Number of the Day

1,005 - The growth of Men’s Volleyball has been a joy to witness these past few years. From adding dozens of teams to expanding the tournament to 12, the growth has been incredible. Today, the 1,005th match of the season will be played. This is the first time there has ever been over 1,000 matches in a season for men’s volleyball. Growth!

Another exciting consequence to growth is the tournament expansion. This year we had a record 5 at-large bids. This gave us an opportunity to get 2 at-large teams in the finals. In the very recent past, one or both of these teams would have been left out of the tournament all together. This is what growing the game looks like! The sport is better because of this growth and we all get to celebrate.

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Today’s Championship Match Projection

#2 Hawai’i (61%) vs UC Irvine (39%)

Players to Watch

Hawaii

• Tread Rosenthal (Setter) is dealing with a lower body injury from Saturday. His mobility and serving could be a major factor in how this match pans out.

• Justine Todd (Middle) had one of his best games of his career in the semifinals. UC Irvine loves to run the middle so Todd will likely see a lot of action tonight.

UC Irvine

• Trevor Clark (Middle) went from Junior College (San Diego Mesa College) to the NCAA National Collegiate Finals in just a year. Like Todd, Middle isn’t his natural position, but somehow that makes him all the more dangerous.

• Shane Aitken (Libero) was the only Libero named to the AVCA 1st Team All-American list. There is a reason for that. His passing is elite and that is why UCI can run the middle as much as they do. If Aitken continues his double-digit dig streak, that could spell trouble for Hawaii.

Path to the Championship

These two teams have had very different paths to the final match of the season. Here is a look at what it has looked like, according to the model.

Hawaii took a big loss (Loyola) early in the season and has been earning their elo points back over the season, with limited losses. The Rainbow Warriors are near their season high for VBelo, which is great for their chances. Beginning to end, Hawaii has been trending up and has been on almost everyone’s radar as a national championship contender.

Then you have UC Irvine. They started off hot with 11 straight wins. This was followed by a period of plateau with a slight downward trend due to some tough losses. That being said, the Anteaters are playing some of their best volleyball right now, and the numbers show that. From where they started the season, this is a much improved and incredibly dangerous team to overlook. For a decent part of the first half of the season, the model had UC Irvine above Hawaii. This is in direct contrast to the AVCA Coaches’ Poll that never had UCI above Hawaii all season.

In the end, these are two top programs in the country with incredible amounts of talent. It is going to come down to who plays the cleaner match. I fully expect to see high-level volleyball and a level of grit and determination that only the finals can bring out.

Number of the Day

3 - For the 3rd time in history, the Big West will be represented in both teams in the national championship. This is even more impressive since the Big West has only sponsored men’s volleyball since 2018. Monday’s championship will also end the long trend of teams winning back-to-back championships as Long Beach has been eliminated. It’s going to be a great match on Monday.

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Yesterday’s Postseason Scores

NCAA Semifinals

#2 Hawai’i (35%) def. #3 Long Beach (65%)
3-1 (25-15, 18-25, 25-21, 25-22)

Tread Rosenthal suffered a lower body injury in Set 3, but that didn’t stop the AVCA Player of the Year Finalist and 1st Team All-American from doing everything he could for his team. He finished with 36 assists, 2 kills, 2 aces, 5 digs, and 5 blocks. Speaking of blocks, Hawaii out-blocked Long Beach 14-6 to earn a trip to the National Championship match.

UC Irvine (51%) def. #4 Ball State (49%)
3-1 (25-19, 23-25, 27-25, 25-19)

UC Irvine hit .362 for the match while keeping Ball State to only .234. The Anteaters were carried on the broad shoulders of Trevor Clark. The middle finished with 14 kills (tying a career high from last week) and a hitting percentage of .722!

NCAA Championship

Monday, May 11th
7 pm ET / 4 pm PT / 1 pm HT
ESPN 2

Tell your family. Tell your friends. Tell strangers on the street. The more viewers the better it is for the sport.

Number of the Day

10 - The four teams competing in the semifinals have a combined 10 National Championship trophies. Long Beach and UC Irvine both have 4 while Hawaii has 2. Ball State has made the tournament 16 times in their long history, but have never made it to the championship match. With the 17th time be different for the Cardinals?

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Today’s Postseason Match Projections

NCAA Semifinals

#2 Hawai’i (35%) vs #3 Long Beach (65%)

#4 Ball State (49%) vs UC Irvine (51%)

Updated Bracket Projections

Number of the Day

6.96% - There is always a chance. That is one of the great things about volleyball, as an untimed sport. Also, everyone having a chance is at the core of VBelo. Saturday saw one of the biggest upsets of the 2026 season. With just a 6.96% chance of winning, UC Irvine handed UCLA their second loss of the season. This is the 7th biggest upset this season, according to the model. The match isn’t over until the final whistle (and maybe a challenge) and that is a beautiful thing.

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Yesterday’s Regional Finals Scores

#4 Ball State (63%) def. Pepperdine (37%)
3-2 (25-23, 23-25, 25-22, 19-25, 16-14)

World, meet Will Patterson. The Ball State middle went off for 12 kills on 18 swings and 0 errors in the thrilling win. He also added 11 blocks to get a huge double-double when everything is on the line.

