SIAC Tournament Projections
It's time to start dancing in the South.
The SIAC used to be the new kids in town, but not so much anymore. This conference has shown impressive growth and will show the world yet another great conference tournament. Ooh yeah, there is a ticket to the NCAA Tournament on the line too.
The Bracket
Typically, the SIAC has a six team tournament. But this season is not typical. With the cancellation/pause of both Morehouse and LeMoyne-Owen this year, the SIAC was left with only five teams, so a five team tournament it is. As usual, the entire tournament is played at a single host site and this year it is at Edward Waters. For those paying close attention, there are two conference tournaments in Florida this year.
When you look at the bracket it only looks like Fort Valley State gets a bye, but in reality, Benedict and Central State also make it straight to the semifinals. This setup still favors Fort Valley as they will be the only team playing a “tired” team.
Something to keep in mind for future seasons is that the NCAA requires six teams in a conference to get an automatic qualification to the NCAA Tournament. They still qualify this season, but it will be interesting to see how this pans out, especially if teams do not return next season.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the Conference Carolinas tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
Unsurprisingly, Fort Valley State is the heavy favorite to return to the big stage. 2 out of 3 simulations of the tournament ended with the Wildcats dancing. Just looking at the VBelo rating for the teams, there is a clear front runner. They are undefeated in conference play for a reason.
Looking down the bracket, the next three seeds are evenly matched. I think this is going to lead to some exciting matches in the lead up to the finals. As always, you should always keep a close eye on the home team.
Can anyone stop Fort Valley State? Will Central State play spoiler? Is Edward Waters ready to ride home court advantage to an upset?