IVA Tournament Projections
They might be independent, but this conference means business.
One of the greatest frustrations I have with NCAA Men’s Volleyball is that the IVA does not get an automatic qualifier for the national tournament. I firmly believe they deserve a spot.
This season, the IVA was tied for the largest conference in the country at nine teams. Their conference tournament will take place at Maryville and looks to be just as incredible as we could hope.
The Bracket
Nine teams is not the most ideal number for a tournament. The above bracket is very likely the format we will see for the national tournament this year. The #8 and #9 teams will compete for a spot in the quarterfinals while the rest of the matches play out as expected.
Lincoln Memorial earned the #1 seed by finishing the regular season at 21-1, the only one-loss team in the nation. The Railsplitters were 3-0 against IVA teams. They are nationally ranked and are looking to capture their seventh straight IVA championship.
After the top seed, I must admit, I’m not 100% confident on how the seeding works. Barry was 1-0 against IVA teams, but had the 6th best season winning percentage of the IVA teams. They are the #7 seed.
It does appear that overall season performance significantly shaped these seeds. If you order the teams just by their winning percentage you get the following order:
Lincoln Memorial (.955)
Maryville (.680)
Rockhurst (.643)
Tusculum (.571)
Catawba (.542)
Barry (.435)
Missouri S&T (.435)
Thomas More (.333)
Roosevelt (.238)
If anyone knows more about how the IVA seeds are decided, feel free to let me know.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the IVA tournament 50,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
Lincoln Memorial enters the IVA Tournament with an 85% chance of earning yet another trophy. Are they that good? Yes. Yes they are. That being said, there are a lot of matches to play and there will be some amazing matchups.
Maryville, as the host and the two seed, will look to challenge LMU for the crown. They have a chance, but it is an uphill climb, to be sure.
The battle to make the semifinals will be epic. There is tons of talent in this field of nine teams and I can’t wait to see how this all pans out.
Who can stop the Railsplitters? Will home court propel Maryville? What are all of the reasons you love the IVA?
I’m pretty sure the IVA is using kpi for tournament seeding