EIVA Tournament Projections

One last dance for Pav, but nothing is a sure thing these days.

EIVA

The story all season in the EIVA was the retirement of Coach Mark Pavlik of Penn State. After 27 regular season titles and 11 EIVA Coach of the Year awards, everyone respects Pav and they want to be the ones to send him into retirement.

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The Bracket

EIVA

The EIVA has a straight forward tournament setup with 6 teams making the postseason. The top two teams receive a bye into the semifinals. Most importantly, the #1 seed gets to host the tournament.

Penn State is no stranger to being the top dog in the EIVA. In the past 32 seasons (the Pav Era), they have 25 EIVA Tournament titles. After going undefeated in conference play, they are in a great spot to do it again.

NJIT received the other bye with a 9-3 EIVA record. They were followed closely by George Mason at 3. The middle of this conference will be highly competitive and will produce some fun matches.

The team left out of the tournament this season as Harvard. In a brutal three-way tie for 5th, the Crimson were the odd men out this time. After losing the season series to Princeton to finish 2026, the Crimson will look to 2027 with hopes of making the EIVA tournament.

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Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the EIVA tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

Penn State is the heavy favorite and that feels like an understatement. With an over 80% chance of winning, it will take an all-time performance from an opponent to deny Pav. It definitely helps to get a bye and play at home.

NJIT and GMU have a slim chance of winning, but it is an uphill climb. Speaking of uphill climb, Sacred Heart is in an interesting position. Even though they have a 36% chance of making it to the semifinals, since they have to go through Penn State before the finals, their odds are less than Princeton’s.

We have seen dramatic upsets in the EIVA before, but will it happen this year? Can anyone stop Pav’s Pulverizers? Can NJIT or GMU rise to the top? What drama does the EIVA have in store for us?