UC Irvine (7%) def. #1 UCLA (93%)
3-2 (25-23, 19-25, 25-23, 19-25, 16-14)

What. A. Match. UC Irvine was backed into a corner. They were down 15-13 in set 5, but they weren’t out because of a successful challenge. Andreas Brink had a career high with 17 kills (.483) and what a time to go all out!

#3 Long Beach (91%) def. Loyola Chicago (9%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-21, 25-19)

This match was won (and lost) on the service line. Long Beach finished with 8 aces to only 8 service errors. A 1:1 ratio! Loyola had only 1 ace to their 17 service errors. Skyler Varga also seems to be ready for the postseason. He finished with 14 kills and a .520 hitting percentage.

#2 Hawai’i (85%) def. Southern California (15%)
3-1 (25-22, 24-26, 25-23, 32-30)

This match set a record for single-match NCAA Tournament attendance record at 10,300. Adrien Roure gave the home fans a show with 13 kills (.458%), 6 digs, and 7 huge aces. Yes, 7 aces in the National Quarterfinals. Big time match, big time performance.

Next Match

Saturday, May 9th - NCAA Semifinals

Number of the Day

20 - The match of the day was absolutely UC Irvine and Penn State. The difference maker was the middles for UC Irvine. The Anteater Middle duo of Goss and Clark combined for 20 kills and just 2 errors. They hit .620 as a pair! They needed this type of performance to hold back Penn State and it was just enough. They also combined for 10 blocks against the best blocking team in the country. The Anteaters have to be feeling good (and tired) after this victory.

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Yesterday’s Regional Opening Round Scores

Pepperdine (93%) def. Fort Valley State (7%)
3-0 (25-16, 25-18, 25-17)

Cole Hartke started the postseason the same way he has been playing all season long: dominant. The AVCA Player of the Year Semifinalist finished with 13 kills on 20 swings with 0 errors (.650%). The waves as a whole hit .541!

UC Irvine (55%) def. Penn State (45%)
3-2 (25-18, 27-29, 19-25, 25-17, 15-13)

The model thought this could be a battle and that is exactly what it was! One of the best passing teams in the country against one of the best blocking teams. In the end, UC Irvine found a way to win. The Anteaters never hit below .300 for a set and their middles were a huge part of this. It is so sad to see Pav leave, but going the distance in the NCAA tournament feels like a fitting send off.

Loyola Chicago (85%) def. Saint Francis (15%)
3-0 (30-28, 29-27, 25-20)

The Ramblers controlled the service line and the net all night. Loyola out-blocked SFU 9-2 and out-aced the Red Flash 8-2 in the tightly contested sweep.

Southern California (75%) def. Belmont Abbey (25%)
3-0 (25-18, 25-20, 25-21)

Belmont Abbey put up a strong fight, but ultimately it is the Trojans who will fight on. Dillon Klein led the Trojans with 11 kills. Zach Puentes (BAC) led all players with 12 kills in an impressive night.

Today’s Regional Finals Match Projections

Non-conference

Pepperdine (37%) vs Ball State (63%)

UC Irvine (7%) vs UCLA (93%)

Loyola Chicago (9%) vs Long Beach (91%)

Southern California (15%) vs Hawai’i (85%)

Number of the Day

4 - 4 regions. 4 winners. 4 home teams waiting in the wings. It all starts today as the NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball Championship kicks off. The twelve team bracket is exciting and right now every team wants to make it to the final site next weekend. With everything on the line, expect some great matches today across the country. All of these teams know what it takes to win and will put everything on the line.

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Today’s Postseason Match Projections

NCAA Regional Opening Round

Fort Valley State (7%) vs Pepperdine (93%)

Penn State (45%) vs UC Irvine (55%)

Loyola Chicago (85%) vs Saint Francis (15%)

Belmont Abbey (25%) vs Southern California (75%)

Number of the Day

12 - It happened! We officially know the 12 teams that will be competing in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. There will be more on the tournament this week (when I am not sleep deprived.) But for now, here is the wonderful bracket. (This might look familiar to some…)

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Yesterday’s Scores

GLVC

Missouri S&T (33%) def. Maryville (67%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-19, 25-18)

The Missouri S&T Miners were dominant in the first ever GLVC Championship match. They hit a blistering .420 in the sweep to avenge their regular season finale loss to Maryville. Congratulations to Missouri S&T!

Today’s Match Projections

We get some time off before the opening round of the regionals for the NCAA Tournament on May 1st. I will have a tournament projection soon but don’t freak out when you don’t get a daily email.

Number of the Day

7 - We now know the 7 automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament.

• Ball State (MIVA)

• Belmont Abbey (Conference Carolinas)

• Fort Valley State (SIAC)

• Long Beach State (Big West)

• Penn State (EIVA)

• Saint Francis (NEC)

• UCLA (MPSF)

Today at 4pm ET / 1pm PT / 10am HT, the NCAA will air their selection show on NCAA.com to announce the bracket, including the 5 at-large bids, the top four seeds who get regional byes, and the much anticipated location of these regionals.

