VBelo Scouting Report: April 18, 2023
It's that time of year: win or go home
Welcome to 5 straight days of postseason volleyball. Today we will ease back into postseason play with 2 Conference Carolinas matches. I put out projections for them yesterday and this conference has the potential for a lot of upsets. This will also be an interesting view into home court advantage, as all of the matches are played at the #3 seed, King University.
In a not-that-surprising turn of events, the NCAA did not release updated RPI ranking on Monday, as they normally do. Good thing we don’t have to rely on them to do this calculation. Side note: calculating RPI takes me about 2 seconds, so I’m not sure why it takes the NCAA 7+ days.
I also want to address the extremely disappointing news out of the IVA yesterday. Limestone was informed that their men’s volleyball program would be discontinued effective immediately. So much effort is being done to grow this sport, so news like this really hurts. To all of the Limestone players, coaches, and staff: Thank you! It was never supposed to be like this and this is not a reflection on you.
Conference Tournament Simulation Methodology
For each tournament, I run a simulated version of the matches through VBelo. In total, I run 50,000 simulations to capture a complete picture of the likely outcomes. The code counts each time a team advances to the next round and if they eventually win the tournament. After counting all of the outcomes, we are able to see how likely each tournament outcome is (in a percentage).
Big West Tournament Projections
Tournament Format
All six teams make the postseason. The top 2 seeds receive a bye to the semifinals. All matches are played at a rotating site. This year the tournament will be held at UC Irvine.
Projections
Hawaiʻi and Long Beach are favorites to reach the finals and are both likely to reach the national tournament (i.e. the loser in the conference final is likely to receive one of two at-large bids). Outside of those two powerhouses, UC Irvine has the pieces (and the home court) to potentially play spoiler. Of all tournaments, this one could create the most chaos if a major upset happens.
NEC Tournament Projections
Tournament Format
Shoutout to whoever creates the NEC graphics! Keep up the great work!
All six teams make the postseason. The top 2 seeds receive a bye to the semifinals. After the first round, remaining teams are reseeded before the semifinals. All matches are played at the #1 seed which is Saint Francis. This is the inaugural NEC tournament.
Projections
The regular season ended with Saint Francis and Daemen. Unsurprisingly, those two teams will be trying to meet again in the tournament finals. Long Island is also worth watching as they could work their way into the mix. It is great to have a new conference this year and I am thrilled to see who will win the first (of many) championships for the NEC.
SIAC Tournament Projections
Tournament Format
All six teams make the postseason. The top 2 seeds receive a bye to the semifinals. All matches are played at a rotating site. This year the tournament will be held at Fort Valley State.
Projections
Last season, Central State defeated Edward Waters to claim the inaugural SIAC championship. This season, EWU wants to flip the script and get their first trophy. They are in a strong position to do so and Central State is likely the only team that could stop them.
Match Recaps
No matches yesterday.
Match Projections
ConfCarolinas
Mount Olive (40%) vs King (60%)
Lees-McRae (32%) vs Belmont Abbey (68%)
NEC had 6 of 8 make playoffs. Sadly on a tiebreaker FDU is out. D'Youville finished 8th