Number of the Day

4 - 4 regions. 4 winners. 4 home teams waiting in the wings. It all starts today as the NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball Championship kicks off. The twelve team bracket is exciting and right now every team wants to make it to the final site next weekend. With everything on the line, expect some great matches today across the country. All of these teams know what it takes to win and will put everything on the line.

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Today’s Postseason Match Projections

NCAA Regional Opening Round

Fort Valley State (7%) vs Pepperdine (93%)

Penn State (45%) vs UC Irvine (55%)

Loyola Chicago (85%) vs Saint Francis (15%)

Belmont Abbey (25%) vs Southern California (75%)

We have been waiting all season for this and this weekend we will begin the opening round of the 2026 NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball Championship. This twelve team tournament has great matchups that will be sure to deliver top tier volleyball. So let’s dive in!

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The Bracket

For the first time, we get to see double digit teams in the postseason! Here is how it works. The top four teams technically the only seeded teams. These four seeds will each host a regional opening round and a final match. (Going into Selection Sunday there was no guarantee that these seeds would also host.) The four teams that win the regionals will advance to the final site. This year the final site will be UCLA’s Pauley Pavilion.

Looking at how the bracket was setup, it would appear that one important factor was making sure teams in the same conference didn’t face one another right away. There were three conferences with more than one team represented. By separating them out, the committee deviated, slightly from RPI and KPI.

The end result is something that looks fairly balanced from a seeding standpoint. If conference matchups were a high priority, travel was not. There was a fair amount of concern about how much travel would play a part in the matchups. Would there be an East Coast region? Would they send teams to Hawaii to play? Will a neutral court be picked for some regions? In the end, I think the best choice was made. Travel is a factor and higher ranked teams, generally have get to travel less. And all of these teams know how to travel and compete in any gym. Home court is an advantage, but it is not a sure thing.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the NCAA Conference tournament 50,000 times. Yes, 50,000! I upped the simulations because this is the big show and it deserves special treatment. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

Let's break this down by region.

Westwood Region

#1 UCLA has the unique distinction of not only being the #1 seed and hosting a region but they were already slated to be the final site this year. So the Bruins will not be travelling any more this season, and they love that. The Bruins are 29-1 this season which includes going 11-0 at home. According to the model, UCLA will win the Westwood Region 94% of the time. This team has been dominant all season. And when they haven’t been dominant, they have found a way to win.

UC Irvine is a great underdog pick in this region. Last season, the Anteaters were very likely the first team out when it came to the national tournament selection. You take Henno missing the tournament in his senior year in 2025. Then you add in a tough loss at home in the Big West semifinals this year. You get a recipe for a revenge tour. This team is a little beat up so hopefully they were able to use this week to rest. The start of their tour will not be easy though.

Penn State is the lone representative out of the EIVA. Although they have the lowest odds to make it out of the region (2.47%), you cannot count out the Nittany Lions. The story all season has been the retirement of Men’s Volleyball coaching legend Mark Pavlik after 32 years at the helm. A good story can only get you so far, but the nation’s #1 blocking team and the nation’s #1 blocker (Owen Rose) will get you a lot farther.

Mānoa Region

#2 Hawaii didn’t need the Big West Tournament title to get the second seed in the national tournament. Getting to host a region was a major win for this team as they now have a 90% chance of making it out of this region. The ceiling on this team is sky high with loads of nation team experiences. Of Hawaii’s five losses, 3 came at home. It will be interesting to see how much the home crowd will help propel the Rainbow Warriors. Don’t be surprised when their match sells out and we get 10,000 fans at an NCAA Men’s Volleyball postseason match.

USC has about a 10% chance of making it out of this region on top. To do that, they would have to face Hawaii. Interestingly, USC and Hawaii were supposed to play earlier this season at the NIL Tournament that fell apart. It looks like we may get to see this matchup of excellent teams after all. The Trojans will go as far as Dillon Klein is about to carry them. He is one of the best hitters in the country and can turn the tide, even in the Stan Sherriff Center.

Belmont Abbey has the unenviable position of being the team to travel the farthest for the regionals. At over 4,600 miles of travel, the Crusaders want to make the most of this trip. Yes, it will be an uphill battle, but this Conference Carolinas powerhouse can’t be underestimated. You don’t put together a 20-5 season without offensive consistency and the nation’s second best opponent hitting percentage (.187).

Long Beach Region

#3 Long Beach may be the three seed, but the model has them as the second most likely to win the national tournament. After upsetting Hawaii in the Big West Finals, the volleyball world is now very familiar with Polish Freshman Wojciech Gajek and his cannon of an arm. This may be his first season as head coach for Nick MacRae, but he is a veteran when it comes to coaching this team already. It’s no surprise that they get out of their region almost 93% of the time in the model.

Loyola is one of the most interesting teams in the tournament, in my opinion. After the early season shocking win at Hawaii, all eyes were on the Ramblers as a favorite in the MIVA. The team battled with several injuries, including Aleksandar Sosa who was on the National Player of the Year watchlist. With Sosa back in action after almost 2 months off, this team is looking like the dangerous threat we thought they would be. Getting past Long Beach will be a challenge, but this is a team that can pull off an incredible win in hostile territory.

Saint Francis might have the best story in the tournament. The landscape for college athletics is challenging. SFU made the difficult decision to reclassify from D-I to D-III starting next year. The team knew this for over a year so it wasn’t a surprise that they had a little extra fire in them. After winning the NEC Championship for the first time in program history, the Red Flash want to play Cinderella and keep dancing. They are in a very tough region, but if anyone can prepare a team for this type of adversity, it is Mike Rumbaugh.

Muncie Region

Note: Technically, the matches will not be in Muncie, the home of Ball State. Due to a scheduling conflict with Worthen Arena, the matches will be played at the Riverview Health Arena at Innovation Mile in Noblesville, IN.

