MPSF Tournament Projections

The battle in Provo is ready to start.

MPSF

The MPSF has its eyes set on getting two of the five at-large bids to the National Tournament. This tournament will play a major factor in if that hope can become a reality.

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The Bracket

The MPSF currently has a very straightforward 8-team bracket. I say currently, because the MPSF has used some very creative brackets in the past. The uniqueness for the MPSF comes with how the seeding works. With the expansion of the MPSF, teams do not end up playing every team in the conference. To adjust for this, a five person committee votes on the seeding.

UCLA, unsurprisingly, received the top spot. Zero surprise here. Pepperdine at #2 and USC at #3 were all in line with conference standings. In fact the only difference between the seedings and conference standings was Vanguard.

With ten teams currently in the MPSF, both Menlo and UC Merced missed out on the postseason. These teams will definitely look to regroup and make a splash in one of the top conferences in the nation next year.

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Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the MPSF tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

UCLA enters the MPSF tournament as the favorite, but it won’t be a cake walk. If the regular season is any indication, it will come down to the Bruins and the Waves. Both of these teams want to make the NCAA Tournament, and I think they both will.

Being the host, BYU was able to rise to third most likely to win, but it is a long shot. USC will likely need to make the finals to have a strong resume for a potential at-large, but that is a tough road.

Given the range of VBelo for the MPSF, the bottom of the bracket will have a very hard time making a splash. Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? It is not.

Will someone stop UCLA? Can Pepperdine defend last year’s trophy? Can BYU ride the home court advantage to the national tournament? Who can pull off an upset?