Big West Tournament Projections
Not much is bigger than the Big West Tournament.
It is finally time to get the Big West party started. This conference has been a powerhouse all season and every team has quality wins. The stage is set for an epic showdown in Hawaii and I am sure it won’t disappoint.
The Bracket
First, let’s get this out of the way. The full name of this tournament is “The Hawaiian Islands presents the 2025 Outrigger Big West Men's Volleyball Championship.” This definitely wins for the longest title for a tournament. One day, maybe we will get the same level of sponsorship for these conference tournaments as college football bowl games.1
The Big West moves the host location around and this will be the second year in a row that Hawaii will host. As is the case with several other conferences, the Big West tournament has six teams with the top two teams earning a bye.
Long Beach and Hawaii received the byes and will look to renew their rivalry in the championship. There are four other teams that are looking to make sure that doesn’t happen though.
After the surprising upset of Hawaii in the final match of the regular season, UCSB forced a three-way tie with CSUN and UCSD. With the tiebreakers, the #9 ranked team in the country, CSUN, is the six seed in this tournament. Just let that sink in. This tournament is set to be a wild ride, beginning to end.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the Big West tournament 50,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
In a surprise to probably no one, the number one team in the country is the favorite to win this tournament. Long Beach has a little over a 60% chance of winning the tournament. Another way of saying this is that if we played this exact tournament 5 times, the Beach would probably win 3 of those times.
There are a lot of questions around injuries for Hawaii (something the model does not take into account). Even with that, the home court advantage cannot be overstated. This season, home teams have won 61% of their matches.
Behind Hawaii is UC Irvine who is looking to put all of the pieces together at the same time this weekend. They are likely to reach the semifinals, but that is far from a sure thing, as this tournament is stacked top to bottom.
Based on what we have seen from CSUN, UCSD, and UCSB this season, we know they can play the underdog to perfection. The model may not love their chances of reaching the finals, but I won’t be shocked if it happens, especially in the 2/3/6 seed part of the bracket. Every set is going to be competitive.
Will Long Beach defend their #1 national ranking? Will the home court advantage be enough to carry an ailing Hawaii? Will Henno flip the switch and be unstoppable? Who is best positioned to pull off the upset from the lower seeds?
I love the idea of the “Pop Tarts presents the 2029 Frosted Brown Sugar EIVA Men’s Volleyball Championship.”