NEC Tournament Projections

The first NEC ticket is ready to be punched.

NEC

The NEC has been waiting for this moment for years. For the first time ever, an NEC team will be in the national tournament! The only question is who will that team be? This is what growing the game looks like and I am thrilled the NEC has a spot in the big dance.

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The Bracket

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I do love a conference with a straight forward format. Four teams, one location, winner takes all. As the #1 seed, Saint Francis will get to host the tournament. With the tournament happening over two days, this is a quick, no-nonsense ordeal.

Although the NCAA requires conferences field six teams, the NEC received a waiver for this year with only 5 teams. Of those five teams, D’Youville missed the cut and will be planning their strategy for next season.

Coming into the final weekend, SFU and LIU battled it out for the top seed. Saint Francis won both matches and will get the coveted 1 vs 4 draw, instead of the tougher 2 vs 3.

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Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the NEC tournament 50,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

Saint Francis earned the right to host this two day tournament, which means the coveted home court advantage. They are the favorites to earn the first-ever NEC spot in the national tournament.

Just because they are the favorites, doesn’t mean they are a lock. Long Island would like a re-do of their regular season finale. They have the pieces to make it all the way and have almost a 1 in 4 chance of doing it.

Let’s not count out the lower seeds either. They have shown their ability to stay in tough matches and could pull off the upset.

Will SFU get the inaugural ticket? Will Long Island spoil the home court celebration? Can a Daemen or FDU play Cinderella?