#4 Ball State is a force to be reckoned with. At 25-4, the Cardinals put up an incredibly strong resume to earn the #4 seed in the National Tournament. This team is efficient. They lead the country in both kills per set (13.49) and hitting percentage (.387). In his first season as their head coach, Mike Iandolo won the MIVA Coach of the Year. When you combine a high powered offense with the classic MIVA defense, you get a recipe for success. This success has given them a 66% chance of making it out of the regional.

Pepperdine has the unique distinction of being the only team in the country to defeat UCLA this season. The Waves were 13-1 in one of the toughest conferences in the nation. If they would have been able to win the MPSF Tournament, there is a decent chance they would have been hosting a region. Pepperdine swings hard, whether that is from the pins or the service line. They are dangerous and are likely out to avenge their loss to USC in the MPSF Tournament. The model like Pepperdine making it out of this region 33% of the time.

Fort Valley State has the tallest task in the bracket. First they face the only team to beat the unanimous #1 team in the country. Then they would have a date when the best offense in the country. If they make it out of the region, they are rewarded with facing UCLA in the final four. In 50,000 tournament simulations the Wildcats never came out on top. Don’t let these numbers fool you though. This team has seen the best teams in the country already this season so they know what it takes.

Number of the Day

12 - It happened! We officially know the 12 teams that will be competing in the 2026 NCAA Tournament. There will be more on the tournament this week (when I am not sleep deprived.) But for now, here is the wonderful bracket. (This might look familiar to some…)

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Yesterday’s Scores

GLVC

Missouri S&T (33%) def. Maryville (67%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-19, 25-18)

The Missouri S&T Miners were dominant in the first ever GLVC Championship match. They hit a blistering .420 in the sweep to avenge their regular season finale loss to Maryville. Congratulations to Missouri S&T!

Today’s Match Projections

We get some time off before the opening round of the regionals for the NCAA Tournament on May 1st. I will have a tournament projection soon but don’t freak out when you don’t get a daily email.

Number of the Day

7 - We now know the 7 automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament.

• Ball State (MIVA)

• Belmont Abbey (Conference Carolinas)

• Fort Valley State (SIAC)

• Long Beach State (Big West)

• Penn State (EIVA)

• Saint Francis (NEC)

• UCLA (MPSF)

Today at 4pm ET / 1pm PT / 10am HT, the NCAA will air their selection show on NCAA.com to announce the bracket, including the 5 at-large bids, the top four seeds who get regional byes, and the much anticipated location of these regionals.

NCAA.com

Give the show a watch and tell a friend or two to get ready for some great volleyball.

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Quick Bracketology

As I write this (about 12 hours for the Selection Show), I think we know a great deal about the teams who will be appearing in the largest National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball tournament with 12 teams. Let’s start with the at-larges.

At-Large Bids

• Hawaii - This is about as no-brainer as it gets. They excel at every metric. The Rainbow Warriors are in.

• Pepperdine - I’m not sure what one step behind no-brainer is, but that is where Pepperdine is. Even though they didn’t reach the MPSF finals, their incredible resume speaks for itself. Not to mention they are the only team in the country to defeat UCLA in the regular season.

• Loyola - They look good with the metrics. They are a top 6 team in both RPI and KPI with a solid resume of wins. The question mark for them was the health of their personnel, but with Sosa back in the mix, this question is gone and the Ramblers will be dancing.

• UC Irvine - This is where it starts to get interesting. The Anteaters have a lot going in their favor. They have top 10 RPI, KPI, and strength of schedule.

• USC - The final spot comes down to two programs: USC and Lindenwood. Lindenwood has the edge with RPI, KPI, and strength of schedule. USC has the edge when it comes to their record when facing teams in consideration for the NCAA tournament and RPI top 10 teams. Ultimately, I think the strength of the MPSF will help carry them to a 3rd team in the tournament.

The Regions

Now the fun part. This is where we get heavily into speculation. In spite of the geographical limitations and finances I think the committee will end up having the top four teams host regions. I think it will set a nice precedent that earning a top seed gets an extra reward. That being said, I will completely believe it if this is not the case. I am sure the committee knows that they will set the tone for future regional decisions and will not take that lightly.

Technically, only the top teams are seeded. Instead of trying to figure out how the committee will shape the regions, I wanted to put them into a standard 12-team format to see what it could look like. Big emphasis on could. So here we go!

This split keeps all of the conference matchups from happening until the final site. It does not take travel into consideration, which may end up playing a role. Honestly, if the bracket turned out like this, I would be okay with it. For the first year with 12 teams, this sure looks fun!

With this bracket being new, I am excited to see what we learn. What do you think the bracket will look like?

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Yesterday’s Scores

🏆🎟️Big West🎟️🏆

#2 Long Beach (63%) def. #1 Hawai’i (37%)
3-2 (20-25, 27-25, 22-25, 30-28, 15-11)

I had the pleasure of being at the Big West Tournament this week. Here is the Long Beach Championship press conference as well as a link to all of the press conferences, in case you want to hear from the players and coaches themselves.

2026 Big West Tournament

🏆ECC Championship🏆

#1 Roberts Wesleyan (75%) def. #2 St. Thomas Aquinas (25%)
3-1 (24-26, 25-18, 25-14, 25-21)

🏆🎟️EIVA🎟️🏆

#1 Penn State (93%) def. #6 Princeton (7%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-20, 25-18)

🏆🎟️MIVA🎟️🏆

#1 Ball State (76%) def. #2 Loyola Chicago (24%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-20, 25-20)

🏆🎟️MPSF🎟️🏆

#1 UCLA (85%) def. #3 Southern California (15%)
3-1 (25-23, 22-25, 28-26, 26-24)

🏆🎟️NEC🎟️🏆

#1 Saint Francis (83%) def. #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (17%)
3-1 (25-17, 20-25, 25-23, 25-20)

GLVC Semifinals

#1 Maryville (88%) def. #4 Roosevelt (12%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-23, 25-21)

#3 Missouri S&T (51%) def. #2 Rockhurst (49%)
3-2 (25-21, 20-25, 25-21, 17-25, 15-13)

Today’s Match Projections

🏆GLVC Championship🏆

#3 Missouri S&T (33%) vs #1 Maryville (67%)

This first year conference tournament is ready to welcome the world to postseason GLVC volleyball. If you are worried that a new conference in not worth watching, think again! The GLVC has been playing great volleyball all season and this tournament should be electric!

