NCAA Tournament Projections
NCAA Tournament Projections
Welcome to tournament week!
It is finally time for the NCAA Men’s Volleyball national championship tournament. Long Beach will host the largest field in the history of the tournament with eight teams. Instead of the wonky 7-team format, we get a logical 8-team, single-elimination tournament. Even numbers just make better tournaments.
Tomorrow I am hoping to look into the quarterfinal matchups. Today, let’s just look at the big picture and see what VBelo thinks of this tournament.
Tournament Projection
Right now, this looks to be a two-team race between Long Beach and UCLA. The #2 seed, Long Beach has the slight edge at winning the tournament. It doesn’t hurt that they are the home team. Although the NCAA categorizes these matches as neutral courts, VBelo treats them as home matches for Long Beach. The VBelo model gives them a 40% chance of taking home the trophy. Right behind them is UCLA, looking to repeat, with 35%.
Part of the reason you see these strong numbers is because of their VBelo ratings. These are the only teams over 2400 and they are going up against the two weakest teams in the tournament (which is how the tournament is designed). Since VBelo really likes their odds to make it to the semifinals, they have more chances to make it all the way to the end.
The next tier of teams includes Grand Canyon and Penn State. Grand Canyon has put together a phenomenal season. They were the talk of the town, being the last undefeated team in the country. Penn State has flown more under the radar. They had an undefeated conference schedule and have held their own against some strong challenges. VBelo likes the Nittany Lions more than most polls so this will be interesting. Both of these teams can earn the trophy so don’t sleep on them.
Next up are UC Irvine and Ohio State. Sure, VBelo only gives them a 3% chance of winning the tournament, but these teams have the skill and experience to go all the way. You can’t underestimate these teams, but it is an uphill battle.
Then there are the newest conferences to the tournament. Belmont Abbey and Fort Valley State will look to play major underdogs. One of the downsides of this format is that the teams at the bottom of the seeds have a significantly lower chance of winning. Previously, although technically unseeded, the #6 and #7 teams would play each other. This provides a lot more room for victory than a #1 vs #8 or #2 vs #7 matchup like we see this year.
What do you think of these projections? Who do you think will win? Who is most likely to surprise us all?
All teams are in the area but a few may need to worry about getting acclimated to the area not because of altitude but time or body clocks. The B1G schools EIVA & MIVA Champs arrived on Saturday it seems so that will help. The 3-6 &4-5 matches are razor thin in my opinion so the arrival time will help the east coast teams in those matches.
Exciting times after a week of health and preparation. It should be a joyous time here in Long Beach.