First Tourney Ticket Friday

After today, we will know the first of six automatic qualifiers for the National Tournament.

The Lindenwood Lions handed the first loss to a #1 seed this post-season. (Don Adams Jr./Lindenwood Athletics)

We only have a baker’s dozen matches left before the National Tournament hosted at Long Beach. After today, we will have our first definitive glimpse of what that tournament will look like.

The SIAC will be the first conference to determine who gets an automatic qualification. This will be the first SIAC team to make it to the tournament in the young conference’s history. This is growing the game and I am thrilled to find out who will get the inaugural honors.

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Bracketology

First of all, the best Bracketology in the land belongs to Vinnie Lopes over at Off The Block. Seriously, go check out their stuff if you aren’t already glued to their blog.

One day, I would love to make some type of model that predicts the at-large bids and the seeding of the tournament. Since that doesn’t exist yet, I have to rely on my interpretation of the numbers.

#7 & #8

I don’t want to jinx it, but I think we know a decent amount about the bracket already. Let’s start with the larger numbers. The #8 seed will be the team out of the SIAC. Fort Valley State is the favorite to get this spot. The #7 seed will then go to the Conference Carolinas. This is still up for grabs, but Belmont is the favorite here. These spots are pretty clear in terms of KPI, RPI, and Conference Strength. Even VBelo would agree with these seeds.

#1

At the top of the bracket, UCLA looks likely to take the #1 seed, regardless of how they do in the MPSF tournament. They dominate the metrics. VBelo has UCLA as the strongest team in the country with some room to spare.

#2 & #3

At #2 and #3, I suspect we will have Long Beach and Grand Canyon. While that is the order I think they will be in, I could see GCU getting the #2 seed if they upset UCLA in the MPSF finals and Long Beach loses in the Big West finals. Even if both of these teams lose their conference tournaments, I think they both get in. This is largely due to the MPSF finals being set with UCLA or Grand Canyon guaranteed a spot in the nationals.

#4, #5, & #6

That just leaves three spots left. They will belong to an at-large team, the EIVA, and the MIVA. The order will be determined by the results in the Big West and EIVA. If those tournaments go chalk, then UC Irvine will get the #4 seed, Penn State will get the #5 seed, and #6 will be Ohio State. In this scenario, Lindenwood would also be the #6 if they win.

If George Mason wins the EIVA, they could be slated at #6 behind Ohio State or right above Lindenwood at #5, depending on the MIVA.

The match with the biggest impact though, looks to be UC Irvine and Hawaii today in the Big West semifinals. Assuming that Long Beach reaches the finals, the winner of this match will be the favorite to get the last at-large spot. And yes, if CSUN wins the Big West, they create some chaos and take a spot from UC Irvine and Hawaii.

A Possible Bracket

I won’t call this a projection since I don’t have a model. Instead, here is what seems likely as of Friday morning.

Let me know what you think.

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Match Recaps

Big West Quarterfinals

#5 CSU Northridge (44%) def. #4 UC San Diego (56%)
3-0 (25-20, 28-26, 25-22)

#3 Hawai'i (92%) def. #6 UC Santa Barbara (8%)
3-1 (23-25, 25-20, 25-17, 25-23)

EIVA Semifinals

#1 Penn State (94%) def. #5 Harvard (6%)
3-1 (28-26, 25-16, 26-28, 27-25)

#2 George Mason (76%) def. #6 Charleston (24%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-16, 25-18)

MIVA Semifinals

#4 Lindenwood (35%) def. #1 Ball State (65%)
3-2 (20-25, 25-21, 23-25, 25-19, 15-11)

#3 Ohio State (46%) def. #2 Loyola Chicago (54%)
3-1 (25-20, 26-24, 26-28, 25-22)

MPSF Semifinals

#1 UCLA (90%) def. #6 Southern California (10%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-16, 25-21)

#2 Grand Canyon (68%) def. #4 Stanford (32%)
3-1 (25-15, 24-26, 27-25, 25-17)

NEC Semifinals

#1 Saint Francis (92%) def. #6 Sacred Heart (8%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-19, 25-22)

#2 Daemen (71%) def. #4 Fairleigh Dickinson (29%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-21, 25-13)

SIAC Quarterfinals

#3 Central State (88%) def. #6 Morehouse (12%)
3-0 (25-8, 25-13, 25-10)

#4 Kentucky State (46%) def. #5 Benedict (54%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-20, 25-17)

SIAC Semifinals

#1 Fort Valley State (88%) def. #4 Kentucky State (12%)
3-0 (25-13, 25-11, 25-15)

#3 Central State (35%) def. #2 Edward Waters (65%)
3-1 (19-25, 25-21, 25-18, 25-23)

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Match Projections

SIAC Championship

#3 Central State (26%) vs #1 Fort Valley State (74%)

Big West Semifinals

#5 CSU Northridge (8%) vs #1 Long Beach (92%)

#2 UC Irvine (31%) vs #3 Hawai'i (69%)

ConfCarolinas Semifinals

#1 Belmont Abbey (66%) vs #4 Mount Olive (34%)

#6 King (20%) vs #2 North Greenville (80%)