According to VBelo, NGU was the favorite for this match and the 8th strongest team in the country. When you look at the match that way, it isn’t surprising that they swept Princeton (even with that exciting third set.) In fact, North Greenville has had a higher VBelo rating than Princeton this entire season.
So the word upset can be used to describe how this match felt, but make no mistake, North Greenville was the stronger team coming into the match and the results reflect that.1
In a bigger sense, this match is a perfect example of why VBelo exists. It is difficult to compare teams from different conferences that have incredibly limited overlap in schedules. VBelo uses match performance to create ratings relative to every other team. So VBelo doesn’t care that these two teams didn’t play each other this season or what opponents they shared. It sees all of the match inputs as creating a strength for each team. When they play each other, all those inputs come together to project how likely teams are to win.
Is VBelo perfect? No. Does it help us get a sense of how strong a team really is? I think so. It understands that upsets happen and it doesn’t care about a team’s “legacy” or what conference it comes from. It tries to create a better idea of how good a team is without saying “they looked good out there.” The best part is, the more games and data the system has, the better it is. Hooray data!
Kaleb Jenness Interview
Outside hitter for Ball State and finalist for the 2022 Karch Kiraly Award sat down to talk with me (T.J.). We talked about the success of Ball State this year, his own incredible season, working with a new coach, and the possibility of playing Hawai'i again in the NCAA semifinals. Kaleb is a great player and a great person so I hope you enjoy our chat.
Updated Tournament Projection
As mentioned last week, yesterday’s match didn’t have huge implications for projections later in the tournament. That being said, North Greenville’s odds jumped significantly as was expected.
There were some small movements that caused a few teams to switch spots. Ball State still leads all teams with 28% to win it all. UCLA, with its home court advantage, holds onto the second spot with 22%. Long Beach jumped Hawai’i to take over third spot but both teams are very close in the odds. North Greenville actually jumped Pepperdine to become the fifth most likely to win the tournament, which has to feel good for the Conference Carolinas.
Tomorrow, we will look at all of the fun scenarios of what the projections could look like depending on who wins.
Tweet of the Day
Even if North Greenville lost, they would still be the stronger team. Sometimes the underdogs win. That doesn’t make them instantly better than the team they beat. VBelo tries to reflect that.