NCAA.com

Give the show a watch and tell a friend or two to get ready for some great volleyball.

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Quick Bracketology

As I write this (about 12 hours for the Selection Show), I think we know a great deal about the teams who will be appearing in the largest National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball tournament with 12 teams. Let’s start with the at-larges.

At-Large Bids

• Hawaii - This is about as no-brainer as it gets. They excel at every metric. The Rainbow Warriors are in.

• Pepperdine - I’m not sure what one step behind no-brainer is, but that is where Pepperdine is. Even though they didn’t reach the MPSF finals, their incredible resume speaks for itself. Not to mention they are the only team in the country to defeat UCLA in the regular season.

• Loyola - They look good with the metrics. They are a top 6 team in both RPI and KPI with a solid resume of wins. The question mark for them was the health of their personnel, but with Sosa back in the mix, this question is gone and the Ramblers will be dancing.

• UC Irvine - This is where it starts to get interesting. The Anteaters have a lot going in their favor. They have top 10 RPI, KPI, and strength of schedule.

• USC - The final spot comes down to two programs: USC and Lindenwood. Lindenwood has the edge with RPI, KPI, and strength of schedule. USC has the edge when it comes to their record when facing teams in consideration for the NCAA tournament and RPI top 10 teams. Ultimately, I think the strength of the MPSF will help carry them to a 3rd team in the tournament.

The Regions

Now the fun part. This is where we get heavily into speculation. In spite of the geographical limitations and finances I think the committee will end up having the top four teams host regions. I think it will set a nice precedent that earning a top seed gets an extra reward. That being said, I will completely believe it if this is not the case. I am sure the committee knows that they will set the tone for future regional decisions and will not take that lightly.

Technically, only the top teams are seeded. Instead of trying to figure out how the committee will shape the regions, I wanted to put them into a standard 12-team format to see what it could look like. Big emphasis on could. So here we go!

This split keeps all of the conference matchups from happening until the final site. It does not take travel into consideration, which may end up playing a role. Honestly, if the bracket turned out like this, I would be okay with it. For the first year with 12 teams, this sure looks fun!

With this bracket being new, I am excited to see what we learn. What do you think the bracket will look like?

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Yesterday’s Scores

🏆🎟️Big West🎟️🏆

#2 Long Beach (63%) def. #1 Hawai’i (37%)
3-2 (20-25, 27-25, 22-25, 30-28, 15-11)

I had the pleasure of being at the Big West Tournament this week. Here is the Long Beach Championship press conference as well as a link to all of the press conferences, in case you want to hear from the players and coaches themselves.

2026 Big West Tournament

🏆ECC Championship🏆

#1 Roberts Wesleyan (75%) def. #2 St. Thomas Aquinas (25%)
3-1 (24-26, 25-18, 25-14, 25-21)

🏆🎟️EIVA🎟️🏆

#1 Penn State (93%) def. #6 Princeton (7%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-20, 25-18)

🏆🎟️MIVA🎟️🏆

#1 Ball State (76%) def. #2 Loyola Chicago (24%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-20, 25-20)

🏆🎟️MPSF🎟️🏆

#1 UCLA (85%) def. #3 Southern California (15%)
3-1 (25-23, 22-25, 28-26, 26-24)

🏆🎟️NEC🎟️🏆

#1 Saint Francis (83%) def. #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (17%)
3-1 (25-17, 20-25, 25-23, 25-20)

GLVC Semifinals

#1 Maryville (88%) def. #4 Roosevelt (12%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-23, 25-21)

#3 Missouri S&T (51%) def. #2 Rockhurst (49%)
3-2 (25-21, 20-25, 25-21, 17-25, 15-13)

Today’s Match Projections

🏆GLVC Championship🏆

#3 Missouri S&T (33%) vs #1 Maryville (67%)

Number of the Day

5 - The final 5 automatic tickets to the NCAA Tournament will be punched today. For some of these teams, this is the only way to get to the tournament. For others, they want to win, obviously, but they don’t need to win. After today, the NCAA Men’s Volleyball committee will meet to select the 5 at-large bids to the tournament. All these teams will join Fort Valley State and Belmont Abbey in the 12-team 2026 NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball Tournament. What an amazing and stressful day across the country.

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Yesterday’s Scores

Big West Semifinals

#1 Hawai’i (84%) def. #5 UC San Diego (16%)
3-1 (25-19, 19-25, 25-20, 25-13)

#2 Long Beach (58%) def. #3 UC Irvine (42%)
3-0 (29-27, 25-16, 25-18)

ECC Semifinals

#1 Roberts Wesleyan (98%) def. #4 American International (2%)
3-0 (25-19, 28-26, 25-9)

#2 St. Thomas Aquinas (78%) def. #3 Dominican (22%)
3-0 (25-17, 25-20, 25-20)

NEC Semifinals

#1 Saint Francis (82%) def. #4 Long Island (18%)
3-0 (25-15, 25-16, 25-19)

#2 Fairleigh Dickinson (42%) def. #3 UMES (58%)
3-1 (19-25, 25-23, 25-23, 25-23)

Today’s Match Projections

🏆🎟️Big West Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Hawai’i (37%) vs #2 Long Beach (63%)