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The Bracket

Another straight forward 4-team bracket hosted at the #1 seed. If it’s not broken don’t fix it! One of the interesting things about this particular tournament is when it is being played. With the semifinals being played today, there will be a match on Selection Sunday.

Maryville and Rockhurst tied as the regular season champions in this inaugural season of the GLVC. Maryville had the tie-breaker in sets won against Rockhurst and earned the #1 because of it.

Right behind them, Missouri S&T locked in the #3 seed and Roosevelt came in at #4. There was a battle for seedings that came down to the last day in the GLVC.

With eight teams in the conference, I am a little surprised we didn’t get a 6 or 8 team bracket. Hopefully this will be the case in years to come.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the GLVC tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

When you are the #1 seed and the home team, you are likely to win your tournament. That is just how the math works out. Maryville is the favorite here largely because of the home court advantage.

The VBelo Ratings for this tournament are wild. The top three teams are within 8 elo points of each other! This is practically a round error in terms of their difference. Missouri S&T and Rockhurst will have an absolute battle against each other.

Roosevelt may have the lowest odds of winning the tournament, but they could definitely make some noise. You can’t take anyone for granted in the GLVC!

Number of the Day

5 - The final 5 automatic tickets to the NCAA Tournament will be punched today. For some of these teams, this is the only way to get to the tournament. For others, they want to win, obviously, but they don’t need to win. After today, the NCAA Men’s Volleyball committee will meet to select the 5 at-large bids to the tournament. All these teams will join Fort Valley State and Belmont Abbey in the 12-team 2026 NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball Tournament. What an amazing and stressful day across the country.

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Yesterday’s Scores

Big West Semifinals

#1 Hawai’i (84%) def. #5 UC San Diego (16%)
3-1 (25-19, 19-25, 25-20, 25-13)

#2 Long Beach (58%) def. #3 UC Irvine (42%)
3-0 (29-27, 25-16, 25-18)

ECC Semifinals

#1 Roberts Wesleyan (98%) def. #4 American International (2%)
3-0 (25-19, 28-26, 25-9)

#2 St. Thomas Aquinas (78%) def. #3 Dominican (22%)
3-0 (25-17, 25-20, 25-20)

NEC Semifinals

#1 Saint Francis (82%) def. #4 Long Island (18%)
3-0 (25-15, 25-16, 25-19)

#2 Fairleigh Dickinson (42%) def. #3 UMES (58%)
3-1 (19-25, 25-23, 25-23, 25-23)

Today’s Match Projections

🏆🎟️Big West Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Hawai’i (37%) vs #2 Long Beach (63%)

🏆ECC Championship🏆

#1 Roberts Wesleyan (75%) vs #2 St. Thomas Aquinas (25%)

🏆🎟️EIVA Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Penn State (93%) vs #6 Princeton (7%)

🏆🎟️MIVA Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Ball State (76%) vs #2 Loyola Chicago (24%)

🏆🎟️MPSF Championship🎟️🏆

#1 UCLA (85%) vs #3 Southern California (15%)

🏆🎟️NEC Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Saint Francis (83%) vs #2 Fairleigh Dickinson (17%)

GLVC Semifinals

#4 Roosevelt (12%) vs #1 Maryville (88%)

#3 Missouri S&T (51%) vs #2 Rockhurst (49%)

The NEC has been highly competitive this year and the tournament should be exactly the same. The battle for this ticket to the NCAA Tournament will be must-watch volleyball. Seriously, these teams know the stakes and will play like it.

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The Bracket

Two very clean 4-team brackets on the same day! This is great. The NEC is straight forward with their bracket and have it hosted at the #1 seed, Saint Francis this year.

This year, the NEC had a very complicated conference record situation where three teams tied for the final spot. In the end, Long Island got the spot with tie-breakers. I know it would extend the tidy tournament to another day, but it almost feels like this should be a 6-team format instead of four Maybe in the future.

Adding to the drama, after this season SFU will be transitioning to D-III. That means this will be the last chance for the Red Flash to make it to the big dance. Expect a little extra fight from them, in addition to their usual grit.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the NEC tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

Every team has at least a 9% chance of winning it all. That is impressive parity! Saint Francis, the #1 seed and host has the best odds. And they should. 2 out of 3 tournament simulations ended with the Red Flash going to the NCAA Tournament.

When you look at the next three teams, they are all within 52 elo points of each other. This is a very tight grouping and could lead to some close matches.

I am excited to see how this tournament plays out and who gets the coveted golden ticket.

The ECC may be the smallest conference in National Collegiate volleyball, but there is some good volleyball being played there. Before you know it, the ECC will have enough teams to put in a request for an auto-bid to the NCAA Tournament. Jump on the bandwagon before you miss it.

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The Bracket

There is something so great about a simple 4-team bracket. #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3. It can be played relatively quickly (which helps save on costs) and in this case, every team makes the postseason. For the ECC, the #1 seed gets the honor of hosting and this year that is Roberts Wesleyan.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the East Coast Conference tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

The interesting thing about the ECC is that the 4 teams are spread out fairly evenly. This means all of the matches have clear favorites. Of course postseason upsets can happen, but this conference seems particularly situated to be chalk.

Roberts Wesleyan is the clear favorite. That being said, STAC will put up a strong battle for the title. Dominican and AIC will have to pull off incredible upsets to win a trophy.

With all of the excitement for auto-bids to the NCAA Tournament, don’t forget to check out the ECC Tournament.

