NCAA Championship (VBelo Daily: May 11, 2026)
Match #1005 for all the marbles. It's National Championship time!
Number of the Day
1,005 - The growth of Men’s Volleyball has been a joy to witness these past few years. From adding dozens of teams to expanding the tournament to 12, the growth has been incredible. Today, the 1,005th match of the season will be played. This is the first time there has ever been over 1,000 matches in a season for men’s volleyball. Growth!
Another exciting consequence to growth is the tournament expansion. This year we had a record 5 at-large bids. This gave us an opportunity to get 2 at-large teams in the finals. In the very recent past, one or both of these teams would have been left out of the tournament all together. This is what growing the game looks like! The sport is better because of this growth and we all get to celebrate.
Today’s Championship Match Projection
#2 Hawai’i (61%) vs UC Irvine (39%)
Players to Watch
Hawaii
Tread Rosenthal (Setter) is dealing with a lower body injury from Saturday. His mobility and serving could be a major factor is how this match pans out.
Justine Todd (Middle) had one of his best games of his career in the semifinals. UC Irvine loves to run the middle so Todd will likely see a lot of action tonight.
UC Irvine
Trevor Clark (Middle) went from Junior College (San Diego Mesa College) to the NCAA National Collegiate Finals in just a year. Like Todd, Middle isn’t his natural position, but somehow that makes him all the more dangerous.
Shane Aitken (Libero) was the only Libero named to the AVCA 1st Team All-American list. There is a reason for that. His passing is elite and that is why UCI can run the middle as much as they do. If Aitken continues his double-digit dig streak, that could spell trouble for Hawaii.
Path to the Championship
These two teams have had very different paths to the final match of the season. Here is a look at what it has looked like, according to the model.
Hawaii took a big loss (Loyola) early in the season and has been earning their elo points back over the season, with limited losses. The Rainbow Warriors are near their season high for VBelo, which is great for their chances. Beginning to end, Hawaii has been trending up and has been on almost everyone’s radar as a national championship contender.
Then you have UC Irvine. They started off hot with 11 straight wins. This was followed by a period of plateau with a slight downward trend due to some tough losses. That being said, the Anteaters are playing some of their best volleyball right now, and the numbers show that. From where they started the season, this is a much improved and incredibly dangerous team to overlook. For a decent part of the first half of the season, the model had UC Irvine above Hawaii. This is in direct contract to the AVCA Coaches’ Poll that never had UCI above Hawaii all season.
In the end, these are two top programs in the country with incredible amounts of talent. It is going to come down to who plays the cleaner match. I fully expect to see high-level volleyball and a level of grit and determination that only the finals can bring out.