🏆ECC Championship🏆

#1 Roberts Wesleyan (75%) vs #2 St. Thomas Aquinas (25%)

🏆🎟️EIVA Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Penn State (93%) vs #6 Princeton (7%)

🏆🎟️MIVA Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Ball State (76%) vs #2 Loyola Chicago (24%)

🏆🎟️MPSF Championship🎟️🏆

#1 UCLA (85%) vs #3 Southern California (15%)

🏆🎟️NEC Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Saint Francis (83%) vs #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (17%)

GLVC Semifinals

#4 Roosevelt (12%) vs #1 Maryville (88%)

#3 Missouri S&T (51%) vs #2 Rockhurst (49%)

Number of the Day

3 - Lower seeds had quite the day yesterday! Of the 6 matches, 3 of them were won by lower seeds. #6 Princeton continued their Cinderella story by taking down #2 NJIT in five. Then #3 USC took down #2 Pepperdine in the MPSF semifinals in another five set barn-burner. To really make a point, #5 UCSD went ahead and swept #4 UCSB to open the Big West Tournament. That would be the only sweep of the day!

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Quick RPI Update

Here is what RPI looks like headed into the final two match days before Selection Sunday.

Yesterday’s Scores

EIVA Semifinals

Penn State (95%) def. Charleston (5%)
3-2 (20-25, 25-19, 25-16, 22-25, 15-8)

Princeton (27%) def. NJIT (73%)
3-2 (35-37, 25-16, 22-25, 25-19, 15-11)

MPSF Semifinals

Southern California (24%) def. Pepperdine (76%)
3-2 (21-25, 25-21, 25-20, 22-25, 16-14)

UCLA (82%) def. BYU (18%)
3-1 (20-25, 25-19, 25-17, 25-18)

Big West Quarterfinals

UC San Diego (37%) def. UC Santa Barbara (63%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-22, 25-22)

UC Irvine (91%) def. CSUN (9%)
3-1 (25-20, 20-25, 25-16, 25-23)

Today’s Match Projections

Big West Semifinals

Hawai’i (84%) vs UC San Diego (16%)

Long Beach (58%) vs UC Irvine (42%)

ECC Semifinals

American International (2%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (98%)

Dominican (22%) vs St. Thomas Aquinas (78%)

NEC Semifinals

Long Island (18%) vs Saint Francis (82%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (42%) vs UMES (58%)

Number of the Day

1 - It is good to be a #1 seed. Really good. Right now, all of the top seeds are undefeated. It will be interesting to see how long that can last. Upsets are fun, but we have had a pretty chalky postseason so far. Yes, there have been a couple of upsets, including Princeton yesterday, but nothing that has impacted the National Tournament...yet.

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Yesterday’s Postseason Scores

MIVA Semifinals

#1 Ball State (84%) def. #4 McKendree (16%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-18, 25-21)

#2 Loyola Chicago (75%) def. #6 Lewis (25%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-20, 25-23)

EIVA Quarterfinals

#4 Charleston (65%) def. #5 Sacred Heart (35%)
3-2 (21-25, 25-18, 26-24, 23-25, 17-15)

#6 Princeton (19%) def. #3 George Mason (81%)
3-1 (23-25, 25-21, 25-17, 25-16)

MPSF Quarterfinals

#2 Pepperdine (97%) def. #7 Jessup (3%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-21, 25-22)

#3 Southern California (94%) def. #6 Vanguard (6%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-13, 25-21)

#1 UCLA (100%) def. #8 Concordia (0%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-15, 25-19)

#5 BYU (82%) def. #4 Stanford (18%)
3-1 (25-18, 25-14, 25-23, 21-25)

Today’s Match Projections

EIVA Semifinals

Charleston (5%) vs Penn State (95%)

NJIT (73%) vs Princeton (27%)

MPSF Semifinals

Pepperdine (76%) vs Southern California (24%)

UCLA (82%) vs BYU (18%)

Big West Quarterfinals

UC Santa Barbara (63%) vs UC San Diego (37%)

CSUN (9%) vs UC Irvine (91%)

Number of the Day

5 - Last Saturday, the last men’s volleyball match was played in Firestone Fieldhouse, the storied home of the Pepperdine Waves. It was only fitting that the gym was packed with a modern era record of 2,870 fans. With legendary coach Marv Dunphy, Pepperdine won 5 national titles and in 2017 the court was dedicated to him. The Waves will move to a modern facility on campus, The Mountain, next season, but Firestone will forever be among the classic men’s volleyball venues.

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Yesterday’s Scores

Two off days in a row. That was weird.

Today’s Postseason Match Projections

MIVA Semifinals

#4 McKendree (16%) vs #1 Ball State (84%)

#6 Lewis (25%) vs #2 Loyola Chicago (75%)

EIVA Quarterfinals

#4 Charleston (65%) vs #5 Sacred Heart (35%)

#3 George Mason (81%) vs #6 Princeton (19%)

MPSF Quarterfinals

#7 Jessup (3%) vs #2 Pepperdine (97%)

#3 Southern California (94%) vs #6 Vanguard (6%)

#8 Concordia (0%) vs #1 UCLA (100%)

#4 Stanford (18%) vs #5 BYU (82%)

Number of the Day

2 - Belmont Abbey joins Fort Valley State as the 2 teams with automatic qualifications for the NCAA Tournament. There are 5 more teams that will be decided this weekend and then 5 more by the selection committee on Sunday. There are still a lot of possibilities for what the tournament could look like. Right now, I think UCLA and Hawaii are a lock. Depending on what happens, I think Pepperdine, Long Beach, and Ball State are all in a really good spot. If I were UC Irvine, USC, or Loyola, I would have the mindset of having to win their conference tournament as they seem to be most on the bubble at this point.

