ECC Tournament Projections
Will we have a back-to-back champion in this young conference?
On Friday, two more conference tournaments kick off. The ECC is in its second year sponsoring Men’s Volleyball and has not yet met the requirements to get an automatic qualification to the national tournament. In spite of that, the bragging rights are very real and so is skill on the court.
The Bracket
With just four teams, every ECC team makes the conference tournament. Also, the number four is fantastic for a nice logical tournament. The ECC hosts their tournament at a single site. This year the host school is St. Thomas Aquinas, a nice boost for the #1 seed.
STAC completed the first perfect conference season (6-0) in the young history of the ECC. Not only were they undefeated, but they didn’t drop a single set in those six matches.
Roberts Wesleyan and Dominican both finished conference play at 3-3. These two teams split their season series, but RWU received the tie-breaker due to sets won in the season series (5-4).
American International rounds out tournament as the #4 seed. The Yellowjackets have struggled to find a consistent winning pattern this season as they enter the tournament 4-19 on the year.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the ECC tournament 50,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
St. Thomas Aquinas is the HEAVY favorite to take home their second consecutive ECC championship. Not only were they undefeated in conference play, but they are hosting the tournament. This is a recipe for a trophy, if I have ever seen one.
The VBelo rating between the #1 seed and the rest of the field is significant. Even though they are second most likely to win, RWU has less than 1/10 of the chance of STAC to take home the trophy.
Wild things can happen, but this conference tournament has a clear favorite with a path to a championship. Do you think St. Thomas Aquinas will repeat? Will they drop a set? Who can pull off the upset?
STAC is having a great season. Their home court is very unique and the advantage is HUGE. Many teams do not adapt in those STAC surrondings.