Conference Carolinas Tournament Projections
Those first-round byes are a powerful thing.
The first conference tournament of 2026 is upon us. With an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line, expect the unexpected.
The Bracket
The Conference Carolinas has a fun hybrid location setup. The first round, played by seeds three through six, is played at the higher seed. Then the final four teams all advance to a final location. This year, #1 Belmont Abbey will host the festivities.
The two byes belong to #1 Belmont Abbey and #2 Mount Olive. There were the only two teams in the conference above .500 in conference play. This means that the lower seeds are going to be highly competitive as they all went 7-7 or 6-8.
Missing out on the tournament this year are Barton and King. In a sad tie-breaker, Barton was also 6-8, but ended up finishing 7th, just outside of a spot in the tournament.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the Conference Carolinas tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
Belmont Abbey is not only the top seed in this tournament, but they get a bye AND they are the home team. The deck is stacked in their favor. With a 3 in 4 chance of winning the tournament, the Crusaders have their eyes on getting back to the national tournament for a third straight year.
Mount Olive is the only other team with more than a 3% chance of taking home the trophy, which is surprising in this competitive conference. Just four days ago, #6 Emmanuel knocked off #2 Mount Olive at UMO! So there is definitely some room drama.
Speaking of drama, Emmanuel actually has the 4th best odds of winning, despite being the six seed. Don’t be shocked when this bracket doesn’t go chalk!
Who will reign supreme in the Carolinas? Will the home court advantage be too much for the competition? Will Mount Olive seize the day? Will a lower seed surprise everyone?