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Yesterday’s Postseason Scores

🏆🎟️Conference Carolinas Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Belmont Abbey (81%) def. #2 Mount Olive (19%)
3-1 (25-19, 22-25, 25-23, 25-21)

The Crusaders relied on a balanced attack to win their third straight Conference Carolinas championship. 4 Crusaders had double-digit kills and 6 Crusaders had at least 11 attacks. With an offense that can be spread around like that, Belmont Abbey could cause some serious problems in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. I can’t wait.

Today’s Match Projections

We have a break until Wednesday when we will have MIVA, EIVA, and MPSF tournaments. Get ready for the sprint to the finish.

Number of the Day

12 - This has been the number on everyone’s mind this entire season. For the first time in NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball, the NCAA tournament will feature 12 teams. Currently, we know, without a doubt, that Fort Valley State will be one of those teams. I think we can be extremely confident in a couple more teams, but I will leave that for a conversation about bracketology. With so much on the line from this point on, every match has huge stakes.

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Yesterday’s Postseason Scores

🏆🎟️SIAC🎟️🏆

Fort Valley State (80%) def. Central State (20%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-22, 25-19)

The Wildcats are headed back to the big dance! The model liked their odds from the start and they looked in control yesterday. This is a dangerous team and I am thrilled to find out where they get placed in the new 12-team tournament format.

🏆IVA Championship🏆

Lincoln Memorial (74%) def. Catawba (26%)
3-1 (25-21, 20-25, 25-22, 25-20)

8. Straight. Championships. Lincoln Memorial is the gold standard when it comes to the IVA. I desperately want to live in a world where the IVA gets an auto-bid.

Conference Carolinas Semifinals

#1 Belmont Abbey (91%) def. #4 North Greenville (9%)
3-0 (30-28, 25-18, 25-13)

#2 Mount Olive (76%) def. #3 Lees-McRae (24%)
3-0 (25-15, 25-22, 25-19)

MIVA Quarterfinals

Great matches in the MIVA. Did we expect anything less?

#4 McKendree (69%) def. #5 Ohio State (31%)
3-2 (25-18, 25-18, 21-25, 22-25, 15-12)

#6 Lewis (26%) def. #3 Lindenwood (74%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-16, 25-22)

#2 Loyola Chicago (87%) def. #7 Purdue Fort Wayne (13%)
3-1 (27-25, 25-20, 26-28, 25-16)

#1 Ball State (99%) def. #8 Northern Kentucky (1%)
3-0 (25-18, 26-24, 25-15)

Yesterday’s Regular Season Scores

Big West

Long Beach (54%) def. UC Irvine (46%)
3-1 (25-19, 25-13, 20-25, 25-23)

UC Santa Barbara (51%) def. UC San Diego (49%)
3-2 (12-25, 31-29, 25-18, 24-26, 15-9)

This was the only Big West match with seeding implications. Ironically, the seedings didn’t really matter because regardless of the outcome, these two schools would meet next week in Irvine in the #4 vs #5 matchup.

Hawai’i (97%) def. CSUN (3%)
3-1 (25-15, 21-25, 25-14, 25-16)

ECC

Roberts Wesleyan (68%) def. St. Thomas Aquinas (32%)
3-2 (20-25, 21-25, 25-22, 25-17, 15-10)

Dominican (62%) def. American International (38%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-21, 25-15)

EIVA

Penn State (79%) def. George Mason (21%)
3-2 (20-25, 25-13, 22-25, 25-15, 15-13)

Kind of dramatic of Pav to finish the regular season like this, but I don’t hate it.

NJIT (91%) def. Sacred Heart (9%)
3-1 (25-21, 25-20, 15-25, 25-22)

Princeton (47%) def. Harvard (53%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-23, 25-19)

Princeton channeled the Ivy League to earn the last spot in the EIVA tournament.

GLVC

When the dust settled on the GLVC mayhem, Maryville landed the top spot. They were followed by Rockhurst at #2, Missouri S&T at #3, and Roosevelt in the 4 spot. I am so excited for this tournament. This first year conference has an incredibly bright future.

Jamestown (42%) def. Thomas More (58%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-22, 25-21)

Dear Thomas More, we will miss you. It is always a tragedy when a team is taken away.

Quincy (58%) def. Southwest Baptist (42%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-16, 25-23)

Rockhurst (84%) def. Roosevelt (16%)
3-1 (25-20, 28-26, 25-27, 25-8)

Maryville (55%) def. Missouri S&T (45%)
3-2 (18-25, 25-21, 25-23, 13-25, 15-9)

MPSF

The MPSF Tournament committee will release the seedings today. I will be shocked if UCLA and Pepperdine are not #1 and #2, respectively. Looking at the standings for the MPSF, I think they could just go with that and call it a day. It will be interesting to see how they deviate from that though.