Number of the Day

3 - Lower seeds had quite the day yesterday! Of the 6 matches, 3 of them were won by lower seeds. #6 Princeton continued their Cinderella story by taking down #2 NJIT in five. Then #3 USC took down #2 Pepperdine in the MPSF semifinals in another five set barn-burner. To really make a point, #5 UCSD went ahead and swept #4 UCSB to open the Big West Tournament. That would be the only sweep of the day!

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Quick RPI Update

Here is what RPI looks like headed into the final two match days before Selection Sunday.

Yesterday’s Scores

EIVA Semifinals

Penn State (95%) def. Charleston (5%)
3-2 (20-25, 25-19, 25-16, 22-25, 15-8)

Princeton (27%) def. NJIT (73%)
3-2 (35-37, 25-16, 22-25, 25-19, 15-11)

MPSF Semifinals

Southern California (24%) def. Pepperdine (76%)
3-2 (21-25, 25-21, 25-20, 22-25, 16-14)

UCLA (82%) def. BYU (18%)
3-1 (20-25, 25-19, 25-17, 25-18)

Big West Quarterfinals

UC San Diego (37%) def. UC Santa Barbara (63%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-22, 25-22)

UC Irvine (91%) def. CSUN (9%)
3-1 (25-20, 20-25, 25-16, 25-23)

Today’s Match Projections

Big West Semifinals

Hawai’i (84%) vs UC San Diego (16%)

Long Beach (58%) vs UC Irvine (42%)

ECC Semifinals

American International (2%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (98%)

Dominican (22%) vs St. Thomas Aquinas (78%)

NEC Semifinals

Long Island (18%) vs Saint Francis (82%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (42%) vs UMES (58%)

Six teams, all ranked. Every single one of them is dangerous in the postseason. All of them know that the best way to get to the National Tournament is to win the conference tournament. Expect some big time performances in Irvine.

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The Bracket

Another standard 6-team bracket hosted at a preselected host site. This year UC Irvine will host the festivities as the #3 seed. Quick side note, as I write this, I am sitting in the airport on my way to the Big West Tournament. So that’s fun!

Hawaii enters the Big West Tournament as the #1 seed after dropping only one match in conference play Rival Long Beach is right behind them at #2, earning the other bye.

This is a conference that is looking to get three teams to the NCAA Tournament so these next few days will be huge. UC Irvine should feel like every match matters, because it really does for them. At this point, a conference trophy would be nice for Hawaii and Long Beach, but they don’t need it like the Anteaters do.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the Big West tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

This is the most interesting conference projection so far. Neither the #1 seed nor the home team are the favorite. Also, no team has a majority of the chances to win the championship. There is a lot going on in this conference.

If you look closely, you will notice that Long Beach currently has the highest VBelo Rating. After defeating UCI last week, they just moved ahead of Hawaii. When you add in travel, Long Beach is coming into this tournament with a solid chance of winning it all.

Hawaii has the best chances to reach finals and a very good chance of winning it all. This is a situation where having the top seed is a big advantage in terms of the overall bracket path.

The UCSB vs UCSD match will be a great rematch from last week. Both of these teams have had incredible moments this year, but they have also struggled at times. The real question will be what team will show up today.

Who will rise to the top in the Big West? Will Long Beach lock in the auto-bid? Will Hawaii ride the #1 seed to victory? Can Irvine harness the power of the Bren? Who will pull off an upset? This is the Big West!

Number of the Day

1 - It is good to be a #1 seed. Really good. Right now, all of the top seeds are undefeated. It will be interesting to see how long that can last. Upsets are fun, but we have had a pretty chalky postseason so far. Yes, there have been a couple of upsets, including Princeton yesterday, but nothing that has impacted the National Tournament...yet.

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Yesterday’s Postseason Scores

MIVA Semifinals

#1 Ball State (84%) def. #4 McKendree (16%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-18, 25-21)

#2 Loyola Chicago (75%) def. #6 Lewis (25%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-20, 25-23)

EIVA Quarterfinals

#4 Charleston (65%) def. #5 Sacred Heart (35%)
3-2 (21-25, 25-18, 26-24, 23-25, 17-15)

#6 Princeton (19%) def. #3 George Mason (81%)
3-1 (23-25, 25-21, 25-17, 25-16)

MPSF Quarterfinals

#2 Pepperdine (97%) def. #7 Jessup (3%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-21, 25-22)

#3 Southern California (94%) def. #6 Vanguard (6%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-13, 25-21)

#1 UCLA (100%) def. #8 Concordia (0%)
3-0 (25-23, 25-15, 25-19)

#5 BYU (82%) def. #4 Stanford (18%)
3-1 (25-18, 25-14, 25-23, 21-25)

Today’s Match Projections

EIVA Semifinals

Charleston (5%) vs Penn State (95%)

NJIT (73%) vs Princeton (27%)

MPSF Semifinals

Pepperdine (76%) vs Southern California (24%)

UCLA (82%) vs BYU (18%)

Big West Quarterfinals

UC Santa Barbara (63%) vs UC San Diego (37%)

CSUN (9%) vs UC Irvine (91%)

The MPSF has its eyes set on getting two of the five at-large bids to the National Tournament. This tournament will play a major factor in if that hope can become a reality.

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The Bracket

The MPSF currently has a very straightforward 8-team bracket. I say currently, because the MPSF has used some very creative brackets in the past. The uniqueness for the MPSF comes with how the seeding works. With the expansion of the MPSF, teams do not end up playing every team in the conference. To adjust for this, a five person committee votes on the seeding.

UCLA, unsurprisingly, received the top spot. Zero surprise here. Pepperdine at #2 and USC at #3 were all in line with conference standings. In fact the only difference between the seedings and conference standings was Vanguard.

