2026 NCAA Tournament Projections
It's tournament time!
We have been waiting all season for this and this weekend we will begin the opening round of the 2026 NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball Championship. This twelve team tournament has great matchups that will be sure to deliver top tier volleyball. So let’s dive in!
The Bracket
For the first time, we get to see double digit teams in the postseason! Here is how it works. The top four teams technically the only seeded teams. These four seeds will each host a regional opening round and a final match. (Going into Selection Sunday there was no guarantee that these seeds would also host.) The four teams that win the regionals will advance to the final site. This year the final site will be UCLA’s Pauley Pavilion.
Looking at how the bracket was setup, it would appear that one important factor was making sure teams in the same conference didn’t face one another right away. There were three conferences with more than one team represented. By separating them out, the committee deviated, slightly from RPI and KPI.
The end result is something that looks fairly balanced from a seeding standpoint. If conference matchups were a high priority, travel was not. There was a fair amount of concern about how much travel would play a part in the matchups. Would there be an East Coast region? Would they send teams to Hawaii to play? Will a neutral court be picked for some regions? In the end, I think the best choice was made. Travel is a factor and higher ranked teams, generally have get to travel less. And all of these teams know how to travel and compete in any gym. Home court is an advantage, but it is not a sure thing.
Round-by-Round Projections
I used the VBelo model and simulated the NCAA Conference tournament 50,000 times. Yes, 50,000! I upped the simulations because this is the big show and it deserves special treatment. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.
Let's break this down by region.
Westwood Region
#1 UCLA has the unique distinction of not only being the #1 seed and hosting a region but they were already slated to be the final site this year. So the Bruins will not be travelling any more this season, and they love that. The Bruins are 29-1 this season which includes going 11-0 at home. According to the model, UCLA will win the Westwood Region 94% of the time. This team has been dominant all season. And when they haven’t been dominant, they have found a way to win.
UC Irvine is a great underdog pick in this region. Last season, the Anteaters were very likely the first team out when it came to the national tournament selection. You take Henno missing the tournament in his senior year in 2025. Then you add in a tough loss at home in the Big West semifinals this year. You get a recipe for a revenge tour. This team is a little beat up so hopefully they were able to use this week to rest. The start of their tour will not be easy though.
Penn State is the lone representative out of the EIVA. Although they have the lowest odds to make it out of the region (2.47%), you cannot count out the Nittany Lions. The story all season has been the retirement of Men’s Volleyball coaching legend Mark Pavlik after 32 years at the helm. A good story can only get you so far, but the nation’s #1 blocking team and the nation’s #1 blocker (Owen Rose) will get you a lot farther.
Mānoa Region
#2 Hawaii didn’t need the Big West Tournament title to get the second seed in the national tournament. Getting to host a region was a major win for this team as they now have a 90% chance of making it out of this region. The ceiling on this team is sky high with loads of nation team experiences. Of Hawaii’s five losses, 3 came at home. It will be interesting to see how much the home crowd will help propel the Rainbow Warriors. Don’t be surprised when their match sells out and we get 10,000 fans at an NCAA Men’s Volleyball postseason match.
USC has about a 10% chance of making it out of this region on top. To do that, they would have to face Hawaii. Interestingly, USC and Hawaii were supposed to play earlier this season at the NIL Tournament that fell apart. It looks like we may get to see this matchup of excellent teams after all. The Trojans will go as far as Dillon Klein is about to carry them. He is one of the best hitters in the country and can turn the tide, even in the Stan Sherriff Center.
Belmont Abbey has the unenviable position of being the team to travel the farthest for the regionals. At over 4,600 miles of travel, the Crusaders want to make the most of this trip. Yes, it will be an uphill battle, but this Conference Carolinas powerhouse can’t be underestimated. You don’t put together a 20-5 season without offensive consistency and the nation’s second best opponent hitting percentage (.187).
Long Beach Region
#3 Long Beach may be the three seed, but the model has them as the second most likely to win the national tournament. After upsetting Hawaii in the Big West Finals, the volleyball world is now very familiar with Polish Freshman Wojciech Gajek and his cannon of an arm. This may be his first season as head coach for Nick MacRae, but he is a veteran when it comes to coaching this team already. It’s no surprise that they get out of their region almost 93% of the time in the model.
Loyola is one of the most interesting teams in the tournament, in my opinion. After the early season shocking win at Hawaii, all eyes were on the Ramblers as a favorite in the MIVA. The team battled with several injuries, including Aleksandar Sosa who was on the National Player of the Year watchlist. With Sosa back in action after almost 2 months off, this team is looking like the dangerous threat we thought they would be. Getting past Long Beach will be a challenge, but this is a team that can pull off an incredible win in hostile territory.
Saint Francis might have the best story in the tournament. The landscape for college athletics is challenging. SFU made the difficult decision to reclassify from D-I to D-III starting next year. The team knew this for over a year so it wasn’t a surprise that they had a little extra fire in them. After winning the NEC Championship for the first time in program history, the Red Flash want to play Cinderella and keep dancing. They are in a very tough region, but if anyone can prepare a team for this type of adversity, it is Mike Rumbaugh.
Muncie Region
Note: Technically, the matches will not be in Muncie, the home of Ball State. Due to a scheduling conflict with Worthen Arena, the matches will be played at the Riverview Health Arena at Innovation Mile in Noblesville, IN.
#4 Ball State is a force to be reckoned with. At 25-4, the Cardinals put up an incredibly strong resume to earn the #4 seed in the National Tournament. This team is efficient. They lead the country in both kills per set (13.49) and hitting percentage (.387). In his first season as their head coach, Mike Iandolo won the MIVA Coach of the Year. When you combine a high powered offense with the classic MIVA defense, you get a recipe for success. This success has given them a 66% chance of making it out of the regional.
Pepperdine has the unique distinction of being the only team in the country to defeat UCLA this season. The Waves were 13-1 in one of the toughest conferences in the nation. If they would have been able to win the MPSF Tournament, there is a decent chance they would have been hosting a region. Pepperdine swings hard, whether that is from the pins or the service line. They are dangerous and are likely out to avenge their loss to USC in the MPSF Tournament. The model like Pepperdine making it out of this region 33% of the time.
Fort Valley State has the tallest task in the bracket. First they face the only team to beat the unanimous #1 team in the country. Then they would have a date when the best offense in the country. If they make it out of the region, they are rewarded with facing UCLA in the final four. In 50,000 tournament simulations the Wildcats never came out on top. Don’t let these numbers fool you though. This team has seen the best teams in the country already this season so they know what it takes.
Awesome write-up, as usual!! Appreciate all your work this season and excited to see how things shake out!
Great job as always. The storyline for all these programs literally write themselves. ✍️
So much goodness I just wish someone would tell them