Stanford (97%) def. Menlo (3%)
3-0 (25-16, 25-16, 25-13)

Pepperdine (80%) def. Southern California (20%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-22, 25-18)

UCLA (94%) def. BYU (6%)
3-1 (21-25, 25-17, 25-23, 27-25)

NEC

Long Island (95%) def. D’Youville (5%)
3-0 (25-11, 25-18, 25-19)

UMES (74%) def. Manhattan (26%)
3-1 (25-21, 26-24, 22-25, 25-17)

Saint Francis (77%) def. Fairleigh Dickinson (23%)
3-1 (20-25, 25-17, 25-20, 25-20)

Today’s Postseason Match Projections

🏆🎟️Conference Carolinas Championship🎟️🏆

#2 Mount Olive (19%) vs #1 Belmont Abbey (81%)

Another ticket to the NCAA Tournament is on the line today. These two teams met last season in this same match. Will UMO avenge last year’s loss? Or will Belmont Abbey continue to flex their muscles in the Conference Carolinas?

Number of the Day

1 - Today is a big day. We get the 🎟️1st ticket punched🎟️ to the NCAA tournament over in the SIAC. This is also the last day of the regular season. Many teams have just 1 match left to make the postseason or secure a seed in their conference tournament. With so much on the line today, I hope we get to see some incredible volleyball. Win or lose, these teams have given us an incredibly enjoyable regular season. Thank you!

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Yesterday’s Scores

IVA Semifinals

#1 Lincoln Memorial (81%) def. #4 Tusculum (19%)
3-2 (25-19, 21-25, 21-25, 25-19, 15-10)

Are you not entertained?

#3 Catawba (10%) def. #2 Barry (90%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-20, 25-21)

Underdogs? Challenge accepted! There is something in the water down in Florida!

5th Place Match

#6 UPR-Rio Piedras (37%) def. #5 Merrimack (63%)
3-1 (26-24, 25-23, 20-25, 25-21)

Huge win for UPR! From what I can tell this is only their second win against a National Collegiate team and the first since 2012!

SIAC Semifinals

#1 Fort Valley State (80%) def. #4 Edward Waters (20%)
3-2 (25-16, 21-25, 20-25, 25-22, 15-8)

Seriously. This is why volleyball is amazing.

#2 Central State (54%) def. #3 Benedict (46%)
3-1 (27-29, 25-15, 25-20, 25-23)

Big West

Long Beach (71%) def. UC Irvine (29%)
3-2 (25-17, 25-21, 24-26, 21-25, 15-9)

Long Beach has locked in the #2 seed and the coveted bye. UC Irvine will be the #3 seed.

Hawai’i (97%) def. CSUN (3%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-16, 25-16)

Hawaii has secured the top seed in the Big West Tournament, which comes with a bye to the semifinals.

EIVA

NJIT (90%) def. Sacred Heart (10%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-15, 25-19)

Penn State (78%) def. George Mason (22%)
3-2 (25-16, 22-25, 23-25, 25-18, 15-6)

Penn State has secured the #1 seed in the EIVA, which means they will host the conference tournament next week. Every other seed is still up for grabs!

Princeton (40%) def. Harvard (60%)
3-2 (18-25, 25-16, 20-25, 25-17, 16-14)

Princeton needed this win to keep their postseason hopes alive.

GLVC

Quincy (44%) def. Southwest Baptist (56%)
3-0 (25-14, 25-22, 25-19)

Thomas More (46%) def. Jamestown (54%)
3-1 (22-25, 27-25, 25-19, 25-20)

Rockhurst (81%) def. Roosevelt (19%)
3-0 (25-17, 25-22, 25-11)

MPSF

Jessup (93%) def. UC Merced (7%)
3-0 (25-15, 30-28, 25-19)

Vanguard (58%) def. Concordia (42%)
3-2 (12-25, 21-25, 29-27, 25-20, 15-7)

Stanford (93%) def. Menlo (7%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-18, 25-16)

NEC

Saint Francis (72%) def. Fairleigh Dickinson (28%)
3-0 (26-24, 25-22, 25-16)

SFU secured the regular season title and the #1 seed in the NEC tournament with this win.

UMES (71%) def. Manhattan (29%)
3-1 (25-19, 25-20, 22-25, 25-18)

Long Island (95%) def. D’Youville (5%)
3-0 (25-12, 25-17, 25-22)

LIU kept their postseason hopes alive with this win.

Today’s Match Projections

🏆IVA Championship🏆

#3 Catawba (26%) vs #1 Lincoln Memorial (74%)

The model liked the home team to win it all, but Catawba had different plans. LMU is looking for their 8th straight IVA Championship. 8. There are third graders alive right now who have never seen another team win the IVA Tournament!

🏆🎟️SIAC Championship🎟️🏆

#2 Central State (20%) vs #1 Fort Valley State (80%)

I know this is a #1 vs #2 situation, but this tournament has been surprisingly competitive. There have been zero sweeps and two 5-set matches in just 3 matches. This is a picturesque way for the conference tournament to go so far.

