Big West Tournament Projections
The don't call it the BIG West for nothing.
Six teams, all ranked. Every single one of them is dangerous in the postseason. All of them know that the best way to get to the National Tournament is to win the conference tournament. Expect some big time performances in Irvine.
The Bracket
Another standard 6-team bracket hosted at a preselected host site. This year UC Irvine will host the festivities as the #3 seed. Quick side note, as I write this, I am sitting in the airport on my way to the Big West Tournament. So that’s fun!
Hawaii enters the Big West Tournament as the #1 seed after dropping only one match in conference play Rival Long Beach is right behind them at #2, earning the other bye.
This is a conference that is looking to get three teams to the NCAA Tournament so these next few days will be huge. UC Irvine should feel like every match matters, because it really does for them. At this point, a conference trophy would be nice for Hawaii and Long Beach, but they don’t need it like the Anteaters do.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the Big West tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
This is the most interesting conference projection so far. Neither the #1 seed nor the home team are the favorite. Also, no team has a majority of the chances to win the championship. There is a lot going on in this conference.
If you look closely, you will notice that Long Beach currently has the highest VBelo Rating. After defeating UCI last week, they just moved ahead of Hawaii. When you add in travel, Long Beach is coming into this tournament with a solid chance of winning it all.
Hawaii has the best chances to reach finals and a very good chance of winning it all. This is a situation where having the top seed is a big advantage in terms of the overall bracket path.
The UCSB vs UCSD match will be a great rematch from last week. Both of these teams have had incredible moments this year, but they have also struggled at times. The real question will be what team will show up today.
Who will rise to the top in the Big West? Will Long Beach lock in the auto-bid? Will Hawaii ride the #1 seed to victory? Can Irvine harness the power of the Bren? Who will pull off an upset? This is the Big West!
Safe travels. UCI has not been invincible at the Bren. UH beat the other top seeds on their buildings. What a tournament to behold on ESPN+.
I'm guessing the model didn't like Hawaii's blip against UCSD very much. They are a bit banged up in the middle, but Adrien Roure appears to have snapped out of whatever funk he has been in right one time. Tread should be the difference.
Hopefully, all the Jordan Lucas fans will be able to get tickets and experience MVB at its best.