The Cursed Return of RPI
VBelo Rankings, the latest AVCA Coaches Poll, and I guess we have to talk about RPI.
AVCA Coaches Poll
In an unsurprising move, Long Beach topped the latest coaches poll by receiving all 23 first-place votes. I didn’t mention this last week, but the “Nifty Nine” was finally broken. That being said, the top of the charts has seen limited movement this year.
One of the lessons I am taking away from the poll is that conference matters. UCSB is probably a good example here. At 7-14, the Gauchos overall record ranks 44th out of 58 teams. And yet, they are 20th on the poll. Their “good losses” are doing a lot of work and their really impressive win against UCLA has left a lasting impact on the brains of the coaches. It is looking like that win was probably more of an outlier than a leading indicator though. But since UCSB is in one of the top conferences in the country, they get the benefit of the doubt (and the vote).
VBelo Rankings
Let’s take a look at the latest VBelo ranking and compare it to the coaches poll.
Long Beach was able to climb up to #2 in the rankings over the weekend. One of my complaints about the coaches poll is the recency bias that seems pretty clear. The Beach did have two big wins over the weekend, but UCLA still has the edge with VBelo. Since the Bruins didn’t play this past weekend, they didn’t have the opportunity to win or lose any VBelo points. In case you are wondering, UCLA has this week off as well so don’t expect them to move any.
This past weekend, Saint Francis took Penn State to five sets twice. The Red Flash didn’t even receive votes in yesterday’s poll, which seems crazy. VBelo has them sitting at 16th which is impressive even though they lost twice this weekend. They seem to be overlooked, possibly because they compete in a new conference.
It also looks like the MIVA is undervalued by the coaches poll right now. VBelo has them as a tightly grouped bunch. This week Ball State will take on Ohio State as they look to sweep the season series and cement their position at the top. The seeding for the MIVA tournament will be extra important this year (due to some new seeding rules) so these next weeks are crucial.
Now it’s your turn. Share your hot (or lukewarm) take below!
The Return of RPI
I’m not going to go into it fully right now, but I’m not a fan of RPI. Long-time readers might remember this. So when I saw the news that the NCAA released the latest (and worst) RPI, I shed a metaphorical tear.
Last year, the NCAA decided to add KPI to the national tournament selection criteria for Men’s Volleyball. It was not clear if they would be removing RPI and replacing it with KPI, but it appears we have the answer now. RPI is still here and KPI will be added to the mix.1 I will talk more about KPI later, but for now, it is worth noting that it takes things into account like home court and margin of victory that RPI does not. The sad part about KPI is that we don’t know the exact formula (but don’t worry I am planning to try and figure it out.)
If you want to check out KPI, it is online! As far as I know, this is the official KPI.
But back to RPI, here is where we stand right now.2
Last season, I coded the RPI calculation so that no one would need to wait for the NCAA to release it weekly. I ran the numbers this year and around the 4th decimal place they were off. When I took a closer look, I noticed something interesting. It would appear that the NCAA is counting matches with teams that I am not. I don’t want to say they are wrong here, but I disagree with their decision.
Here is an example: Roosevelt University moved to D-II for their athletics but their Men’s Volleyball program still competes in the NAIA. Right now the Lakers (not those Lakers) are on the RPI rankings. I see what the NCAA is doing since the institution is D-II, but that is not an accurate reflection of what is happening. Right now, it looks like the NCAA is counting matches with Roosevelt and Menlo. Interestingly, Vanguard is on the list as well but doesn’t have an RPI, so I’m not sure if they are in the calculation or not.
I say all this to let you know that I have to rework some of my code for RPI to figure out how to represent this. Personally, I think my calculation is more accurate, but the NCAA didn’t ask me. Go figure.
Match Recaps
No matches yesterday.
Match Projections
Non-conference
Talladega College (14%) vs Emmanuel (86%)
Lincoln Memorial (87%) vs King (13%)
Tusculum (75%) vs Lees-McRae (25%)
Fontbonne (5%) vs Maryville (95%)
I would love to find out more about how they will use both of these metrics.
The URL for RPI on NCAA stats has a fun easter egg. RPI is found in a subcategory called “nitty_gritties”!