Outrigger Invitational Preview
The only way to spend Spring Break
I just want to start by apologizing for 3 newsletters in the same day. I promise I’m not trying to blow up anyone’s inboxes. There was some interesting stuff I was looking into for the Outrigger so I thought I would share it with all of you awesome people.
Outrigger: A (Very) Brief History
This year marks the 30th OUTRIGGER Volleyball Invitational.1 UCLA and Hawaii are the most successful teams at the tournament over the years. Combined, they have 20 tournament championships. This is an event that attracts some of the top teams in the nation. The #1 ranked team has appeared in four of the past five Outriggers.
UCLA is 37-7 all-time at the Outrigger with 9 titles, including a 4-peat. Lewis is 9-15 and their best finish is runner-up in 2012 and 2016. Mount Olive will be making their debut this year at the Outrigger and this will be their first time ever facing Hawaii.
Here is a great visual representation of the Outrigger champions over the years by The Volleyball Recap.
National Rankings
Let’s take a look at where these teams stack up in terms of the national picture.
The first thing that stands out to me is that the top left corner of this chart is very green. And here green is good. UCLA and Hawaii and powerhouses and getting to see them face off will be amazing.
There are only three slots that are blank. UMO is not in the top 20 in the AVCA poll but I can’t imagine they are out by too much looking at the other rankings. Then UCLA’s digs and UMO’s aces are not in the top 50 nationally. If those are the “worst” parts of this chart, there is a lot to be happy about.
Interestingly, all four teams are in the top 20 in blocks per set. More accurately, they are between 7th (2.52) and 17th (2.25). That is about a quarter of a block per set separating the top from the bottom here. I won’t be surprised if we get to see some Monster Blocks this tournament.
How They Got Here
Let’s zoom into these team’s VBelo Ratings this season to see how they have navigated 2026.
UCLA just keeps climbing. This shouldn’t be surprising. They haven’t lost. If you win, you gain elo. The math isn’t too hard here. Since the model thinks they really are that good, they don’t gain a ton for any one match. But don’t be fooled, they are separating from everyone, including the other teams in the Outrigger.
Hawaii has a similar trajectory as UCLA, but that early loss to Loyola really set them back. This is a team that is in the elite conversation at the top. The best news for them this week is that they are the hosts of the Outrigger and home court matters.
Lewis is a fascinating team. You can really feel the ebbs and flows from looking at this graph. They started out red hot but hit a rough patch. Now they are back winning six of their last 7 heading into tonight. They have had some significant injuries this season, but Dan Friend knows how to coach a volleyball team so you cannot count them out.
Mount Olive is in a really interesting situation for the Outrigger. They will play the underdog for every match they play. In this sense, they have nothing to lose, which is exactly what makes them so dangerous. Just like Lewis, they hit a rough patch, but they have been back on track lately. The Conference Carolinas has been flexing its muscles this season and I wouldn’t be that surprised if UMO makes a splash on the island.
Let’s Talk Odds
First, a disclaimer: these odds are going to shift. The model will take into account match results from games as they happen so Friday and Saturday will not look like this exactly. Disclaimer aside, we have a pretty good idea of the overall odds.
Here is what the match projections look like right now.
As usual, day three is going to be the big one. The most likely scenario is that Match 6 will crown the tournament champion. I also think that it is very likely that the winner will go 3-0 on the weekend. For fun, here are the odds of each team going undefeated at the Outrigger.
UCLA - 48.23%
Hawaii - 38.17%
Lewis - 0.54%
UMO - 0.09%
You’ve seen the numbers, you watched the teams, and now it is time for the real deal. Who will win it all? Who is going to surprise us? What will we learn this weekend from the Outrigger that we don’t already know?
This is a cool review. Soon there will be more