NCAA Quarterfinals
Round-by-round projections, today's matches, & the continued effort to save GCU. Are you not entertained?
The final site of the NCAA tournament is here! Today we are honored to witness four incredible matches between eight incredible teams. There is a lot to cover today, but I want to start by saying the volleyball community is a wonderful place. I am so thrilled to be a part of this community and I know that we are all stronger together.
Round-by-Round Projections
Since this is the National Tournament, I decided to run 100,000 simulations through the VBelo model. This is twice as many as the conference tournaments. And for those wondering, I do use the exact format as the tournament, including where each match is played. Details matter.
Long Beach is the number one seed and the favorite to win the national championship. With a 45% chance of winning the whole thing, they will have a target on their back the entire tournament.
UCLA and Hawaii both have a significant chance of being champions. In terms of their VBelo ratings, they are within 1 point of each other. This is ridiculously close! Since the model gives UCLA a better chance of reaching the semifinals, they have slightly higher odds of adding another trophy to their collection.
The top four is rounded out by Loyola who has about a 10% chance of winning. They would have to go through Long Beach, which dramatically decreases their odds, but they are a legitimate threat.
The lower seeds are definitely longshots, according to the model. That doesn’t mean we won’t get great matches. These teams have made it to the big stage and there are no easy matches left in the season. Personally, I always love a good underdog story and I hope you get a great one this year.
Today's Match Projections
#1 Long Beach (98%) vs #8 Fort Valley State (2%)
#2 Hawai'i (73%) vs #7 Penn State (27%)
#3 UCLA (86%) vs #6 Belmont Abbey (14%)
#4 Loyola Chicago (62%) vs #5 Pepperdine (38%)
GCU and the Great Betrayal
A little less than two weeks ago, GCU announced the cancelation of their Men’s Volleyball program. Since that moment, the outrage and action from the MVB community has been non-stop.
I’m going to keep my comments short. This is an outrageous decision by an institution that has a long and storied history of being focused on the financial bottom line.
I want justice for the players, coaches, staff, families, and everyone else impacted. On the one hand, this shows me that the GCU administration doesn’t deserve to have a men’s volleyball program. These actions are atrocious. On the other hand, I want this program reinstated and to thrive. I want nothing more than for this team to be a constant reminder of how bad the administration messed up.
I would urge you all to follow the Save GCU Men’s Volleyball account on Instagram. They are doing the work and have updates from on the ground. Seriously, hats off to them.
I wish I could say that this is a one-off event and that nothing else like this will happen. I wish I could say that no more programs will get cancelled in the off-season. Sadly, I would not be surprised if that happened.
These programs need support and that looks like a lot of things. At the top of the list is financial support. If you have the means, please support a program (or twenty). Follow them on social media. Watch their matches online and in-person. Email a coach a kind and supportive note. Or even better, email an administrator at a school to let them know how much the sport matters to you.
We are all in this together and I hope that the volleyball community supports all of the programs who find themselves in tough situations.
