Another Monday has passed which means one thing: another AVCA poll. Here is how it panned out this week.
The top 10 only saw two teams flip spots. By now, it seems pretty clear that the coaches have a firm idea of the top teams. I plan to talk more about the VBelo rankings next week, but I will warn you now. VBelo and the AVCA look different. Sure, there are some similarities. Right now, the two lists share 8 of the top 10. For spots 11-20, there are only four teams in common, however.
I mostly like that the AVCA poll has reached an equilibrium. I think that huge changes week-to-week are unrealistic. The problem is that the way the changes work seems uneven. Specifically, "good losses” weigh much more into the AVCA poll than VBelo. For the model, a loss is still a loss. Yes, there are degrees of a loss, but a loss still hurts a team in VBelo.
Then you look at a good team like Stanford that is 8-8, a clear outlier in the top 10. Their losses to strong teams are shown as potential strength. Then you have Maryville, who has had a much easier schedule but much better results. The Saints are currently 15-3, have an 11-match winning streak, and did not receive votes in the latest poll.
It’s hard to rank teams (with opinions or models). The hardest part is making it reflect reality. AVCA and VBelo don’t mirror reality perfectly. But they continue to give us different angles to look at. All of the projections below are based on VBelo. They give us a glimpse into who is likely the stronger team. If the projections seem about right, then the ratings should be about right as well.
But I am getting ahead of myself. Check out the handful of matches we have today and enjoy some good volleyball.
Match Recaps
Non-conference
D'Youville (57%) def. Thomas More (43%)
3-0 (25-16, 27-25, 25-18)
Match Projections
IVA
Maryville (65%) vs Missouri S&T (35%)
MIVA
Quincy (17%) vs Lindenwood (83%)
Non-conference
Penn State (91%) vs CSU Northridge (9%)
Thomas More (9%) vs Daemen (91%)
Edward Waters (14%) vs Saint Francis (86%)
St. Andrews (41%) vs Benedict (59%)