SIAC Tournament Preview
With round-by-round projections! There is a heavy favorite to punch the first ticket to the NCAA tournament.
The first conference tournament of the 2025 season kicks off on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the first ticket will be punched for a team to the National Collegiate tournament in Columbus, Ohio.
This will be the fourth SIAC tournament and the second in which the winner will receive an automatic qualification (AQ) to the NCAA tournament. This year, Fort Valley State will host the two-day tournament. Unlike other conferences, the SIAC also includes matches for third and fifth place.
The Bracket
The SIAC has a 6-team tournament with the top two seeds receiving a bye into the semifinals. Since there are seven teams in the SIAC, one team does not make the postseason.1 Interestingly, both the quarterfinals and the semifinals are played on the same day. This gives an even larger advantage to the top seeds who do not have to play a double-header.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the SIAC tournament 50,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
Unsurprisingly, Fort Valley State is the HEAVY favorite to win it all. The model sees them punching their second straight ticket to the NCAA tournament after an undefeated conference schedule. Since the conference tournament is held at their home court, I won’t be surprised to see the Wildcats in Ohio in a few weeks.
The biggest threat to the Wildcat-back-to-back (they should trade mark this!) is Edward Waters. This is largely due to the fact that they also have a bye to the semifinals.
There is a combined 5.42% chance of the winning team being seeded 3-6. The SIAC is very top heavy right now. This is a conversation for another day, but I will be very interested to see how potential changes to roster limits impact the SIAC.
Now that you have seen the bracket and the projections, who do you think will win? Will it be a Wildcat-Back-to-Back? Or will someone rise to the occasion and spoil the homecourt celebration?
Kentucky State has struggled with roster issues late in the season and was unable to complete most of their scheduled conference matches. Hopefully, they can get everything figured out for the 2026 season. 🙏
The fact that the SIAC gives a team an extra match is a celebration of Volleyball. A 5th and 3rd place game is a nice touch.