With ten teams currently in the MPSF, both Menlo and UC Merced missed out on the postseason. These teams will definitely look to regroup and make a splash in one of the top conferences in the nation next year.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the MPSF tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

UCLA enters the MPSF tournament as the favorite, but it won’t be a cake walk. If the regular season is any indication, it will come down to the Bruins and the Waves. Both of these teams want to make the NCAA Tournament, and I think they both will.

Being the host, BYU was able to rise to third most likely to win, but it is a long shot. USC will likely need to make the finals to have a strong resume for a potential at-large, but that is a tough road.

Given the range of VBelo for the MPSF, the bottom of the bracket will have a very hard time making a splash. Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? It is not.

Will someone stop UCLA? Can Pepperdine defend last year’s trophy? Can BYU ride the home court advantage to the national tournament? Who can pull off an upset?

The story all season in the EIVA was the retirement of Coach Mark Pavlik of Penn State. After 27 regular season titles and 11 EIVA Coach of the Year awards, everyone respects Pav and they want to be the ones to send him into retirement.

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The Bracket

The EIVA has a straight forward tournament setup with 6 teams making the postseason. The top two teams receive a bye into the semifinals. Most importantly, the #1 seed gets to host the tournament.

Penn State is no stranger to being the top dog in the EIVA. In the past 32 seasons (the Pav Era), they have 25 EIVA Tournament titles. After going undefeated in conference play, they are in a great spot to do it again.

NJIT received the other bye with a 9-3 EIVA record. They were followed closely by George Mason at 3. The middle of this conference will be highly competitive and will produce some fun matches.

The team left out of the tournament this season as Harvard. In a brutal three-way tie for 5th, the Crimson were the odd men out this time. After losing the season series to Princeton to finish 2026, the Crimson will look to 2027 with hopes of making the EIVA tournament.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the EIVA tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

Penn State is the heavy favorite and that feels like an understatement. With an over 80% chance of winning, it will take an all-time performance from an opponent to deny Pav. It definitely helps to get a bye and play at home.

NJIT and GMU have a slim chance of winning, but it is an uphill climb. Speaking of uphill climb, Sacred Heart is in an interesting position. Even though they have a 36% chance of making it to the semifinals, since they have to go through Penn State before the finals, their odds are less than Princeton’s.

We have seen dramatic upsets in the EIVA before, but will it happen this year? Can anyone stop Pav’s Pulverizers? Can NJIT or GMU rise to the top? What drama does the EIVA have in store for us?

Number of the Day

5 - Last Saturday, the last men’s volleyball match was played in Firestone Fieldhouse, the storied home of the Pepperdine Waves. It was only fitting that the gym was packed with a modern era record of 2,870 fans. With legendary coach Marv Dunphy, Pepperdine won 5 national titles and in 2017 the court was dedicated to him. The Waves will move to a modern facility on campus, The Mountain, next season, but Firestone will forever be among the classic men’s volleyball venues.

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Yesterday’s Scores

Two off days in a row. That was weird.

Today’s Postseason Match Projections

MIVA Semifinals

#4 McKendree (16%) vs #1 Ball State (84%)

#6 Lewis (25%) vs #2 Loyola Chicago (75%)

EIVA Quarterfinals

#4 Charleston (65%) vs #5 Sacred Heart (35%)

#3 George Mason (81%) vs #6 Princeton (19%)

MPSF Quarterfinals

#7 Jessup (3%) vs #2 Pepperdine (97%)

#3 Southern California (94%) vs #6 Vanguard (6%)

#8 Concordia (0%) vs #1 UCLA (100%)

#4 Stanford (18%) vs #5 BYU (82%)

Number of the Day

2 - Belmont Abbey joins Fort Valley State as the 2 teams with automatic qualifications for the NCAA Tournament. There are 5 more teams that will be decided this weekend and then 5 more by the selection committee on Sunday. There are still a lot of possibilities for what the tournament could look like. Right now, I think UCLA and Hawaii are a lock. Depending on what happens, I think Pepperdine, Long Beach, and Ball State are all in a really good spot. If I were UC Irvine, USC, or Loyola, I would have the mindset of having to win their conference tournament as they seem to be most on the bubble at this point.

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Yesterday’s Postseason Scores

🏆🎟️Conference Carolinas Championship🎟️🏆

#1 Belmont Abbey (81%) def. #2 Mount Olive (19%)
3-1 (25-19, 22-25, 25-23, 25-21)

The Crusaders relied on a balanced attack to win their third straight Conference Carolinas championship. 4 Crusaders had double-digit kills and 6 Crusaders had at least 11 attacks. With an offense that can be spread around like that, Belmont Abbey could cause some serious problems in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. I can’t wait.

Today’s Match Projections

We have a break until Wednesday when we will have MIVA, EIVA, and MPSF tournaments. Get ready for the sprint to the finish.

Number of the Day

12 - This has been the number on everyone’s mind this entire season. For the first time in NCAA National Collegiate Men’s Volleyball, the NCAA tournament will feature 12 teams. Currently, we know, without a doubt, that Fort Valley State will be one of those teams. I think we can be extremely confident in a couple more teams, but I will leave that for a conversation about bracketology. With so much on the line from this point on, every match has huge stakes.

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Yesterday’s Postseason Scores

🏆🎟️SIAC🎟️🏆

Fort Valley State (80%) def. Central State (20%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-22, 25-19)

The Wildcats are headed back to the big dance! The model liked their odds from the start and they looked in control yesterday. This is a dangerous team and I am thrilled to find out where they get placed in the new 12-team tournament format.

🏆IVA Championship🏆

Lincoln Memorial (74%) def. Catawba (26%)
3-1 (25-21, 20-25, 25-22, 25-20)

8. Straight. Championships. Lincoln Memorial is the gold standard when it comes to the IVA. I desperately want to live in a world where the IVA gets an auto-bid.

Conference Carolinas Semifinals

#1 Belmont Abbey (91%) def. #4 North Greenville (9%)
3-0 (30-28, 25-18, 25-13)

#2 Mount Olive (76%) def. #3 Lees-McRae (24%)
3-0 (25-15, 25-22, 25-19)

MIVA Quarterfinals

Great matches in the MIVA. Did we expect anything less?

