MIVA Tournament Projections
The home stretch of MIVA madness is sure to thrill and excite.
The MIVA is poised for some bigtime performances in their conference tournament. This conference has been so fun to watch all season and I am expecting some highly competitive matches. If we know anything about the MIVA, it is that anyone could win this. But that doesn’t mean everyone has the same chances.
The Bracket
I love a nice, logical tournament format. The MIVA is the only conference that has an eight-team format this season. They are also one of two conferences to play all of the matches at the higher seed. This gives a huge advantage to the top teams in the MIVA, especially Loyola as they are the top seed in the tournament.
Loyola and McKendree finished conference play at 13-3, but the Ramblers had the tiebreaker in head-to-head sets. Ohio State and Lewis also finished with the same conference record (11-5). That tiebreaker also came down to head-to-head sets, with the Buckeyes coming out on top for the #3 seed.
Down at the bottom of the bracket, Queens made the cut over Quincy for the final spot in the MIVA tournament. You can’t count out the lower seeds though. Quincy, who did not make the tournament, pulled an upset over the five seed (Ball State). So yeah, a lot could happen.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the MIVA tournament 50,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
Home court is a big thing in men’s volleyball. As the #1 seed, Loyola is guaranteed to play all of their matches at home, and their projection shows it. Almost half of the 50,000 simulations of the MIVA tournament had the Ramblers winning the spot in the national tournament.
Sure, 50% is a lot, but the top four seeds all have at least a 10% chance of winning. This is evidence of the parity that the MIVA has shown all year. McKendree and Ohio State have very similar odds and could definitely pull off the tournament upset.
The quarterfinals might be chalky, but I have a feeling the semifinals will be non-stop action. This conference is worth watching because just about anything could happen.
Who do you think will win the coveted MIVA trophy? Who is best positioned to play Cinderella? Will this tournament be complete madness?
One should not be surprised if any of the top 6 wins. Ohio Srate and Lewis could do it from the lower seed. Is Ball State healthy? So many questions, but the answers will be revealed