VBelo Preseason Report: BWC
VBelo Preseason Report: BWC
I like it when you call me Big West-pa
Welcome to the VBelo Preseason Report for the Big West Conference (BWC)! In this 8-part series, we will look at the state of Men’s Volleyball as we begin the 2023 NCAA season. Each conference profile will give a quick overview of how those teams look as they head into their 2023 campaign.
If you want to see the other conference profiles, I will update links as they are released:
Preseason Ranking
Disclaimer
VBelo only knows the information that is fed into it. Since there have been zero matches in 2023 so far, it doesn’t have a complete picture of teams yet. The best it can do is see where a team finished last season and adjust for players lost in the offseason. The model will learn more about these teams the same way we all will: seeing who wins matches. While these preseasons rankings don’t foretell where the teams will end the season (it can’t predict the future), it shows us where VBelo thinks they are starting from relative to the rest of the nation.
So let’s get to it! Here is how the BWC teams stack up to begin the season.
Hawai’i and Long Beach as 1 and 2 in the BWC is basically a given at this point. After that though, it looks like the coaches think differently.
The last four national championship winners have been from the Big West Conference, so it is no surprise that they have 3 of the top 8 VBelo ratings in the country to start the season. Hawai’i is currently in a league of their own, in terms of VBelo. There is so much space between them and the rest of the country, it is hard to think of a match scenario where they would be the VBelo underdog. The fact that they have the lowest roster loss of a Big West team only helps cement the fact that they will likely be very good this year. (This is probably an understatement.)
Long Beach is also a very good team. Even though they lost the Player of the Year, Alex Nikolov, they are returning a ton of talent. If they don’t finish in the top 2 in the Big West, it will be because of UC Irvine or UCSB. VBelo and the coaches have these two teams switched, which is probably due to the incredible arms that Irvine has. Last season their conference record was 3-7, but they could make the jump this year and really challenge the powerhouses above them in the rankings. It also looks like the coaches think UCSD will struggle after graduating so many seniors last year, but VBelo still has them starting the season above CSUN. Interestingly, CSUN is the only team in the Big West to start the season below the average VBelo score. That is just how good this conference is right now.
Roster Retention
To help make sense of the Roster Retention scores above, here is a deep dive into how this metric is calculated.
Let’s just get this out of the way: Alex Nikolov (2022 player of the year) went pro and that is a huge loss for Long Beach. VBelo only knows that The Beach lost a player who played in every set of every match. What it doesn’t know, is that this player was second in the country in aces per set and fourth in kills per set. So yeah, Long Beach is losing a lot of firepower. Even with that loss though, they come in below average in their total roster loss, which is great for them. The only teams with a lower roster loss metric are UC Irvine and Hawai’i.
On the other extreme, there is UCSD. They are the only team to have a retention metric greater than one. This equates to losing 6 players who played every set of every match. You know, basically everyone on the court. They aren’t losing everyone, though, thankfully. Nick Rigo (MB) led the Tritons in hitting percent and Ryan Ka (OH) who was second in kills per set, both return to UCSD.
Watchlist
Here are some interesting story lines and things to watch for this season:
Thrice as Nice - Hawai’i is going for the three-peat this season, a feat not seen since UCLA won 4 in a row from 1981-1984. They will be the favorite to win until we see evidence otherwise.
Long Beach - Even with losing a generational talent, LBSU can’t be counted out. Alan Knipe knows what he is doing, the real question is who is going to step up and fill the gap. Someone will, because it is Long Beach and they have the talent.
Anteater Arms - Sani and Henno were huge for Irvine last season and it appears that they only got better in the offseason. They are both on the BWC Preseason Team and I would except to see them at the BWC All-Conference team at the end of the season too.
UCSD - It is no surprise that this year will be a rebuilding year. The question will be how well does this rebuilding go in the span of a season. The Tritons have a tough schedule which could speed up the rebuilding process.
Conclusion
This conference is jam packed with returning All-Americans. Briggs (LBSU) and Thelle (Hawai’i) for the first team. Chakas (Hawai’i), Godbold (LBSU), and Voss (Hawai’i) for the second team. Henno (UCI), Knipe (LBSU), Mouchlias (Hawai’i), Olivier (LBSU), Sani (UCI), Todorov (UCSB), and Wilcox (UCSB) for honorable mention. It is an embarrassment of riches in the Big West. If a Big West team does not make it to the national championship finals, I would be shocked. With so much talent (that has been scouted heavily), it will be interesting to see who was able to develop new ways to improve their game in the offseason to keep the rest of the conference on their toes in 2023.