VBelo Scouting Report: April 28, 2022
VBelo Scouting Report: April 28, 2022
Play-in Match Preview
We are just 3 days away from the first match of the NCAA Men’s Volleyball national tournament. The dust has settled from championship weekend and there is a quiet lull in the volleyball world. Which means it is the perfect time to start talking about these matches and what could happen.
Round-by-Round Projections
Nothing has changed since the numbers were first run, but here is what the projections look like right now. Ball State has the slight edge in overall probability of winning it all. The two most likely teams to make the finals are (unsurprisingly) the 1 seed (Long Beach) and the 2 seed (Ball State). The top four teams have a fairly tight grouping so there is no overwhelming favorite for this tournament.
Today we are going to look at the play-in match1.
Play-In Match
In what might be a surprise to many, VBelo gives North Greenville the slight edge in this match. If they were to win, it would be the Conference Carolinas first win in the NCAA Tournament since they received an automatic qualification in 2015. Emotionally it would probably feel like an upset, but numerically, they are the favorite.
North Greenville
The Crusaders are currently on a 7 match winning streak and finished conference play with a strong 12-2 record. Overall they are 20-5 on the year. Of their 5 losses, 4 of them came on the road. Their only neutral court match was the semifinals of the Conference Carolinas tournament against Emmanuel (at Mount Olive.) They faced 1 EIVA opponent this year, George Mason, and lost to them 3-1 at George Mason back in late January. North Greenville is ranked #8 in VBelo.
Princeton
After shocking the volleyball world by beating Penn State, the Tigers earned a trip to California by winning the EIVA tournament. Princeton comes into the national tournament on a 10 match win streak (tied for the longest in the nation.) In conference play they were 10-6 with a 15-12 overall record. Their only neutral court matches were part of the EIVA tournament (2-0). Against George Mason, the only opponent North Greenville and Princeton share this year, the Tigers were 2-0, winning 3-0 and 3-2. Princeton is ranked #14 in VBelo.
If North Greenville Wins…
Let’s take a look at the projections if North Greenville wins.2 Any number with a red background is a decrease by more than 1% and any one with a dark green background is an increase by more than 1%.
The only team that is really affected by North Greenville winning is Hawai’i. This makes sense because they are the team that immediately faces the winner of the play-in match. Hawai’i has their odds to make the semifinals drop from 68% to 62%. We also see a similar drop in the chance to make the finals (36% to 33%). Interestingly, their overall odds of defending their national championship remain basically unchanged but Long Beach’s odds raise ever so slightly so they swap places in the win column.
On the North Greenville side, their odds to make all rounds increase. Their chances of making the finals and winning almost double. In fact, their chances move them ahead of Pepperdine for the 5th most likely to win the tournament. No other team is significantly impacted by this particular outcome.
If Princeton Wins…
Now let’s take a look at the projections if Princeton wins.3 Again, any number with a red background is a decrease by more than 1% and any one with a dark green background is an increase by more than 1%.
Princeton winning affects the overall projections even less than North Greenville winning (because VBelo thinks Princeton is the weaker team.) Hawai’i sees a slight increase (68% to 71%) in their chances to make the semifinals. Everything else basically stays the same for the top 5 seeds.
For Princeton, their odds increase across the board pretty substantially. As the team with the lowest VBelo in the tournament, any increase in their chances will be significant, but overall their odds are still very low.
Who Should I Root For?
If you are looking to cheer strategically, here is your quick guide.
North Greenville/Princeton Fans
This seems pretty simple…cheer for your team.
Hawai’i Fans
You probably want Princeton to win. I know that Conference Carolinas has a history of not winning at the NCAA tournament, but North Greenville would appear to be stronger.
Everyone Else
It is hard to go wrong here. This match has little impact on anyone besides the Rainbow Warriors. If you want to cheer for the conference underdog, then support the North Greenville Crusaders. If you want to get behind the story of a team missing an entire season and making one of the biggest upsets of the year, then root for the Princeton Tigers. Either way, your team is pretty unlikely to face them.
Tweet of the Day
The NCAA has made it clear that this is a play-in match, but really it seems like it should just be called the first round. It feels demeaning to the teams to make it seem like they have to double earn their way to the tournament. Also, this match should be covered just like any other tournament match. The small consolation is that because of Covid-19, this play-in match takes place at the site of the rest of the tournament. Baby steps. Okay, rant over.
For VBelo, I assumed that North Greenville won 3-1.
For VBelo, I assumed that Princeton won 3-1.