VBelo Scouting Report: April 16, 2022
VBelo Scouting Report: April 16, 2022
Welcome to MIVA Madness
This has been a fun season, but let’s be real for a second. The talk of 2022 has been the MIVA and the resurgence of Ball State. The MIVA has easily been the most interesting conference this season and this tournament has been long awaited.
We will get to the MIVA Tournament below so let’s check in on the EIVA that we talked about yesterday. NJIT, Princeton, and Harvard all won…which means we are headed towards chaos! Or rather, anyone could still get the 2 seed. It all comes down to the last day of the season…today!
Yesterday ended with quite the match between CSUN and Long Beach. CSUN was this close to pulling off a huge upset. (It would have been the biggest upset in terms of VBelo this season.) But Long Beach found a way to win. This season is ending with as much drama and intrigue as anyone could hope.
On this last day of the season, 14 of the 15 ranked teams will be playing (Penn State finished their season yesterday.) So let’s get to all of the action!
MIVA Tournament
Format
All 8 teams in the MIVA make their conference tournament. It is a traditional bracket with no byes. The matches are played at the higher seed throughout the tournament. Compared to the other conferences, it is a very simple bracket. (Thank you, MIVA.)
VBelo Simulation
The MIVA tournament was run through a VBelo simulation 50,000 times and the results are below. Ball State has almost a 50/50 chance of winning their tournament, which is huge. Their first match is against a Quincy team that is winless on the road this season, so that bodes well for them. The fact that they will always be playing at home gives them a huge boost as they were 11-1 at home this season.
Past the 1 seed, Loyola and Lewis are the only teams with more than a 10% chance of winning the whole thing. As expected, it is a very top heavy bracket.
The MIVA has been full of exciting upsets this season so don’t be too surprised if we see Purdue Fort Wayne or Ohio State make the semifinals.
Match Recaps
Big West
#3/3 Long Beach (88%) def. CSUN (12%):
(25-20, 16-25, 20-25, 25-21, 16-14)
With this win, Long Beach secured first place in the Big West. Congrats!
#4/4 Hawai’i (76%) def. #14 UC Irvine (24%): 3-0
(25-21, 25-18, 25-22)
EIVA
#2/2 Penn State (86%) def. Charleston (14%): 3-1
(25-18, 25-21, 15-25, 25-12)
NJIT (74%) def. St. Francis Brooklyn (26%): 3-1
(25-23, 24-26, 25-18, 25-23)
Princeton (76%) def. Sacred Heart (24%): 3-0
(25-18, 25-14, 25-18)
Harvard (31%) def. George Mason (69%): 3-2
(18-25, 25-21, 25-17, 21-25, 15-11)
MPSF
#1/1 UCLA (67%) def. BYU (33%): 3-1
(20-25, 25-23, 25-16, 25-18)
#5/6 USC (39%) def. #10/9 Grand Canyon (61%): 3-2
(21-25, 15-25, 25-14, 25-23, 15-12)
SIAC
Edward Waters (63%) def. Fort Valley (37%): 3-2
(25-23, 25-21, 26-28, 20-25, 16-14)
Central State (77%) def. Kentucky State (23%): 3-0
(25-14, 25-17, 25-11)
With this win, Central State secured the regular season title in the inaugural season for SIAC men’s volleyball. Congrats Marauders!
Non-conference
#6/7 UCSB (74%) def. Concordia-Irvine (26%): 3-0
(25-23, 25-22, 25-21)
Today in Numbers
Games: 11
Total Points: 1884
Sets/game: 4.0
Average Set Differential: 2.91 points
Home Win Pct: 45.45%
#cincosets: 4
Match Projections
Rankings reflect the current weekly AVCA Coaches Poll and Off the Block Media Poll.
Big West
#3/3 Long Beach (81%) at CSUN (19%)
#4/4 Hawai’i (78%) at #14 UC Irvine (22%)
#6/7 UCSB (55%) at #9/8 UCSD (45%)
EIVA
NJIT (63%) at St. Francis Brooklyn (37%)
Saint Francis (62%) at Charleston (38%)
Sacred Heart (23%) at Princeton (77%)
Harvard (36%) at George Mason (64%)
Independent
Daemen (70%) at D’Youville (30%)
MIVA Tournament
Quincy (6%) at #7/5 Ball State (94%)
Ohio State (33%) at #13 Lewis (67%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (36%) at #15 McKendree (64%)
Lindenwood (19%) at #11 Loyola (81%)
MPSF
#1/1 UCLA (70%) at BYU (30%)
#5/6 USC (44%) at #10/9 GCU (56%)
#12 Stanford (25%) at #8/10 Pepperdine (75%)
SIAC
Morehouse (18%) at Edward Waters (82%)
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