#4 McKendree (69%) def. #5 Ohio State (31%)
3-2 (25-18, 25-18, 21-25, 22-25, 15-12)

#6 Lewis (26%) def. #3 Lindenwood (74%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-16, 25-22)

#2 Loyola Chicago (87%) def. #7 Purdue Fort Wayne (13%)
3-1 (27-25, 25-20, 26-28, 25-16)

#1 Ball State (99%) def. #8 Northern Kentucky (1%)
3-0 (25-18, 26-24, 25-15)

Yesterday’s Regular Season Scores

Big West

Long Beach (54%) def. UC Irvine (46%)
3-1 (25-19, 25-13, 20-25, 25-23)

UC Santa Barbara (51%) def. UC San Diego (49%)
3-2 (12-25, 31-29, 25-18, 24-26, 15-9)

This was the only Big West match with seeding implications. Ironically, the seedings didn’t really matter because regardless of the outcome, these two schools would meet next week in Irvine in the #4 vs #5 matchup.

Hawai’i (97%) def. CSUN (3%)
3-1 (25-15, 21-25, 25-14, 25-16)

ECC

Roberts Wesleyan (68%) def. St. Thomas Aquinas (32%)
3-2 (20-25, 21-25, 25-22, 25-17, 15-10)

Dominican (62%) def. American International (38%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-21, 25-15)

EIVA

Penn State (79%) def. George Mason (21%)
3-2 (20-25, 25-13, 22-25, 25-15, 15-13)

Kind of dramatic of Pav to finish the regular season like this, but I don’t hate it.

NJIT (91%) def. Sacred Heart (9%)
3-1 (25-21, 25-20, 15-25, 25-22)

Princeton (47%) def. Harvard (53%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-23, 25-19)

Princeton channeled the Ivy League to earn the last spot in the EIVA tournament.

GLVC

When the dust settled on the GLVC mayhem, Maryville landed the top spot. They were followed by Rockhurst at #2, Missouri S&T at #3, and Roosevelt in the 4 spot. I am so excited for this tournament. This first year conference has an incredibly bright future.

Jamestown (42%) def. Thomas More (58%)
3-0 (25-19, 25-22, 25-21)

Dear Thomas More, we will miss you. It is always a tragedy when a team is taken away.

Quincy (58%) def. Southwest Baptist (42%)
3-0 (25-22, 25-16, 25-23)

Rockhurst (84%) def. Roosevelt (16%)
3-1 (25-20, 28-26, 25-27, 25-8)

Maryville (55%) def. Missouri S&T (45%)
3-2 (18-25, 25-21, 25-23, 13-25, 15-9)

MPSF

The MPSF Tournament committee will release the seedings today. I will be shocked if UCLA and Pepperdine are not #1 and #2, respectively. Looking at the standings for the MPSF, I think they could just go with that and call it a day. It will be interesting to see how they deviate from that though.

Stanford (97%) def. Menlo (3%)
3-0 (25-16, 25-16, 25-13)

Pepperdine (80%) def. Southern California (20%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-22, 25-18)

UCLA (94%) def. BYU (6%)
3-1 (21-25, 25-17, 25-23, 27-25)

NEC

Long Island (95%) def. D’Youville (5%)
3-0 (25-11, 25-18, 25-19)

UMES (74%) def. Manhattan (26%)
3-1 (25-21, 26-24, 22-25, 25-17)

Saint Francis (77%) def. Fairleigh Dickinson (23%)
3-1 (20-25, 25-17, 25-20, 25-20)

Today’s Postseason Match Projections

🏆🎟️Conference Carolinas Championship🎟️🏆

#2 Mount Olive (19%) vs #1 Belmont Abbey (81%)

Another ticket to the NCAA Tournament is on the line today. These two teams met last season in this same match. Will UMO avenge last year’s loss? Or will Belmont Abbey continue to flex their muscles in the Conference Carolinas?

MIVA Madness. MIVA-geddon. MIVA Mayhem. It doesn’t matter what you call it, the MIVA is electric. The competition will be fierce and nothing is guaranteed at this point. Let the Madness commence.

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The Bracket

I am a big fan of how the MIVA has formulated their tournament. No committees, no byes, just a good, old-fashioned 8-team bracket played at higher seeds. Home court advantage is huge and teams are playing for it all season.

Ball State earned the top spot in the tournament after putting together an impressive season. It wasn’t shocking when the Cardinals took home both MIVA Player of the Year and Coach of the Year accolades this past week.

The fun part of the seedings is right in the middle. McKendree and Ohio tied at 9-7. Regardless of the tie-breaker, these two teams would face each other in the tournament. But the tie-breaker decided the home court. The teams split their season series with both away teams winning), but McKendree had the advantage in sets won in those matches 5-3.

First-year program Northern Kentucky made the tournament which is exciting to see. They just edged out Queens for that final spot. Having competitions across the board for seeds is par for the course with the MIVA. Parity, you love to see it.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the Conference Carolinas tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

Home Court is the name of the game for this tournament. That being said, the regular season was chaos. Of the four matchups in the quarter finals, only Ball State and NKU were a season sweep. Of the three remaining matchups, two were split by the away teams. So…this could really go a lot of ways.

Here is a look at just how chaotic the season was, according to the model. I’m not going to change the colors because I want to really show the chaos.

Ball State is the heavy favorite and that makes sense because they will never have to travel. They still have to win, but they start with the advantage. After that, the teams start to look really close. It feels like percentages mean very little to the MIVA.

Who do you think will win? Does Ball State dominate at home? Can Loyola outlast everyone? Will a lower seed go all the way?