Conference Carolinas Semifinals

#4 North Greenville (9%) vs #1 Belmont Abbey (91%)

#3 Lees-McRae (24%) vs #2 Mount Olive (76%)

MIVA Quarterfinals

It. Is. Time. Get comfy because this is going to be fun (even if it goes chalk.)

#5 Ohio State (31%) vs #4 McKendree (69%)

#6 Lewis (26%) vs #3 Lindenwood (74%)

#7 Purdue Fort Wayne (13%) vs #2 Loyola Chicago (87%)

#8 Northern Kentucky (1%) vs #1 Ball State (99%)

Big West

Long Beach (54%) vs UC Irvine (46%)

UC Santa Barbara (51%) vs UC San Diego (49%)

CSUN (3%) vs Hawai’i (97%)

ECC

St. Thomas Aquinas (32%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (68%)

Winner gets the #1 seed. Loser gets #2.

Dominican (62%) vs American International (38%)

Regardless of the outcome, Dominican will be the #3 seed and AIC will be the #4 seed.

EIVA

There are a lot of seeding possibilities going into the final day, which is super exciting. 1 team and 5 seeds will be determined in just 3 matches.

George Mason (21%) vs Penn State (79%)

Sacred Heart (9%) vs NJIT (91%)

Princeton (47%) vs Harvard (53%)

Winner makes the EIVA Tournament. It’s that simple.

GLVC

I missed this yesterday, but Missouri S&T, Maryville, AND Rockhurst all have paths to the #1 seed.

• Maryville will be #1 if they win

• Missouri S&T will be #1 if they win 3-0 or 3-1

• Rockhurst will be #1 if they win 3-0 AND Missouri S&T wins 3-2

Roosevelt (16%) vs Rockhurst (84%)

Missouri S&T (45%) vs Maryville (55%)

Jamestown (42%) vs Thomas More (58%)

Quincy (58%) vs Southwest Baptist (42%)

MPSF

A committee will ultimately decide, but I can’t imagine UCLA and Pepperdine aren’t the top two seeds. The order may still be up for grabs though. Below that will definitely be interesting.

Menlo (3%) vs Stanford (97%)

Southern California (20%) vs Pepperdine (80%)

BYU (6%) vs UCLA (94%)

NEC

There will be at least two teams, and likely three, that tie for the fourth and final spot in the NEC tournament. So here we go.

• If FDU wins, they get the #2 seed.

• If FDU loses and Manhattan wins, Manhattan will be #2 and FDU will be #3.

• If FDU loses and UMES wins, FDU will be #2 and UMES will be #3.

• The #4 seed is messy and will come down to sets and potentially points. I can tell you that LIU will be rooting for UMES though.

D’Youville (5%) vs Long Island (95%)

Manhattan (26%) vs UMES (74%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (23%) vs Saint Francis (77%)

Number of the Day

20 - When middles are firing on all cylinders, you are in a great position. Last night, #1 UCLA put on a clinic for middles. The Bruins middles combined for 20 kills on 29 attacks and only 1 error. That is a combined .655 in the 4-set win over BYU. All of these numbers are just hard to make sense of.

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Yesterday’s Scores

IVA Tournament

Quarterfinals

#4 Tusculum (61%) def. #5 Merrimack (39%)
3-2 (19-25, 25-18, 21-25, 25-20, 15-13)

#3 Catawba (53%) def. #6 UPR-Rio Piedras (47%)
3-0 (25-16, 25-20, 25-16)

SIAC Tournament

Quarterfinals

#4 Edward Waters (91%) def. #5 Kentucky State (9%)
3-2 (24-26, 19-25, 25-21, 25-10, 15-10)

Kentucky State was so close to a massive upset win. For a team that had to cancel their season last year, this was definitely a way to finish the season with your head held high.

MPSF

UCLA (94%) def. BYU (6%)
3-1 (25-14, 17-25, 25-17, 25-18)

Pepperdine (56%) def. Southern California (44%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-23, 29-27)

Today’s Match Projections

IVA Tournament

Semifinals

#1 Lincoln Memorial (81%) vs #4 Tusculum (19%)

#3 Catawba (10%) vs #2 Barry (90%)

5th Place Match

#5 Merrimack (63%) vs #6 UPR-Rio Piedras (37%)

SIAC

Semifinals

#1 Fort Valley State (80%) vs #4 Edward Waters (20%)

#3 Benedict (46%) vs #2 Central State (54%)

Big West

Huge seeding implications today for the Big West. Hawaii can lock up the top seed with one win this weekend. Long Beach also needs just one win to secure a bye in the conference tournament.

UC Irvine (29%) vs Long Beach (71%)

CSUN (3%) vs Hawai’i (97%)

EIVA

Penn State, George Mason, NJIT, Charleston and Sacred Heart have all secured spots in the postseason. Harvard needs one win this weekend to secure the sixth, and final spot. Penn State can secure the top spot with one win. NJIT has the tiebreaker over GMU, if that ends up coming into play for a bye.

