VBelo Scouting Report: April 28, 2023
NCAA National Tournament Projections
We are just 2 days away from the first match in the 2023 NCAA Men’s Volleyball National Championship Tournament!!! Yes, I am excited, thanks for asking.
Today I’m going to release the tournament projections and a look at what a 12 team tournament could look like (in my dreams). Tomorrow I plan on taking a closer look at the first matchup (Ohio State and King). Let’s not waste time with long prologues though…
NCAA Tournament Projections
If you have been following Men’s Volleyball this season, then you know that there have been 3 teams atop the rankings. Not only do we get to see them all in the tournament, they are the three most likely teams to take home the trophy on May 6th.
At this point, UCLA has the slight edge over Hawaiʻi to win it all. This is largely due to the fact that they won’t have to play Penn State in order to get to the finals. Yes, the Bruins will have to face a strong team in either Long Beach or Grand Canyon. But, VBelo has Penn State as a tougher opponent and thus they are more likely to cause problems for Hawaiʻi.
UCLA and Hawaiʻi combine for a 70% to win the tournament, which is significant. Last year, we had 4 teams with at least a 19% chance of winning. We have some true powerhouses in the tournament this year.
Penn State and Long Beach have the statistical disadvantage of having to play 1 more match than UCLA and Hawaiʻi. This gives them more opportunities to get knocked out of the tournament and thus their projections are lower. This is true even though they are both significant favorites to advance to the semifinals.
For the 1st opening round match, Ohio State looks to have a strong advantage over Conference Carolinas champion King University. Both of these teams are peaking late in the season but VBelo has Ohio State as the stronger team. The bottom 3 seeds will have to do something truly incredible to win the championship, but there is always a chance.
12 Team (Dream) Tournament
As reported last year, the NCAA is considering the request to expand the Men’s Volleyball tournament to 12 teams as early as the 2024 season. This is not finalized yet and the NCAA Competition Oversight Committee doesn’t meet again until May 10th. While we wait to see if we will finally get a respectable tournament size (with an EVEN number of teams), I decided to put together a dream bracket for this year.
For starters, the 7 teams that made the “real” tournament made it in. It didn’t feel fair to kick any of them out. That left 5 spots to fill.
Long time readers will not be shocked at all that the first teams I added were the conferences that don’t get automatic qualifiers currently: SIAC and NEC. I know the IVA isn’t technically a conference, but this is my dream tournament which means the IVA winner makes it in as well. This means Edward Waters, Long Island, and Lincoln Memorial made the cut.
Now we are left with just 2 additional at-large spots. Looking at the selection criteria, it seems fairly clear that the next team to make it would have been BYU, so the Cougars are in now.
The final spot was a tough one. Looking at the remaining teams, it came down to two: Ball State and UC Irvine. Both teams lost in their conference tournament finals. Both teams have strong wins this season. Truly, you could make an argument for both of these teams. For the tie-breaker I went to VBelo. Ball State had the advantage there so the Cardinals are moving on.
Seeding was fairly straight forward. Feel free to critique where I put teams, but I think overall, it is about right. If anything, seeds 6-8 seem fairly interchangeable. But also, in my bracket, I make the rules.
Looking at this bracket, it gives me warm, fuzzy feelings. I would LOVE to see this in real life. The easiest way that we get closer to this dream is by being vocal in our support of Men’s Volleyball. If you can afford it, go to the national championship. Ticket sales matter for the NCAA. Post on social media, #NCAAMVB. Write a letter to your representative Competition Oversight Committee member.
Your dream bracket is nice. But it will be very regional. So only one team would have to leave their region. Should be fun in 2024.