Number of the Day

1 - Today is a big day. We get the 🎟️1st ticket punched🎟️ to the NCAA tournament over in the SIAC. This is also the last day of the regular season. Many teams have just 1 match left to make the postseason or secure a seed in their conference tournament. With so much on the line today, I hope we get to see some incredible volleyball. Win or lose, these teams have given us an incredibly enjoyable regular season. Thank you!

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Yesterday’s Scores

IVA Semifinals

#1 Lincoln Memorial (81%) def. #4 Tusculum (19%)
3-2 (25-19, 21-25, 21-25, 25-19, 15-10)

Are you not entertained?

#3 Catawba (10%) def. #2 Barry (90%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-20, 25-21)

Underdogs? Challenge accepted! There is something in the water down in Florida!

5th Place Match

#6 UPR-Rio Piedras (37%) def. #5 Merrimack (63%)
3-1 (26-24, 25-23, 20-25, 25-21)

Huge win for UPR! From what I can tell this is only their second win against a National Collegiate team and the first since 2012!

SIAC Semifinals

#1 Fort Valley State (80%) def. #4 Edward Waters (20%)
3-2 (25-16, 21-25, 20-25, 25-22, 15-8)

Seriously. This is why volleyball is amazing.

#2 Central State (54%) def. #3 Benedict (46%)
3-1 (27-29, 25-15, 25-20, 25-23)

Big West

Long Beach (71%) def. UC Irvine (29%)
3-2 (25-17, 25-21, 24-26, 21-25, 15-9)

Long Beach has locked in the #2 seed and the coveted bye. UC Irvine will be the #3 seed.

Hawai’i (97%) def. CSUN (3%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-16, 25-16)

Hawaii has secured the top seed in the Big West Tournament, which comes with a bye to the semifinals.

EIVA

NJIT (90%) def. Sacred Heart (10%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-15, 25-19)

Penn State (78%) def. George Mason (22%)
3-2 (25-16, 22-25, 23-25, 25-18, 15-6)

Penn State has secured the #1 seed in the EIVA, which means they will host the conference tournament next week. Every other seed is still up for grabs!

Princeton (40%) def. Harvard (60%)
3-2 (18-25, 25-16, 20-25, 25-17, 16-14)

Princeton needed this win to keep their postseason hopes alive.

GLVC

Quincy (44%) def. Southwest Baptist (56%)
3-0 (25-14, 25-22, 25-19)

Thomas More (46%) def. Jamestown (54%)
3-1 (22-25, 27-25, 25-19, 25-20)

Rockhurst (81%) def. Roosevelt (19%)
3-0 (25-17, 25-22, 25-11)

MPSF

Jessup (93%) def. UC Merced (7%)
3-0 (25-15, 30-28, 25-19)

Vanguard (58%) def. Concordia (42%)
3-2 (12-25, 21-25, 29-27, 25-20, 15-7)

Stanford (93%) def. Menlo (7%)
3-0 (25-20, 25-18, 25-16)

NEC

Saint Francis (72%) def. Fairleigh Dickinson (28%)
3-0 (26-24, 25-22, 25-16)

SFU secured the regular season title and the #1 seed in the NEC tournament with this win.

UMES (71%) def. Manhattan (29%)
3-1 (25-19, 25-20, 22-25, 25-18)

Long Island (95%) def. D’Youville (5%)
3-0 (25-12, 25-17, 25-22)

LIU kept their postseason hopes alive with this win.

Today’s Match Projections

🏆IVA Championship🏆

#3 Catawba (26%) vs #1 Lincoln Memorial (74%)

The model liked the home team to win it all, but Catawba had different plans. LMU is looking for their 8th straight IVA Championship. 8. There are third graders alive right now who have never seen another team win the IVA Tournament!

🏆🎟️SIAC Championship🎟️🏆

#2 Central State (20%) vs #1 Fort Valley State (80%)

I know this is a #1 vs #2 situation, but this tournament has been surprisingly competitive. There have been zero sweeps and two 5-set matches in just 3 matches. This is a picturesque way for the conference tournament to go so far.

Conference Carolinas Semifinals

#4 North Greenville (9%) vs #1 Belmont Abbey (91%)

#3 Lees-McRae (24%) vs #2 Mount Olive (76%)

MIVA Quarterfinals

It. Is. Time. Get comfy because this is going to be fun (even if it goes chalk.)

#5 Ohio State (31%) vs #4 McKendree (69%)

#6 Lewis (26%) vs #3 Lindenwood (74%)

#7 Purdue Fort Wayne (13%) vs #2 Loyola Chicago (87%)

#8 Northern Kentucky (1%) vs #1 Ball State (99%)

Big West

Long Beach (54%) vs UC Irvine (46%)

UC Santa Barbara (51%) vs UC San Diego (49%)

CSUN (3%) vs Hawai’i (97%)

ECC

St. Thomas Aquinas (32%) vs Roberts Wesleyan (68%)

Winner gets the #1 seed. Loser gets #2.

Dominican (62%) vs American International (38%)

Regardless of the outcome, Dominican will be the #3 seed and AIC will be the #4 seed.

EIVA

There are a lot of seeding possibilities going into the final day, which is super exciting. 1 team and 5 seeds will be determined in just 3 matches.

George Mason (21%) vs Penn State (79%)

Sacred Heart (9%) vs NJIT (91%)

Princeton (47%) vs Harvard (53%)

Winner makes the EIVA Tournament. It’s that simple.

GLVC

I missed this yesterday, but Missouri S&T, Maryville, AND Rockhurst all have paths to the #1 seed.

• Maryville will be #1 if they win

• Missouri S&T will be #1 if they win 3-0 or 3-1

• Rockhurst will be #1 if they win 3-0 AND Missouri S&T wins 3-2

Roosevelt (16%) vs Rockhurst (84%)

Missouri S&T (45%) vs Maryville (55%)

Jamestown (42%) vs Thomas More (58%)

Quincy (58%) vs Southwest Baptist (42%)

MPSF

A committee will ultimately decide, but I can’t imagine UCLA and Pepperdine aren’t the top two seeds. The order may still be up for grabs though. Below that will definitely be interesting.

