VBelo Scouting Report: April 13, 2022
VBelo Scouting Report: April 13, 2022
Conference Carolinas opening round
The post-season starts today. The first conference to start its tournament is Conference Carolinas. The winner of the tournament will get an automatic qualification for the national tournament so that stakes are pretty high.
The only matches today are part of the Conference Carolinas tournament, so let’s talk about the tournament before we get to the matches.
Conference Carolinas Tournament
All 8 teams in the conference make it to the tournament. The top 2 seeds get byes to the semifinals and seeds 3 & 4 get byes to the quarterfinals. The opening round matches determine who makes it to the quarterfinals.
The first round and the quarterfinals will be played at the higher seed while the semifinals and championship will take place at Mount Olive.
VBelo Tournament Simulation
Now for the fun part. Using VBelo, I ran a simulation of the tournament 50,000 times to see how often teams make it to each round and how often they ultimately win the whole thing. The model uses the same format as the actual tournament (in terms of byes and home courts) and it runs enough times to allow for rare events while still giving a sense of what is most likely.
So without further ado, the Conference Carolinas tournament projections.
As expected, North Greenville is the favorite after their 12-2 record in conference play. Since they are the 1 seed, all of their matches will be played at the final site, Mount Olive. In spite of potentially having to face the home team in the championship, they win the tournament over 1/3 of the time.
Mount Olive comes in with the second highest chances due largely to having the luxury of playing on their home court the entire tournament. They are followed by King at the 2 seed.
The top 3 seeds won the simulated tournaments 89.1% of the time which doesn’t leave much room for the rest of the field. The extra match for the bottom four teams definitely makes it harder for them to win, but the tournament isn’t over until it’s over!
Daily Matchups
ConfCarolinas Tournament:
Barton (25%) at Erskine (75%)
Lees-McRae (27%) at Belmont Abbey (73%)