Sacred Heart (10%) vs NJIT (90%)

George Mason (22%) vs Penn State (78%)

Princeton (40%) vs Harvard (60%)

GLVC

Missouri S&T, Maryville, Rockhurst, and Roosevelt have locked down the four spots in the GLVC Tournament. Missouri S&T and Maryville play on Saturday in a match that will decide the top seed. There is also a scenario where Rockhurst jumps into the top two, but at that point, the matchup is the same #2 vs #3.

Quincy (44%) vs Southwest Baptist (56%)

Jamestown (54%) vs Thomas More (46%)

Roosevelt (19%) vs Rockhurst (81%)

MPSF

Seeding for the MPSF is done by committee. Conference record is a factor, but ultimately not the only factor.

UC Merced (7%) vs Jessup (93%)

Vanguard (58%) vs Concordia (42%)

Stanford (93%) vs Menlo (7%)

NEC

The top seed will be decided this weekend as SFU and FDU play two matches to end the season. The last two spots could get really interesting as Daemen has completed their regular season and Manhattan and UMES face off this weekend.

Fairleigh Dickinson (28%) vs Saint Francis (72%)

Manhattan (29%) vs UMES (71%)

D’Youville (5%) vs Long Island (95%)

Number of the Day

11.52 - UCLA is very good. Andrew Rowan plays for UCLA. Andrew Rowan is very good. He currently leads the nation with 11.52 assists per set. For context, this is .74 more than the next closest setter, Tread Rosenthal. The last time a setter fished the season with more than 11.5 assists per set was back in 2015. He is also the only active player with more than 4,000 career assists. Legendary.

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Yesterday’s Scores

Conference Carolinas Tournament

Quarterfinals

#4 North Greenville (75%) def. #5 Barton (25%)
3-1 (23-25, 25-18, 25-19, 25-23)

#3 Lees-McRae (53%) def. #6 Emmanuel (47%)
3-1 (25-20, 18-25, 25-22, 25-19)

GLVC

Missouri S&T (53%) def. Maryville (47%)
3-0 (25-16, 25-10, 25-18)

IVA

Barry (92%) def. UPR-Rio Piedras (8%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-14, 25-17)

MPSF

Jessup (83%) def. UC Merced (17%)
3-1 (28-26, 23-25, 25-12, 25-19)

Vanguard (71%) def. Concordia (29%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-21, 25-18)

Today’s Match Projections

IVA Tournament

Quarterfinals

#5 Merrimack (39%) vs #4 Tusculum (61%)

#3 Catawba (53%) vs #6 UPR-Rio Piedras (47%)

SIAC Tournament

Quarterfinals

#5 Kentucky State (9%) vs #4 Edward Waters (91%)

MPSF

BYU (6%) vs UCLA (94%)

Pepperdine (56%) vs Southern California (44%)

Number of the Day

7 - While many teams are finishing up their regular season still, the postseason starts today! The Conference Carolinas will start off with their quarterfinal matchups today. The winner of this tournament will get 1 of the 7 automatic qualifications to the NCAA National Collegiate Tournament, so it all matters. I will save the projections for another post, but let’s just say, it’s always good to get a bye in any tournament. And teams know this.

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Yesterday’s Scores

Nothing…but conference tournaments start today!

Today’s Match Projections

Conference Carolinas Tournament

#5 Barton (25%) vs #4 North Greenville (75%)

#6 Emmanuel (47%) vs #3 Lees-McRae (53%)

GLVC

Maryville (47%) vs Missouri S&T (53%)

IVA

UPR-Rio Piedras (8%) vs Barry (92%)

MPSF

Jessup (83%) vs UC Merced (17%)

Concordia (29%) vs Vanguard (71%)

Number of the Day

5.28 - As we near the end of the season, let’s take a look at some wildly impressive numbers. Cole Hartke (Pepperdine) is a machine. There is no way around it. He is currently averaging 5.28 kills per set. He is the only player in the country with more than 5. The last time we had just one player above the 5 kills per set mark was 2016, a decade ago. Why is this happening? My theory is parity (because of course it is.) More teams are fielding better players so sets get distributed and teams are forced to adjust. Hartke will almost certainly lead the nation in kills per set at the end of the season, and let me just say, it has been a joy to watch.

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Yesterday’s Scores

Nothing. Mondays. Sometimes they are extra sad.

Today’s Match Projections

Two days in a row without matches??? Don’t worry, this weekend will more than make up for it.

Number of the Day

1 - UCLA has been the #1 team, according to the AVCA Coaches’ Poll, all season. For VBelo, they have held the top spot for the majority for the season. But not all ranking systems are the same…looking at you RPI. Despite the best record in the country, UCLA is second in RPI. Why? Opponent’s winning percentage. This is 25% of the total RPI ranking and UCLA ranks 8th in this category. KPI is more nuanced so UCLA has been able to stay on top, but just barely.1 The good news for UCLA is that finishing the season against BYU will help bring RPI and KPI up. Regardless, the path to the #1 overall seed is ripe for the taking for the Bruins, no matter what RPI says.

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Yesterday’s Scores

MPSF

UCLA (100%) def. Menlo (0%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-16, 25-16)

Today’s Match Projections

This week is all about the weekend. The beginning of the week is mental preparation for fans.