Menlo (3%) vs Stanford (97%)

Southern California (20%) vs Pepperdine (80%)

BYU (6%) vs UCLA (94%)

NEC

There will be at least two teams, and likely three, that tie for the fourth and final spot in the NEC tournament. So here we go.

• If FDU wins, they get the #2 seed.

• If FDU loses and Manhattan wins, Manhattan will be #2 and FDU will be #3.

• If FDU loses and UMES wins, FDU will be #2 and UMES will be #3.

• The #4 seed is messy and will come down to sets and potentially points. I can tell you that LIU will be rooting for UMES though.

D’Youville (5%) vs Long Island (95%)

Manhattan (26%) vs UMES (74%)

Fairleigh Dickinson (23%) vs Saint Francis (77%)

Number of the Day

20 - When middles are firing on all cylinders, you are in a great position. Last night, #1 UCLA put on a clinic for middles. The Bruins middles combined for 20 kills on 29 attacks and only 1 error. That is a combined .655 in the 4-set win over BYU. All of these numbers are just hard to make sense of.

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Yesterday’s Scores

IVA Tournament

Quarterfinals

#4 Tusculum (61%) def. #5 Merrimack (39%)
3-2 (19-25, 25-18, 21-25, 25-20, 15-13)

#3 Catawba (53%) def. #6 UPR-Rio Piedras (47%)
3-0 (25-16, 25-20, 25-16)

SIAC Tournament

Quarterfinals

#4 Edward Waters (91%) def. #5 Kentucky State (9%)
3-2 (24-26, 19-25, 25-21, 25-10, 15-10)

Kentucky State was so close to a massive upset win. For a team that had to cancel their season last year, this was definitely a way to finish the season with your head held high.

MPSF

UCLA (94%) def. BYU (6%)
3-1 (25-14, 17-25, 25-17, 25-18)

Pepperdine (56%) def. Southern California (44%)
3-0 (25-21, 25-23, 29-27)

Today’s Match Projections

IVA Tournament

Semifinals

#1 Lincoln Memorial (81%) vs #4 Tusculum (19%)

#3 Catawba (10%) vs #2 Barry (90%)

5th Place Match

#5 Merrimack (63%) vs #6 UPR-Rio Piedras (37%)

SIAC

Semifinals

#1 Fort Valley State (80%) vs #4 Edward Waters (20%)

#3 Benedict (46%) vs #2 Central State (54%)

Big West

Huge seeding implications today for the Big West. Hawaii can lock up the top seed with one win this weekend. Long Beach also needs just one win to secure a bye in the conference tournament.

UC Irvine (29%) vs Long Beach (71%)

CSUN (3%) vs Hawai’i (97%)

EIVA

Penn State, George Mason, NJIT, Charleston and Sacred Heart have all secured spots in the postseason. Harvard needs one win this weekend to secure the sixth, and final spot. Penn State can secure the top spot with one win. NJIT has the tiebreaker over GMU, if that ends up coming into play for a bye.

Sacred Heart (10%) vs NJIT (90%)

George Mason (22%) vs Penn State (78%)

Princeton (40%) vs Harvard (60%)

GLVC

Missouri S&T, Maryville, Rockhurst, and Roosevelt have locked down the four spots in the GLVC Tournament. Missouri S&T and Maryville play on Saturday in a match that will decide the top seed. There is also a scenario where Rockhurst jumps into the top two, but at that point, the matchup is the same #2 vs #3.

Quincy (44%) vs Southwest Baptist (56%)

Jamestown (54%) vs Thomas More (46%)

Roosevelt (19%) vs Rockhurst (81%)

MPSF

Seeding for the MPSF is done by committee. Conference record is a factor, but ultimately not the only factor.

UC Merced (7%) vs Jessup (93%)

Vanguard (58%) vs Concordia (42%)

Stanford (93%) vs Menlo (7%)

NEC

The top seed will be decided this weekend as SFU and FDU play two matches to end the season. The last two spots could get really interesting as Daemen has completed their regular season and Manhattan and UMES face off this weekend.

Fairleigh Dickinson (28%) vs Saint Francis (72%)

Manhattan (29%) vs UMES (71%)

D’Youville (5%) vs Long Island (95%)

The SIAC used to be the new kids in town, but not so much anymore. This conference has shown impressive growth and will show the world yet another great conference tournament. Ooh yeah, there is a ticket to the NCAA Tournament on the line too.

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The Bracket

Typically, the SIAC has a six team tournament. But this season is not typical. With the cancellation/pause of both Morehouse and LeMoyne-Owen this year, the SIAC was left with only five teams, so a five team tournament it is. As usual, the entire tournament is played at a single host site and this year it is at Edward Waters. For those paying close attention, there are two conference tournaments in Florida this year.

When you look at the bracket it only looks like Fort Valley State gets a bye, but in reality, Benedict and Central State also make it straight to the semifinals. This setup still favors Fort Valley as they will be the only team playing a “tired” team.

Something to keep in mind for future seasons is that the NCAA requires six teams in a conference to get an automatic qualification to the NCAA Tournament. They still qualify this season, but it will be interesting to see how this pans out, especially if teams do not return next season.

Round-by-Round Projections

I used the VBelo model and simulated the SIAC tournament 10,000 times. Below are the results for how often each team progressed through the tournament.

Unsurprisingly, Fort Valley State is the heavy favorite to return to the big stage. 2 out of 3 simulations of the tournament ended with the Wildcats dancing. Just looking at the VBelo rating for the teams, there is a clear front runner. They are undefeated in conference play for a reason.

Looking down the bracket, the next three seeds are evenly matched. I think this is going to lead to some exciting matches in the lead up to the finals. As always, you should always keep a close eye on the home team.

Can anyone stop Fort Valley State? Will Central State play spoiler? Is Edward Waters ready to ride home court advantage to an upset?